ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 15th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, September 15. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 bounces off intraday lows

[2:00 pm] ASX 200 currently down 0.21% vs. session lows of -0.80%. While every sector opened in the red, Energy (+0.64%), Real Estate (+0.33%), Discretionary (+0.30%), Staples (+0.21%) and Tech (+0.15%) all bounced back into positive territory. Despite this solid intraday strength, markets remain in a holding pattern around the 8,800 level, wedged between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

That's all for Monday.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Fortescue unchanged on China data

[1:31 pm] Interesting to see a China-sensitive stock like Fortescue relatively unchanged despite the weaker-than-expected data dump, though the intraday chart shows some slight weakness around the 11:30 am AEST data release.

Fortescue intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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China's property slump deepens

[1:28 pm] China's housing market continued its decline in August, with prices for existing homes falling at an accelerated pace. Resale home values dropped 0.58% month-on-month, a worsening of the trend seen in July. New-home prices also saw a slight decline.

Despite major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen relaxing purchase restrictions, these measures have not yet revived buyer confidence. For example, Beijing saw the steepest drop in resale values among major cities, suggesting that recent, "mild" easing policies have had a limited effect.

Source: Bloomberg

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China's widespread economic slowdown

[1:25 pm] China’s economy slowed more than expected in August, with key indicators all underperforming. Industrial output saw its smallest gain since August 2024, retail sales growth was weaker than forecasted, and fixed-asset investment recorded its worst performance since 2020.

The broad-based slump, particularly in investment and consumption, is increasing the likelihood that Chinese policymakers will need to introduce further stimulus to meet their annual growth target of around 5%.

Source: TradingEconomics

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Big block trades

[1:20 pm] Two block trades of interest this afternoon:

• Seek: 1.5 million share block trade crossed at $27.93

• MA Financial Group: 5 million shares crossed via two blocks at $9.10

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Gold stocks broadly lower

[11:40 am] The ASX All Ords Gold Index currently down 2.7%, marking one of its worst days since early July. However, this pullback comes after a massive run that saw the index surge as much as 38% since early August. The decline appears aggressive but understandable given overbought levels. Gold prices down 0.3% today to US$2,631/oz.

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Health insurance premium overhaul

[11:45 am] The Australian government is changing the annual health insurance premium-setting process to incorporate soaring costs and potential wage increases in private hospitals, which is expected to lead to higher premiums for consumers next year.

The Health Department will now seek direct financial data from private hospital, including revenue and profit margins, to inform premium decisions, moving beyond the previous reliance on data provided solely by health funds.

There are concerns that not all hospitals will be willing to provide the requested financial data, making it difficult for the government to get an accurate picture of sector-wide funding pressures. The industry is also divided over the potential introduction of a fixed-price funding model, a "National Efficient Price," similar to the public hospital system. Insurers and hospital groups disagree on the level of funding required, with some calling for an independent body to set premiums.

Source: AFR

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US-China talks head into second day

[11:38 am] High-level talks are underway in Madrid between US and Chinese delegations, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng. The six-hour meeting covered key issues and is expected to continue, signaling a concerted effort to manage relations.

A central point of discussion is the status of TikTok, which faces a US divestiture deadline this week. Discussions also include broader trade and economic issues, as well as national security concerns.

Source: Bloomberg

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ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:39 am] A few stocks standing tall amid broader market weakness, notably tech. Meanwhile, gold stocks are pulling back sharply, with the S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index currently down 3.3%.

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ASX 200 dips, all sectors lower

[10:31 am] ASX 200 down 0.70% in early trade, every sector is red.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Emeco confirms unsolicited interest

[9:49 am] Emeco says it has received unsolicited interest from a number of potential suitors, though no party has put forward a binding proposal.

This follows an article from The Australian which noted Emeco representatives testing the waters on a potential buyout, with a US-based industry player showing interest.

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Brickworks and Soul Patts merger becomes legally effective

[9:25 am] The Supreme Court of NSW approved the share schemes for Brickworks' merger with Soul Patts last Friday. Today marks the final trading session for both companies as separate entities, with TopCo shares set to commence trading tomorrow, Tuesday, 16 September.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Soul Patts (SOL)

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Gold Road downgrades FY25 production guidance

[9:17 am] Gold Road cut its 2025 annual gold production guidance to 310-320koz vs. previous guidance of 325-355koz. This represents a downgrade of 7.3% at the midpoint.

Lower production is also set to raise AISC, now expected to be between A$2,600-2,800 an ounce vs. previous cost guidance of A$2,400-2,600 an ounce. This represents an 8.0% increase at the midpoint.

"The lower production is primarily due to previously reported issues with primary crusher maintenance, failure of conveyor belts, and lower than anticipated ore from the mine," the company said in a statement.

Overall, not a good look. Back in July, Gold Road reported a weak June quarter and said it expects to hit the low end of full-year production and high end of costs. Though this doesn't really matter, given the agreed scheme with Goldfields.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Gold Road (GOR)

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ANZ reaches $240 million settlement with ASIC

[9:11 am] ANZ Group has reached a A$240 million settlement with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) over a series of breaches across its markets and retail divisions. This agreement requires Federal Court approval.

The key penalties include:

• $85m for ANZ’s role as duration manager in a 2023 Treasury Bond issuance by the AOFM.

