ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 20th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, July 20. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

---

New updates

ASX 200 higher as energy, banks and defensives hold up

[2:05 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is currently up 18 points (+0.21%) as continued upward pressure on oil prices pushes energy stocks to a one-month high, and renewed bid for defensives like telcos, banks, staples and healthcare. Large caps are holding up relatively well, with banks trading broadly higher, Woodside up 1.5% and Telstra up 0.5%.

Decent breadth all things considered, with 116 constituents (58%) trading higher and more risk-oriented indices like the Small Ords and Emerging Companies up 0.5% and 1.1%. Overall, nothing much to see here as we count down to August reporting season, now just two weeks away.

---

US futures mixed, KOSPI nears three-month low

[1:53 pm] S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are currently up 0.13% and 0.44% respectively, while Dow futures sit around breakeven. Meanwhile, the KOSPI has dipped another 3.4% at the time of writing, now down 27.6% from its 22 June record close. Heavyweight Samsung opened the session down 5.5%, briefly bounced back to breakeven but now down 4.6%. SK Hynix experienced a similar price swing, currently down 3.9%.

---

Chinese traders unwind leverage at fastest pace since 2016

[1:52 pm] Chinese stock traders cut leveraged positions at the quickest rate since the 2015-2016 crash on Friday, as fears the AI-driven rally had overstretched triggered a global equities rout

• Margin debt in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 2.8% to 2.75 trillion yuan (US$405bn) on Friday, the fastest contraction since January 2016

• Chinese equities tumbled broadly, with the Star 50 down more than 7% and the CSI 300 off 3.6%

• Memory-chip names amplified the unwind, with heavy margin financing in the sector prompting investors to liquidate other positions to meet margin calls

• Caution ahead of CXMT's blockbuster listing likely added to the pullback

• Markets rebounded Monday after state funds lifted local stock holdings and the regulator flagged meetings with key industry participants

Source: Bloomberg

---

Hedge funds build biggest kiwi net short since 2006

[1:52 pm] Leveraged funds have pushed bearish bets on the New Zealand dollar to a record, wagering that rebounding oil prices will compound pressure on the energy-importing economy

• Leveraged net short positioning rose 1,907 contracts to 29,582 in the week to July 14, a record in CFTC data going back to 2006

• Asset managers trimmed shorts but stayed near their most bearish since December

• Oil is the key driver, with US-Iran tensions pushing crude back above $90 a barrel and threatening a negative terms-of-trade shock for import-reliant New Zealand

• The bets contrast with a hawkish RBNZ, with the kiwi up about 3% since the July 8 decision to 58.54 US cents and outperforming all G10 peers over the period

• Positioning surprised some, with Nomura noting bearish bets were expected to be covered once the RBNZ hiking cycle was confirmed

Source: Bloomberg

---

Lithium stocks fail to hold

[12:52 pm] Chinese lithium carbonate futures opened 1.1% higher this morning, now down 2.3% to 148,900 yuan a tonne. Prices have now fallen just shy of 30% from the mid-May peak of 209,800 yuan.

A bellwether name like PLS Group was up as much as 2.5% intraday, now down by the same amount. The stock is now breakeven for the year, despite rallying as much as 60% year-to-date.

---

Energy stocks trade broadly higher

[12:50 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is up 1.98% at noon, trading at the highest since 15 June. Most names are up 1-3%, including coal, refiners, oil and gas plays.

---

Webjet chairman Gary Weiss buys 2.4m shares as stock sits at record low

[12:23 pm] Webjet chairman Gary Weiss has disclosed the on-market purchase of 2.4m shares, lifting his beneficial holding by around 11% to 24.5m shares.

• Weiss acquired 2.4m shares, taking his beneficial holding to 24.5m, an increase of about 11%

• Webjet share are trading around record lows, down 54% year-to-date to 39.5 cents

• The company's FY26 result on 20 May triggered an 11.2% slide soft FY26 numbers, a weak FY27 update and a cut to Webjet's Virgin arrangements.

