ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 21st September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, September 21. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 flat as bank and healthcare stocks buoy the index

[2:10 pm] That's a wrap! The S&P/ASX 200 is trading flat, trading well-off early lows of (-0.59%). Gains from the major and regional banks, plus healthcare heavyweights CSL and Cochlear have offset broader weakness across most sectors (8 out of eleven sectors trading lower).

Overall, not a whole lot to see here. A few safe-haven sectors are holding up while yield-sensitive pockets like tech, miners and discretionary soften. The policy-sensitive two-year is 2 bps higher at 4.97%, still off the 5.08% high, and the 10-year is flat at 5.28%. Brent opened higher but has since turned, down 1.5% to US$101.84 a barrel and the lowest since 10 September, so at least something is moving in the right direction.

All of which sits against a backdrop where President Trump has told Fox News he is in a "deciding mode" and that "very big things" are coming in the near future. He framed his options as "wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically, or making a deal", adding that "If and when I blow the entire nation up, they better behave". At the same time, US and Chinese officials have opened pre-summit talks ahead of Xi Jinping's Washington visit. There's a lot up in the air.

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Tech stocks slump to a five-month low

[1:30 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is down 1.1%, trading at the lowest since 15 April. The index has tumbled 18% since 25 August, largely reflecting persistent weakness for key names like Wisetech (down 29.9% over the same period, lower 16 of the last 19 sessions). Most other major tech names like NextDC, Xero, Catapult Sports and more have all experienced similar price action, with substantial slumps in recent weeks.

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Firmus targets $5bn raise in one of Australia's largest IPOs

[1:22 pm] Data centre operator Firmus Grid is seeking to raise at least $5bn in an ASX listing, according to deal terms seen by Bloomberg.

• Base offering of at least $5bn plus an overallotment option of up to 10%, putting the deal on par with Medibank's 2014 float as one of the largest ever in Australia

• ASX debut targeted for 26 October, with the bookbuild running 6 to 7 October and the retail offering from 12 to 19 October

• Bank of America Securities, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Morgans Financial acting as joint lead managers

• Australian IPO proceeds just over $1bn this year, after exceeding $2bn in each of the previous two years, making the deal a material boost to the primary market

Source: Bloomberg

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Wheat rallies on positive US-China trade talk signals

[1:22 pm] Grain futures climbed in Chicago after both sides described Sunday's preliminary US-China trade discussions in New York as constructive.

• Wheat up 1.8% to US$7.27 a bushel, having jumped as much as 2% intraday, its biggest move in almost two weeks

• Corn up 1.3% to US$5.34 a bushel and soybeans up 0.6%

• Both sides talked up Sunday's session, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling it very successful and Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang describing a good atmosphere ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting in Washington

• China has promised at least US$17bn of farm exports, per the Trump administration, plus a separate pledge to take 25m tons of US soybeans annually, meaning fresh commitments would likely fall to wheat, corn and sorghum

• No Bull Ag's Susan Stroud expects actual deliverable commitments from the Washington talks, describing the market backdrop as fundamentally bullish with the rally potentially having further to run

Source: Bloomberg

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Macquarie flags listings risk to REA as Sydney and Melbourne lag

[12:11 pm] PropTrack's August listings data has national volumes down 2% year on year, with Macquarie retaining Neutral on REA Group and a $170 target price.

• National residential listings down 2% in August, with FY27 year to date also down 2%, which PropTrack attributes to three consecutive rate rises and the May budget tax changes

• Sydney and Melbourne down 18% and 17%, both underperforming the market since the May reforms and presenting a geo-mix risk to REA's buy-yield

• Volumes tracking around REA's FY27 guidance of flat to down low single-digits, though Macquarie flags tougher comps through the year

• Buy-yield guidance of low double-digit growth in FY27, against Macquarie's forecast of 10.5% including 1.5 percentage points of geo-mix impact, and a three-year average of 15%

• REA trading on 26x 12-month forward P/E, versus a 15-year average of 32x excluding COVID, with the broker noting the stock typically trades at a discount when the housing market is challenged