• $40m each (3 penalties, total $120m) for inaccurate bond turnover reporting and false attestations, failure to pay bonus interest/displaying wrong rates, and mishandling customer hardship notices.

• $35m for breaches related to deceased estates.

Source: ASIC

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Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on retail names

[9:06 am] At a glance, the coverage suggests a turnaround for Accent Group after the stock dipped 25% in July on a weak trading update, Nick Scali appears overvalued (understandable after a 58% year-to-date rally) and there's still some upside Temple & Webster (up as much as 120% year-to-date, eased to 80%),

• Accent Group initiated Buy with $1.70 target (29% upside)

• Nick Scali initiated Neutral with $21.00 target (11% downside)

• Temple & Webster initiated Buy with $27.65 target (18% upside)

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Retail Food Group CEO resigns

[9:02 am] Retail Food Group CEO Matt Marshall has resigned, effective immediately. Non-executive Chairman Peter George will step in as Executive Chairman and assume all CEO responsibilities while the board searches for a new, permanent CEO with substantial franchise experience.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Retail Food Group (RFG)

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Woodside receives final approval for North West Shelf Project Extension

[9:00 am] Woodside has finally received the much-anticipated final approval for its North West Shelf (NWS) project's life extension to 2070. The approval is subject to 48 new, more demanding conditions aimed at protecting the Murujuga rock art.

The most significant conditions relate to emissions. The project is required to reduce certain gas emissions by 60% by 2030, with ongoing reductions after that. To ensure compliance, the project must implement a robust continuous emissions monitoring system and publish an annual report with emissions data.

Beyond direct emissions, the project must also put in place a Cultural Heritage Management Plan to manage any physical impacts on the rock art.

Macquarie says the new conditions are more stringent than expected. The emissions reduction of ~60% is a significant increase from the prior target of 4 0%, which will likely lead to an increase in capex.

Overall, the analysts believe the investment thesis for Woodside remains largely unchanged. The financial impact of the additional capex is not considered material to the overall valuation. A Neutral rating was retained, along with a $25.00 target price.

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China's economic data dump

[8:51 am] China's economic weakness likely continued in August, with the following data to be released at 12:00 pm AEST.

• Industrial production forecast to rise 5.6% year-on-year, decelerating from 5.7% in July

• Retail sales expected to pick up slightly to 3.8% after July flagged the weakest gain of the year

• Fixed-asset investment to remain subdued at 1.4%, down from 1.6% in the previous month

Policymakers are under increasing pressure to provide more stimulus as GDP growth for the third quarter is tracking below 5%, with export growth now showing signs of slowing.

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Bessent to meet with Chinese officials this week

[8:50 am] High-level talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are taking place in Madrid, signaling a warming of relations and paving the way for a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

A key focus of the discussions is the status of TikTok, with a looming 17 September deadline for its divestiture. The talks are expected to result in another deadline extension, providing a potential political justification for the Trump administration.

The meetings are also addressing broader economic talking points, including tariffs and export controls, with a 90-day tariff truce set to expire in November, and efforts to combat money laundering.

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Microsoft nears $100 billion stake in OpenAI

[8:49 am] OpenAI is moving closer to converting into a more traditional for-profit company, with an agreement with Microsoft giving the non-profit arm an equity stake of at least $100 billion.

This restructuring is designed to give the existing OpenAI non-profit control over a new public benefit corporation and would make the nonprofit "one of the most well-resourced philanthropic organisations in the world."

The proposed changes face opposition from multiple fronts, including a lawsuit from co-founder Elon Musk and reviews by the attorneys general of California and Delaware, who have raised concerns about safety and a potential breach of the company's charitable mission.

Source: Bloomberg

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Giant cup and handle for small caps

[8:43 am] Is the Russell 2000 setting up for a breakout of the ages?

Russell 2000 weekly chart (Source: TradingView)

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Wall Street expect the Russell 2000 to kick on

[8:41 am] The Russell 2000 has surged nearly 10% since late July, doubling the S&P 500's gain, as analysts forecast a potential 20% advance over the next year, compared to just 11% for the S&P 500.

The primary catalyst for this rally and future outperformance is the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are predicted to lower borrowing costs and significantly boost margins for smaller, more leveraged companies.

This positive outlook is supported by strong fundamentals, with over 60% of Russell 2000 companies beat second-quarter earnings estimates, and the group's valuation remains attractive relative to large-caps, suggesting potential for a "further re-rating."

Source: Bloomberg

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S&P 500 slips, Nasdaq at all-time highs

[8:36 am] A rather mixed lead from Wall Street. Here are the key takeaways:

• S&P 500 down 0.05%, though the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.72%) underperformed by 67 bps, reflecting poor breadth and weakness from sectors like Healthcare (-1.13%), Materials (-0.96%) and Industrials (-0.82%)

• Nasdaq up 0.44%, largely reflecting gains from Tesla (+7.3%), Microsoft (+1.7%) and Apple (+1.7%)

• Russell 2000 down 1.01%, outsized weakness relative to the other benchmarks. Though the Index is up ~10% since July and trying to break through 2021 highs to record levels (its in one massive cup and handle)

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are down 43pts (-0.67%) after a relatively mixed overnight session. The Nasdaq closed at another all-time high on Big Tech strength, while the S&P 500 slipped on weak breadth.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.