• Webjet received 90-91 cent cash takeover offers from BGH and Helloworld that lapsed earlier this year.

• The balance sheet offers a floor, with net cash of $93.9m, no borrowings and net assets of $138.4m against a market cap near $157m

• Webjet has resumed its $25m buyback paused during the takeover process, signalling the board sees value at current levels

Company page: Webjet Group (WJL)

---

Andrew Forrest takes 16.8% EQ Resources stake from Oaktree

[12:20 pm] Andrew Forrest's private vehicle Wonongarra has agreed to buy Oaktree's entire holding in tungsten producer EQ Resources, taking a 16.8% cornerstone stake. This was announced before market open, with EQR shares up 15.9% at the open and currently up 32.7% to 29 cents.

• Wonongarra will acquire 862,131,779 shares and 35,555,556 options, about 16.8% of issued capital, from cornerstone investor Oaktree

• The deal is at the shareholder level only, with no impact on EQR's strategy, operations, management or employees

• Board rights transfer with the stake, including the right to appoint a director

• Oaktree has backed EQR since 2023, supporting the Barruecopardo (Spain) acquisition and Mt Carbine (North Queensland) expansion that made EQR the largest Western tungsten producer

• Forrest framed the move as backing Australian critical minerals capability amid concentrated global tungsten supply, noting EQR is ramping production and starting to generate cash flow

Company page: EQ Resources (EQR)

---

Analysts' take on Regis Resources

[12:18 pm] Regis Resources issued its first FY27 production, cost and growth capital guidance last Friday alongside a Q4 result at the upper end of prior targets, with production broadly in line to slightly soft but cost and capex materially above most institutional estimates, splitting sentiment between those seeing a genuine cost step up and others viewing the outcome as less negative than feared. The stock fell 8.4% on the day.

• RBC Capital Markets maintained Outperform, lowered target from $11.10 to $9.00, viewing guidance as softer than expected but seeing capital return as a likely near-term catalyst and retaining conviction despite the weaker earnings outlook.

• JPMorgan maintained Neutral, lowered target from $6.60 to $6.10, treating production as broadly in line but flagging cost inflation from mine sequencing and productivity as the key concern pending a clearer cost trajectory.

• Macquarie resumed Outperform, lowered target from $8.00 to $6.80, viewing production as modestly disappointing but highlighting balance sheet flexibility and an underappreciated dividend lever, with growth optionality deferred rather than lost.

---

ASX 200 fades early gains

[10:32 am] The S&P/ASX 200 was up as much as 0.45% in early trade but now sits just 0.13% higher. Several sectors including materials, industrials, staples, discretionary and healthcare opened slightly higher but have since flipped back into negative territory.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

---

Posco calls for overhaul of Australian coking coal pricing

[10:29 am] South Korea's Posco, the largest single private buyer of Australian exports, wants the industry to rework how coking coal is priced, arguing benchmark indices are distorted by a handful of trades, the AFR reports.

• Posco says small spot trades inflate indices, with head of raw materials procurement Jahyun Koo calling reliance on a narrow set of transactions a structural vulnerability

• Proposed fixes include filtering outlier trades, incorporating broader data points, more sophisticated weighting and rebalancing index-based pricing against periodic fundamental reviews

• The push mirrors pressure in iron ore, where BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue face Beijing's central buyer seeking new price-setting methodologies

• Ownership churn has thinned market data, with BHP's divestment of non-core Queensland coking coal mines leaving new owners less willing to feed data to price reporting agencies

• The stakes are large, with Australia the world's biggest coking coal exporter at $38bn last year, alongside its $117bn-a-year iron ore sector

Source: AFR

---

Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:08 am] Energy stocks have opened broadly higher, while soaring oil prices weighed on gold miners and airlines.