• Balance sheet optionality with $290m net cash at 30 June, available for bolt-on M&A with no new buyback program, and an Investor Day in October 2026 as the next catalyst

Company page: REA Group (REA)

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ASX 200 flat as tech and resource losses offset bank gains

[12:05 pm] The ASX 200 is trading flat as tech dips to a fresh five-month low and miners slip despite solid overnight gains for gold and copper. Energy was pushing up towards April highs but has given back almost 3% across the past three sessions. On the flip side, defensives are catching a bid, with real estate bouncing after a 14% fall since 5 August, alongside healthcare and staples.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Macquarie lifts Boss Energy target 11% on Honeymoon hub pathway

[12:00 pm] Macquarie has retained Outperform on Boss Energy and raised its 12-month price target to $2.00 after the company set out a path to 2.5Mlbs a year from Honeymoon in the early 2030s.

• Target price up 11% to $2.00 a share, with Jason's Deposit and Gould's Dam now folded into the greater Honeymoon DCF rather than carried at a resource multiple

• FY27 and FY28 EPS upgraded 5% and 4% on higher Honeymoon revenues, while FY29 EPS is cut 3% on higher D&A

• Three systems feeding one processing hub, a potential 65.9Mlbs centralised operation using a 13km trunkline to Jason's and loaded resin trucked 75km from Gould's Dam, which Macquarie says lowers AISC by $12/lb into the early 2030s

• AISC targeted at US$45/lb, or $65/lb, at 2.5Mlbs a year, with Jason's targeting production in early CY30 and Gould's Dam early CY31, both conditional on EPBC approvals and technical studies

• Honeymoon only 16% contracted on NFS production, roughly 3Mlbs, which Macquarie flags as heavy leverage to rising uranium prices

• Wellfield optimisation modelling now indicates 46% fewer wells and 28% higher PLS tenor, with plant debottlenecking in 4QFY27 lifting treatment to 130m3/h and a second water treatment plant in 3QFY28 adding 210m3/h of permeate

Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[11:16 am] Pantoro and Ramelius rally on guidance updates, nickel and the odd healthcare, retail and real estate stock has topped the leaderboard in early trade.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[11:16 am] Perpetual tanks after rejecting EQT's best and final offer and Telix tumbles after announcing its $1.65bn acquisition of ITM, while copper, gold and coal names slip in early trade.

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Labor primary vote hits new low as One Nation leads

[11:15 am] The latest Newspoll has support for the Albanese government falling to a fresh low, with One Nation holding the largest share of the primary vote.

• Labor primary vote down 10 points to 27%, from 37% a year earlier, in a poll of 1,244 voters carried in The Australian

• One Nation steady at around 30%, the largest share of support among the parties

• Albanese's personal approval also weakened, alongside the fall in the government's primary vote

• RBA expected to hike again next week, to address stubbornly high inflation worsened by higher fuel costs linked to the US-Iran war

Source: Bloomberg

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EQT says TPG and BGH offers undervalue Equity Trustees

[10:08 am] EQT Holdings has told both suitors their indicative prices fall short but has opened the door to due diligence in the hope of extracting improved proposals.

• Board concluded both offer prices do not adequately reflect value, after input from management, legal and financial advisers and feedback from shareholders

• Limited non-public information on offer to both parties, conditional on each signing a confidentiality deed including a standstill, drafts of which have already been provided

• FY26 final dividend of 20c per share protected, with both TPG and BGH confirming their indicative prices will not be reduced by the payout announced on 27 August

• Neither proposal conditional on the Superannuation Trustee Services exit or on the conclusion of the ASIC litigation, removing two potential execution hurdles

• No certainty of a binding offer, with the company noting no transaction may eventuate and shareholders not required to take any action

Company page: EQT Holdings (EQT)

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Catalyst lifts Cinnamon resource 370%, books maiden underground reserve

[10:06 am] Catalyst Metals has delivered a fivefold increase in the Cinnamon resource on the Plutonic Belt and converted part of it into a maiden underground reserve supporting a 7.5-year mine life. The stock is up 0.8% in early trade to $6.84, relatively in-line with the broader All Ords Gold Index, currently up 0.1%.

• Total resource up 370% to 541koz, at 6.9Mt grading 2.5g/t, split between an open pit resource of 2.9Mt at 1.2g/t for 108koz and an underground resource of 4Mt at 3.4g/t for 434koz

• Maiden underground reserve of 232koz at 3.0g/t, underpinning a life of mine production target with a 7.5-year mine life at steady state output of 40-50koz a year

• Life of mine AISC estimated at $2,357/oz, with wide continuous mineralisation and favourable ground conditions supporting bulk scale mining

• Cinnamon becomes the sixth ore source on the Plutonic Belt in Catalyst's plan to lift production toward 200koz a year, which the company says reduces overall operating risk at Plutonic

• Reserve growth optionality from repeat conglomerate units, with recent drilling intersecting mineralisation across several units and future programs to target them rather than infill

• September 2025 ten-year guidance now a general guide only, with the company citing changed permitting timelines, operational delays and processing capability, alongside group reserves now above the previously reported 1.5Moz

Company page: Catalyst Metals (CYL)

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Helloworld to buy Crown Currency Exchange for $135m

[10:04 am] Helloworld Travel has entered a binding agreement to acquire foreign exchange retailer Crown Currency Exchange, adding 68 stores across Australia.

• Purchase price of $135m for 100% of CCE, an implied 6.1x multiple on FY26 underlying EBITDA of $22m

• Funded through an NAB loan facility, a vendor share placement and a vendor loan facility, with the mix between the three not disclosed

• 68 stores and over 200 employees, head office in Hobart, with CEO Emily Palermo and chairman Greg Woolley both staying with the business

• Andrew Burnes, David Hall and Mike Smith to join the CCE board at completion, with Burnes describing the acquisition as highly complementary to Helloworld's retail agency businesses and a channel to expand CCE through the agent network

• Completion expected at the end of October 2026, with Helloworld's view that shareholder approval is not required under Listing Rule 11.1 though it has sought ASX confirmation

Company page: Helloworld Travel (HLO)

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Telix to acquire ITM in US$1.65bn all-scrip radioisotope deal

[9:55 am] Telix Pharmaceuticals has agreed to merge with German radioisotope producer ITM Isotope Technologies Munich, issuing 105.8m shares to secure control of the world's only globally scaled commercial-grade lutetium-177 supply.

• Upfront consideration of US$1.65bn on a cash-free, debt-free basis, comprising US$1.25bn in Telix scrip at US$11.841 per share, US$302m of assumed net debt and US$96m of management equity rollover and seller transaction expenses

• Contingent consideration of up to US$700m, split between US$250m tied to FDA approvals of ITM-11 across three indications through to 2031 and US$450m linked to FY30 net global sales above US$150m, payable in cash or shares at Telix's election

• Dilution of 23.7% to existing holders, who will own about 76.3% of the enlarged register, with shares issued at closing subject to escrow of up to 15 months

• ITM 2025 revenue of US$273m, grown at a 40% CAGR since 2021, with a distribution network across more than 65 countries and a profitable, cash-generative isotope manufacturing business

• Pro forma 2026 revenue and income above US$1.3bn on unaudited management estimates, with manufacturing growth, cost savings and pipeline optimisation expected to support a positive EBITDA contribution from 2027

• ITM-11 adds a late-stage therapeutic asset, having completed the Phase 3 COMPETE trial in GEP-NETs, with the fully enrolled COMPOSE study due for interim analysis in H1 2027

• Close targeted by end of FY26, subject to Telix shareholder approval under the ASX Listing Rules and regulatory conditions, with holders of over 90% of ITM shares already on board

Company page: Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

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Resolute cuts guidance as Syama struggles persist

[9:55 am] Resolute Mining has downgraded 2026 production and cost guidance after operational constraints in Mali continued to hold back its Syama gold mine through the third quarter.