---

South32 beats FY26 production guidance as it pivots to base metals via Alcoa sale

[9:52 am] South32 exceeded group production guidance across its portfolio in FY26 and lifted Q4 sales volumes 15%, while advancing its transition to an upstream base metals company through the sale of its aluminium business to Alcoa.

• Aluminium production beat FY26 guidance by 1% and alumina was in line, while Sierra Gorda (copper) and Cannington (silver-lead-zinc) each exceeded guidance by 2% and manganese beat by 2%.

• Q4 group sales volumes rose 15%, aided by final Mozal inventory sales and restored rail access at Cannington, driving an expected working capital unwind of about US$710m in H2 FY26.

• The US$5.6bn Alcoa sale of the aluminium value chain (ex-Mozal), plus about US$1.2bn of rehabilitation provisions, is set to leave roughly 85% of pro-forma earnings from base and precious metals, with completion expected in H2 FY27.

• Sierra Gorda approved its fourth grinding line, expected to lift South32's copper equivalent production by about 30% from FY31, and delivered record annual distributions of US$401m.

• Hermosa's Taylor project advanced, with US$710m invested in FY26 and a Final Record of Decision received on 7 July completing federal permitting, ahead of first production in H2 FY28.

• South32 returned US$327m to shareholders in FY26, including US$292m in fully-franked dividends, with its US$2.6bn capital management program now 92% complete.

Company page: South32 (S32)

---

Vysarn posts record FY26 earnings, folds in NewGround irrigation acquisition

[9:29 am] Vysarn's preliminary FY26 result beat consensus across revenue, EBITDA and NPBT, with management flagging a step change in scale and earnings ahead after a year of heavy growth investment.

• Revenue up 31.5% to $140.1m vs $133.7m ests (5% beat)

• EBITDA up 35.3% to $28.9m vs $27.8m ests (4% beat)

• NPBT up 38.7% to $20.9m vs $20.5m ests (2% beat), exceeding guidance

• EBIT up 38.0% to $21.2m and net tangible assets up 22.0% to $65.4m

• Cash of $12.1m with debt of $5.0m, leaving material undrawn capacity to fund future organic and inorganic growth

• Cash deployed across sustaining and growth capex, including new drill rigs, MAR units and wastewater plants, plus rig mobilisations and income tax instalments

Company page: Vysarn (VYS)

---

Aurelia Metals beats gold guidance, posts strongest quarterly cash flow since 2018

[9:27 am] Aurelia Metals delivered FY26 gold production above the top of revised higher guidance and lifted its cash balance to $143.9 million, with a new financing package and outgoing CEO Bryan Quinn set to depart in July.

• FY26 gold production of 50.4koz beat revised guidance of 45 to 50koz, with copper 2.5kt, zinc 28.3kt and lead 17.8kt all within guidance

• Group operating costs of $315.3 million and sustaining capital of $58.8 million in line with guidance

• Cobar Region operating cash flow of $53.1 million, up from $36.2 million, the highest quarterly result since 2018

• Cash balance rose to $143.9 million from $94.7 million, with available liquidity of $183.9 million after the refinance

• Completed a new $150 million senior secured facility with Citi, Credeq as agent for Swiss Re, and HSBC, comprising a $110 million rehabilitation bonding facility and a $40 million revolving credit facility

• CEO Bryan Quinn steps down on 24 July, with CFO Martin Cummings appointed interim CEO from 25 July while a permanent search is well advanced

Company page: Aurelia Metals (AMI)

---

Perenti agrees Iduapriem contract transition and fleet sale to AngloGold Ashanti

[9:24 am] Perenti's African Mining Services subsidiary has struck a deal to wind down its mining contract at the Iduapriem gold mine in Ghana, including selling its mining fleet to AngloGold Ashanti.