• Syama 2026 production cut to 150-160koz with AISC lifted to US$2,300-2,400/oz, reflecting lower production partly offset by timing-related inventory movements

• Group 2026 production now 205-225koz at an AISC of US$2,250-2,350/oz, based on a US$4,000/oz gold price assumption

• July and August gold poured of just 15.5koz combined, significantly below expectations, with September tracking at about 15koz and Q3 now expected around 31koz

• Q4 production guided to 45-50koz, contingent on external constraints easing around movement and availability of mining consumables, equipment and contractor resources in Mali

• Explosives and fleet availability the core constraint, with an onsite emulsion plant due for commissioning by November 2026, a new mining contractor mobilising and additional equipment arriving through September and October

• Rest of the portfolio tracking to plan, with Mako guidance unchanged at 55-65koz at AISC of US$1,600-1,800/oz and Doropo construction on schedule and on budget ahead of first concrete pour next month

Company page: Resolute Mining (RSG)

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Ramelius guides FY27 below ests on volume, better on cost

[9:52 am] Ramelius has set FY27 guidance and lifted its medium-term outlook, flagging a step-up in growth capital to expand Mt Magnet.

• FY27 production guidance of 205-225koz, with the 215koz midpoint 7% below the 230koz ests and also below the ~220koz consensus flagged by UBS ahead of the release

• FY27 AISC guidance of $2,150-2,350/oz, with the $2,250/oz midpoint 10% below the $2,500/oz ests, based on a $5,500/oz gold price assumption

• FY27 growth capex of $480-570m, with the $525m midpoint 19% above the $440m ests, while exploration and resource definition of $90-110m lands in line

• Mt Magnet plant capex up 26% to $280m from $223m previously, on inflation, greater fixed price coverage and infrastructure to enable mill capacity beyond the planned 4.3Mtpa

• FY30 production lifted to 560-610koz at an AISC of $2,100-2,40/oz, an 11% increase on the October 2025 plan and 205% growth on FY26 production

• Growth plans described as fully funded, with cash, gold and investment holdings above $1bn and free cash flow of up to $1.5bn forecast in FY30 at $5,500/oz

Company page: Ramelius Resources (RMS)

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Index rebalance sparks wild closing auction swings across the ASX 200

[9:30 am] Friday's close marked the cutoff for the latest S&P/ASX 200 rebalance, with index funds forced to trade and some names swinging sharply in the closing auction. What you'd expect is some degree of mean reversion for movers like SKS, Tasmea, Healius and Jumbo Interactive.

The S&P/ASX 300 additions and removals recorded some of the most wild swings. Here are the additions.

And these are the removals.

These are the S&P/ASX 200 additions, which traded in a relatively orderly fashion.

While the S&P/ASX 200 removals also traded fairly business-as-usual.

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Pantoro tracking in line with guidance ahead of North American roadshow

[9:26 am] Pantoro Gold has provided an operational update on its Norseman project in Western Australia ahead of investor presentations in North America.

• Quarter-to-date production of 19,130 ounces as of 19 September, which the company says is in line with guidance

• FY27 guidance of 90,000 to 105,000 ounces, announced 9 July 2026, with first half production expected to represent 40% to 45% of the annual total

• Green Lantern has commenced mining and is producing ore, the second open pit operation at Norseman

• Underground personnel approaching target levels, with full engagement expected from October as Pantoro and its underground mining contractor continue a coordinated recruitment push

• Racetrack drilling expanding the high grade zone, with an updated five year plan targeted for the December quarter to bring the deposit into the mine plan

• Annual Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve statement due end of September

Company page: Pantoro Gold (PNR)

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Perpetual rejects EQT's best and final $22.50 proposal

[9:24 am] Perpetual has knocked back a further revised non-binding proposal from EQT entity Windflower and confirmed the engagement process with the private equity group has concluded.

• Cash scheme consideration of $22.50 per share, unchanged from EQT's 27 July proposal that the board had already found was not in shareholders' best interests

• Permitted dividend of up to 60c per share for 1H27 allowed on top of the scheme consideration without adjustment, though any dividend remains subject to board determination and franking availability

• Board says the proposal undervalues Perpetual, citing assumptions underpinning the offer that give rise to an unacceptable degree of transaction execution risk

• Expressed as best and final absent a competing proposal, which Perpetual takes as concluding the engagement process that began when it opened limited non-public information to EQT on a non-exclusive basis in July

• Wealth Management sale still on track for Q4 2026, with Perpetual expecting to move to a net cash position and flagging capacity for additional capital management alongside dividends

• Strategic focus remains on Corporate Trust and Asset Management, with no action required from shareholders

Company page: Perpetual (PPT)

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Netwealth flags proposed class action over First Guardian options

[9:17 am] Netwealth has received draft court documents from solicitors acting for a proposed representative plaintiff alleging breaches of duties tied to First Guardian investment options.

• Claims directed at two subsidiaries, Netwealth Investments and Netwealth Superannuation Services, over the offering and monitoring of certain First Guardian options available through the Netwealth Superannuation Master Fund

• No proceeding filed yet, with the company saying it has only received a letter and draft court documents at this stage

• Matters previously addressed with ASIC, through a court-enforceable undertaking and a compensation program completed in January 2026

• Netwealth reviewing the proposed claim and will update the market as appropriate, with no quantum or further detail disclosed

Company page: Netwealth Group (NWL)

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Ingenia rejects revised $5.05 Warburg Pincus proposal

[9:16 am] Ingenia Communities has knocked back a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Warburg Pincus, saying the offer substantially undervalues the group.

• Revised proposal at $5.05 cash per stapled security, up 6% from the earlier $4.75 indicative proposal, structured as a scheme of arrangement for 100% of issued capital and reduced by any distributions paid before implementation

• Board says the price substantially undervalues Ingenia and is not in the best interests of securityholders, despite improved terms, after consultation with financial advisers and external legal counsel

• Proposal conditional on Ingenia abandoning the Peet acquisition, alongside due diligence, documentation, regulatory approvals and a unanimous board recommendation

• Greenhill appointed as independent adviser to the board, which Ingenia says reflects its commitment to a rigorous assessment process

• Board remains open to proposals representing compelling value, having engaged with Warburg Pincus to test whether a more appropriate valuation could be put forward

• No action required from securityholders, with the board reiterating confidence in the existing strategic plan and growth trajectory

Company pages: Ingenia Communities (INA), Peet (PPC)

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Tower renews FY27 reinsurance at lower cost to premium

[9:14 am] Tower has completed the renewal of its reinsurance programme for the year ending 30 September 2027, lifting catastrophe cover while cutting the cost as a share of premium.

• Reinsurance premium expense of 9.5% of gross written premium in FY27, down from 10.6% in FY26, which CEO Paul Johnston attributes to favourable global reinsurance conditions, business performance and the FY25 and FY26 rollout of risk-based pricing across more perils

• Catastrophe upper limit up 6% to $970m from $915m in FY26, including a pre-paid reinstatement that covers two large catastrophe events

• Third catastrophe limit up 18% to $100m from $85m, and restructured from an annually pre-paid limit to pre-agreed terms payable only if two catastrophe events occur

• Catastrophe event excesses unchanged at $20m, with cover spanning home, motor, boat and commercial portfolios across New Zealand and the Pacific

• Several reinsurance partners signing new multi-year agreements, which Tower says gives greater certainty around future reinsurance costs and catastrophe excesses

Company page: Tower (TWR)

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Lycopodium wins $49.4m EPCM contract for Greatland's Havieron

[9:13 am] Lycopodium has been awarded the engineering, procurement and construction management contract for the pre-production phase of Greatland Resources' Havieron gold-copper project in Western Australia.

• Contract valued at $49.4m, with Lycopodium engaged as project delivery partner leading execution of the pre-production phase

• Scope covers project management, engineering and procurement, plus coordination of trade contractors and suppliers, project controls, and construction and commissioning management

• Work already underway, following receipt of a Limited Notice of Award in early June 2026

• Havieron is a high-grade underground gold-copper deposit in the Paterson Province of the East Pilbara, about 45km east of Greatland's Telfer mine

• Ore to be processed through existing Telfer infrastructure, one of Australia's largest gold processing facilities with two 10Mtpa trains, under Greatland's Telfer Hub strategy

Company pages: Lycopodium (LYL), Greatland Resources (GGP)

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Saudi pipeline outage leaves European refiners without term crude

[8:50 am] Saudi Aramco has told European buyers they will receive no crude next month under long-term contracts, sending physical premiums in the North Sea to records.