• AMS, via the AMAX joint venture, agreed an orderly transition plan at Iduapriem with AngloGold Ashanti

• Contract valued at circa $95 million over a term of about 6 months from 17 July 2026

• Scope covers surface mining and related supporting services through to completion

• The majority of AMS-owned equipment on site will be sold to AngloGold Ashanti at contract conclusion, with expected proceeds of $30 million to $40 million

• AMS has provided mining services at the open pit mine since 2018 via a joint venture with local partner MaxMass

• Management flagged the proceeds would be recycled into value-accretive opportunities under consideration

Company page: Perenti (PRN)

---

St Barbara lifts quarterly gold output 8%, beats guidance at New Simberi

[9:12 am] St Barbara reported attributable gold production of 7,329 ounces for the June quarter, ahead of guidance, with total New Simberi output rising 8 per cent on the prior quarter.

• Attributable production (50%) was 7,329 ounces, above guidance of 5,600 to 6,800 ounces

• Attributable gold sales of 6,700 ounces at an average realised price of A$6,314 per ounce

• New Simberi production rose 8% on Q3, with processed tonnes up 19 per cent to 589kt at a feed grade of 1.00g/t gold

• Total mining volumes up 10% to 2,467kt as the operation cleared backfill waste in the Pigibo open pit

• Ore mined fell 17% to 563kt, offset by a 12 per cent higher mined grade of 1.11g/t gold

• FY26 production totaled 48,395 ounces (100% basis), with sales of 47,280 ounces at a realised price of A$6,232/oz

Company page: St Barbara (SBM)

---

MGX pivots to gold developer, sells Koolan Island iron ore operation to Crestlink

[9:11 am] MGX Resources accelerated work on its Central Tanami gold joint venture during the June quarter while executing a binding deal to divest its Koolan Island iron ore operation, leaving the company with $412.1 million in cash and no debt.

• Executed a binding conditional agreement to sell Koolan Island to infrastructure and logistics group Crestlink for up-front and deferred payments totalling at least $20.2 million over five years, plus a revenue share of up to a further $5 million, with Crestlink assuming rehabilitation obligations of around $30 million

• Crestlink is backed by an affiliated fund of US infrastructure investor Cerberus Capital Management, with completion targeted for late 2026 and extendable to 31 March 2027, subject to FIRB and ACCC approvals

• Cash and investment reserves stood at $412.1 million at 30 June with no bank borrowings, funding CTPJV development

• Group net cashflow of $3.1 million for the quarter, including $5.8 million from Koolan Island after rehabilitation costs

• Koolan Island shipped 0.94 Mwmt of low-grade iron ore, up from 0.39 Mwmt the prior quarter, lifting FY26 sales to 2.68 Mwmt, with final shipments due late July before transition to care and maintenance

• Holds an equity portfolio of around $41 million including a 4.9% stake in AIC Mines and a 4.2% stake in Maronan Metals, plus a 9.4% holding in Fenix Resources worth about $19 million

Company page: MGX Resources (MGX)

---

BCI Minerals begins salt crystallisation at Mardie, targets first shipment in early 2027

[9:08 am] BCI Minerals reached 85 per cent construction completion at its Mardie salt and potash project and started precipitating salt during the June quarter, with 49kt crystallised by the end of the period.

• Construction reached 85 per cent completion at quarter end, 82 per cent including the crystalliser lining program, with cumulative spend of $1,185 million

• Salt precipitation commenced in line with plan, with 49kt crystallised at the end of June

• Filled the first crystalliser train and began filling the second, with pond levels averaging around 98 per cent of design operating height

• Expects to be operationally ready for first salt on ship by the first quarter of calendar 2027, though the timing remains weather dependent, with cooler or wetter conditions potentially adding up to six months

• Management flagged the balance of construction in its final stages and the project remaining within budget and fully funded

• Drew $89.8 million from the syndicated debt facility, taking total debt drawn to $586.6 million at end June, with $98.3 million cash at bank and $443.7 million total available under the facility

• Received a $12.5 million contingent payment after quarter end from the Iron Valley asset sale, lifting the total gain on sale to $25.6 million

Company page: BCI Minerals (BCI)

---

Brent opens 3% higher

[8:52 am] Brent is trading 3.1% higher in early trade to US$91.07 a barrel, the highest since 11 June. Prices have now rallied 27.8% since the 1 July low.

Brent daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

---

The US-Iran war continues to escalate

[8:49 am] The conflict has deepened over the weekend, with three US casualties, a naval blockade in force and Strait of Hormuz transits near a standstill driving energy prices higher.

• Three US service members have died in the roughly five-month war, two killed in an Iranian missile and drone attack in Jordan and a third in northern Iraq during the controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone, the first US fatalities from Iranian fire since March

• US strikes have run eight consecutive nights, hitting Iranian air and coastal defences, missile and drone storage and logistics, with Washington vowing to "swiftly punish" Tehran and Iran warning of a "full-scale offensive"

• Iran has widened attacks on US Gulf allies, striking Kuwait's power and desalination plant for a second day and prompting interceptions over Jordan and Bahrain

• Strait of Hormuz transits have collapsed, with just three commodity vessels crossing on Thursday vs. a pre-war daily average of about 125, as a US naval blockade on Iran-related shipping resumes

• Escalation risks are building, with Iran threatening to prod its Houthi allies to close the Bab al-Mandeb strait and accusing the US of striking the under-construction Darkhovin nuclear plant

---

US insider selling hits near-record pace in warning sign for markets

[8:48 am] US executives sold shares at the second-fastest pace in more than 20 years in the first half of 2026, a signal some investors read as caution from those with the most corporate knowledge.

• Insiders sold $77.6bn of stock in the first half of 2026, up 20% year-on-year, the most intense pace outside the stimulus-fuelled 2021

• Insider buying stayed subdued at just $6.9bn, only modestly above the prior year's seven-year low of $6.7bn

• EPFR flagged reluctance among executives to add exposure at current valuations even as markets have advanced

• Supply concerns loom, with more large AI firms expected to go public, risking saturation of equity markets

Source: Bloomberg

---

SpaceX collapse below IPO price cools market for new listings

[8:44 am] SpaceX's slide from its post-listing peak to below its offer price in a month has dragged down a key gauge of this year's US debuts, denting enthusiasm for the "year of the IPO".

• SpaceX fell 5.4% on Friday, now down 18.5% in the last six sessions

• This year's US IPOs have returned a weighted average 6% through July 15, lagging the S&P 500's 11%, with the majority of debuts over the past two months trading below their offer price

• Investors are rotating out of favoured themes, with the SOX down 11% and a momentum basket off more than 8% over the past month despite a roughly flat S&P 500

• Consumer names step up next, with Jersey Mike's and Cumberland Farms able to launch IPO marketing as soon as Monday, the first sizeable consumer deals since Suja Life's May debut

• Anthropic could anchor a second-half surge, with a potential IPO as soon as October, as 2026 issuers have raised $157bn through July 16

Source: Bloomberg

---

Moonshot's Kimi K3 fuels tech rout as China closes AI gap

[8:43 am] Chinese startup Moonshot released an open-weight model it says rivals top US offerings, intensifying investor concerns over AI capex returns and triggering a selloff in Asian tech names.

• Kimi K3 outperformed all rivals except Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 on overall capability, with Artificial Analysis ranking it ahead of Anthropic's Opus 4.8 on some frontier benchmarks, a first for a Chinese open-weight model

• The model carries 2.8 trillion parameters and a 1 million token context window, and was priced at roughly Anthropic Sonnet levels, signalling Moonshot believes it can charge a premium over other Chinese models.