• No Saudi term allocations to Europe next month, a decision applying to all European buyers after drone strikes shut the East-West pipeline, with OECD Europe having imported 577,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude in June

• Dated Brent topped US$130 a barrel this week for the first time since April, while Brent futures settled near US$104 and European diesel pushed above US$200 a barrel

• Aramco pivoting volumes back through Hormuz, selling tens of millions of barrels to Asian buyers just outside the strait, cargoes that sit further from European refiners who face the Red Sea or a five-week haul around Africa

• East-West pipeline capacity of up to 7m barrels a day, with Aramco targeting about half within days and full capability in roughly six weeks

• US Gulf Coast jet fuel at US$4.55 a gallon, about 20c off wartime highs, with New York at US$4.75 and weekly jet fuel production the lowest since early March

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Gulf leaders push for US-Iran settlement as Houthi strikes widen

[8:49 am] Qatar's prime minister has called for a coordinated Gulf response to the seven-month US-Iran war, with Gulf leaders set to meet Trump at the UN General Assembly this week.

• Gulf leaders aiming to meet Trump on UNGA sidelines Tuesday, per Axios, with the US pushing for a resolution that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and Trump telling Fox News he would probably be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian

• Messages being passed between Washington and Tehran, according to Qatar PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, who called the Houthi escalation irresponsible and said the war should be a wake-up call for the region

• Hormuz flows at a six-month high, with CENTCOM's Admiral Brad Cooper saying transit lanes are clear of mines and Gulf allies have shipped over 1bn barrels in recent months, while Iran maintains the strait is closed and has exported zero barrels

• Riyadh hit by rare air-raid alerts, the first since the war's March-April peak, with the WSJ reporting an airstrike on jet fuel facilities at King Khalid International Airport and the State Department warning of rapid escalation risk

• Houthis pressing on Bab al-Mandeb, taking the port city of Mokha and nearby islands and imposing a blockade on Saudi ships in the Red Sea, the kingdom's main workaround export route

• Qatar rules out bypass pipelines, with Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi saying the strait will never be obsolete, while Qatar Airways CEO Hamad Al-Khater called the war the airline's single largest crisis in its history

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Trump announces Greenland security deal with Denmark

[8:49 am] Donald Trump says the US has struck an agreement with Greenland and Denmark granting permanent control over security on the Danish territory, with a signing expected at the UN General Assembly this week.

• US to begin developing a large military presence in Greenland immediately, per Trump's Truth Social post, on top of the existing US presence under a decades-old defence agreement with Denmark

• Trump says there will be no cost to the United States, claiming the deal addresses all US concerns and guarantees permanent ability to act on Greenland's security

• Stops well short of acquisition, which Trump had previously insisted on, with Greenland maintaining it is not for sale and the EU uniting to rebuke the push earlier this year

• Frederiksen frames it as sovereignty-preserving, saying it recognises the territorial integrity of the Kingdom and Greenlanders' right to self-determination while strengthening Arctic and North Atlantic security

• Official text not yet available, with the three governments expecting to sign at the UNGA and the White House yet to provide further detail

Source: CNBC

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Bessent and He meet as US delays China tariff decision ahead of summit

[8:47 am] Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held all-day talks in New York on Sunday to tee up deliverables for the Sept. 24 Trump-Xi summit in Washington.

• New tariffs on China and other partners held off until after the summit, per Bloomberg sources, preserving the threat as negotiating leverage, with a trade report recommending a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods shelved for now

• Trade truce expires Nov. 10, the suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs that capped Trump's second-term China duties at about 20%, with the US reportedly offering only a six-month extension

• Rare earths and critical minerals the main friction point, with a senior US official saying China's performance on restoring flows "has not been up to par" and magnet shipments to Japan slumping

• AI guardrails on the agenda for the first time, covering both open and closed-weight models, with Bessent saying the US is open to avoiding shared risks and bifurcation of the two systems

• Outstanding May commitments still unresolved, including Chinese pledges to lift US agricultural purchases by US$17bn a year and buy more than 200 Boeing aircraft

• Analysts expect small steps rather than a breakthrough, with Ashton Intelligence's Anna Ashton saying status quo is probably both sides' best expectation

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SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weighting more than doubles in rebalance

[8:46 am] SpaceX will account for 2.82% of the Nasdaq 100 when the quarterly rebalance takes effect Monday, up from about 1.28%.

• Weighting confirmed at 2.82%, calculated off Friday's close and matching the provisional figure previously published by the index provider

• Current 1.28% weight dates to July inclusion, when most SpaceX shares were still locked up, even after Nasdaq eased rules to let newly listed large caps in sooner and scrapped the 10% public float requirement

• Seventh-largest Nasdaq 100 member by market value at over US$2trn, yet its current weighting does not place it inside the top 20 by percentage weight

• Passive flows are the mechanism, with more than 200 products tracking the index and over US$800bn in assets globally, including the US$482bn Invesco QQQ Trust

• Macquarie's Edward Yoon says rebalances now carry more weight, pointing to Iran geopolitics, inflation concerns, renewed tariff uncertainty, rate moves and AI and tech volatility as drivers of price action in the names involved

Source: Bloomberg

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Buffett steps down as Berkshire chairman after six decades

[8:38 am] Warren Buffett has handed the chairmanship of Berkshire Hathaway to his son Howard, completing a succession that began with Greg Abel taking the CEO role.

• Buffett becomes chairman emeritus effective immediately and stays on the board, with Howard Buffett, a director since 1993, taking the chair and Susan Decker continuing as lead independent director

• Abel runs the business while Howard guards culture and values, with Buffett writing that Abel exceeded his sky-high expectations and has been making the decisions that matter for some time

• Berkshire up 1.3% in 2026 against the S&P 500's 11.6%, with rising oil prices and a market preference for higher-growth names weighing, per CNBC

• Cash pile of US$365.5bn at the second quarter, down from a record near US$397bn the prior period, with buybacks stepped up to US$4.5bn in the quarter

• Buffett has pledged to fully dispose of his roughly US$140bn Berkshire stake by 2034, having already ceded the annual letter to Abel and skipped the May meeting stage

• Track record of 19.7% compound annual return since 1965, nearly double the S&P 500, with the conglomerate generating US$44.5bn in operating earnings last year

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Bond yields hit 5% as record options expiry drives volume surge

[8:37 am] Bloomberg observes US stocks churning into one of the largest options expiries on record, with the 10-year Treasury yield back at 5%.

• 10-year Treasury yield up seven basis points to 5%, driven by bets that oil near US$100 keeps inflation elevated and forces further Fed hikes

• US exchange volume above 26bn shares, roughly 40% above the 12-month average, with about US$7trn of options notional expiring at quarterly triple witching, one of the largest ever according to Citadel Securities

• S&P 500 up 0.2% despite most constituents falling, with a chipmaker rally doing the work, Nasdaq 100 up 0.7% and the Dow down 0.2%

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are down 57 pts (-0.65%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed in a heavy triple-witching session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eking out gains while the Dow slipped, capping a week dominated by the Fed's first rate hike in three years

  • S&P 500 (+0.17%),Nasdaq (+0.39%), Dow (-0.18%) and Russell 2000 (-0.50%)

  • US weekly recap: S&P 500 (-0.08%), Nasdaq (+0.72%), Dow (-1.69%), Russell 2000 (-1.50%)

• Bonds remain the drag, with the US 10-year yield finishing the week at 5.0% and policy-sensitive 2-year at 4.75%

• Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire Hathaway chairman after 56 years, while US and Chinese officials opened pre-summit talks ahead of Xi Jinping's Washington visit

• Trump said he is in "deciding mode" on Iran, framing his options as "wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically, or making a deal", as Saudi Arabia told European refiners they will get no crude next month and US diesel hit a record US$6.49 a gallon on a 12th straight day of records