• Chinese rival Z.AI tumbled 28%, its biggest slide since listing, while MiniMax slid 16% amid a broader Asian tech selloff

• Moonshot claims K3 surpasses Z.AI on coding tasks, one of the most lucrative segments driving revenue for Anthropic and OpenAI ahead of planned IPOs, threatening rivals' business case if it can undercut on price

• Pricing pressure is mounting, with DeepSeek's V4 Flash running a standardised task for 2 cents versus $2.75 on Claude Fable 5, as DeepSeek eyes a 2027 IPO after a record $7.4bn raise

Source: Bloomberg

---

TSMC selloff drags Taiwan into correction as chip rout spreads across Asia

[8:42 am] TSMC shares tumbled despite raising spending and revenue guidance, as rising costs, stretched valuations and AI fatigue drove record foreign outflows and broad losses across Asian chip names.

• TSMC fell 7.3% in Taipei even after lifting 2026 capex guidance to $60-64bn, at least $4bn above prior forecasts, with Morgan Stanley flagging cost inflation from higher equipment prices and pressure on margins

• Taiwan's Taiex dropped 6.5%, taking its fall from the June high to nearly 11%, as foreign funds sold a record $5.8bn of shares on a net basis

• A Bloomberg index of Asian chip stocks fell more than 6%, led by Kioxia, whose shares have halved in recent weeks

• Valuations remain stretched, with TSMC still up nearly 50% year-to-date and trading at 19x forward earnings versus a five-year average below 18x

Source: Bloomberg

---

Chip selloff fuels doubts over AI rally strength and leveraged positioning

[8:41 am] A brutal week for semiconductor stocks has investors questioning whether the AI trade became over-leveraged, with the SOX confirming a bear market amid rotation out of crowded momentum names.

• SOX sank ~10% for the week, its largest weekly fall in over a year, ending Friday down just over 20% from its late-June record and confirming a bear market, though still up more than 60% year-to-date

• Moonshot's new open-weight model rekindled scrutiny of AI capex sustainability, compounded by reports Alphabet's Gemini 3.5 Pro is months behind schedule

• Momentum unwind went global, with South Korea's KOSPI and the S&P 500 Momentum Index in bear/correction territory and Japan's Nikkei falling into correction despite strong year-to-date gains

• Leverage concerns mounted, with Goldman flagging elevated retail margin, levered ETF AUM and short-dated options volume, while hedge funds trimmed exposure to top AI infrastructure names

• Options flow pointed to dip-buying rather than broad de-risking, with bullish activity in SK Hynix, Micron and SanDisk suggesting a possible short-term oversold bottom

---

US stocks slide again as chip selloff deepens and Netflix tumbles

[8:39 am] Wall Street closed out a losing week as a momentum unwind in semiconductors accelerated on fresh Chinese open-source competition, while Netflix slumped on soft guidance.

• S&P 500 fell 1.01% to 7,457.69, with the Nasdaq down 1.4% and the Dow off 0.77%, capping weekly losses of 1.6%, 2.9% and 0.9% respectively

• Semiconductors bore the brunt, with the SOX posting its worst week since Apr-25 and falling into bear territory, as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped almost 9% over the period

• Chinese startup Moonshot's new 2.8T parameter Kimi K3 model rivalled leading offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI in early testing, reviving concerns over AI capex sustainability and open-source competition

• Netflix tumbled 7.2% as light Q3 revenue guidance and decelerating US growth overshadowed better-than-expected 1H engagement

• Rotation into cyclicals and select Big Tech cushioned the move, with regional banks, retail, transports and Apple (+5.8%) higher, while IBM (-26%) had its worst week on record on soft sales

---

Good morning!

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are up 54 pts (+0.61%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished lower, with tech, homebuilders, airlines and retail stocks leading the decline

• China's Moonshot unveiled its Kimi K3 model, triggering a global semiconductor selloff that pushed the chip index into a bear market on AI capex and pricing fears

• The US-Iran war escalated over the weekend with strikes on Kuwaiti oil and water infrastructure, with Brent up 4.0% last Friday and another 3.0% this morning to US$90.92 a barrel