ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 6th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, November 6. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Let us know how we can make it even better.

ASX Live is independent coverage from our newsroom, proudly supported by CommSec. Get insights from CommSec's market experts

Asian markets brace for steep losses as AI rout spreads

[9:43 am] Asian share markets are set for a sharp fall on Friday after Thursday’s selloff in US chipmakers, with the region’s chip-heavy markets most exposed.

• South Korean and Taiwanese futures fell at least 7%, with Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC bearing the brunt of the AI selloff

• Japanese futures sank almost 6%, while ASX 200 futures fell 0.5% and Hang Seng futures fell 1.6%

• The US chip index is down almost 16% this week, on track for its worst week since April 2025

• Hong Kong stocks had rallied this week as investors rotated out of AI supply chain stocks into cheaper Chinese internet companies

Source: Bloomberg

Burry trims chip bet as data centre setbacks pile up after AI rout

[9:41 am] The fallout from Thursday’s AI selloff spread into credit markets and data centre projects, while investor Michael Burry took some profit on his bet against chipmakers.

• Michael Burry sold 25% of his put options on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, a bet that chip stocks will fall, but said his remaining position is still very large

• Microsoft chose not to extend a contract at a Texas data centre run by Nscale, ahead of the startup’s planned IPO

• Oracle’s $165bn New Mexico data centre complex faces another potential delay after its power developer gave regulators more time to review an air permit

• Micron has suspended plans for a Taiwan memory chip plant over a protracted labour dispute, according to people familiar with the matter

• SpaceX and CoreWeave were among the biggest losers in a broad credit selloff, while an unnamed seller is trying to offload $500m of data centre loans

• A gauge of expected swings in the VIX volatility index jumped the most since the February 2018 “Volmageddon” selloff

Source: Bloomberg

Nine lifts cost-out target as TV revenue slips and shareholders protest on pay

[9:24 am] Nine reaffirmed its outlook for FY27 revenue and earnings growth at its AGM, although TV revenue fell in the September quarter and a large share of proxy votes went against executive pay.

• FY27 revenue and EBITDA growth is still expected on a pro forma basis, with EBITDA weighted to the second half

• Total TV revenue fell 6% in the September quarter, with a low single-digit decline expected in the December quarter

• Outdoor revenue is expected to grow by a mid-teens percentage in 1H27, with double-digit FY27 EBITDA growth on top of about $9m of cost synergies

• The cost savings target was lifted to at least $180m by the end of FY27, from $160m

• Digital subscription revenue rose 7% in the September quarter, and Nine will accrue News Bargaining Incentive income in FY27, with first cash payments due in 1H FY28

• 34.4% of proxy votes opposed the remuneration report, above the 25% first-strike threshold, while about a quarter opposed CEO Matt Stanton’s performance rights

Company page: Nine Entertainment (NEC)

Qantas holds guidance as strong demand offsets elevated fuel costs

[8:58 am] Qantas said trading remains in line with its August outlook, with resilient travel demand offsetting fuel prices that are expected to stay high through FY27.

• 1H27 fuel cost is now expected to be about $3.75bn, with the group about 85% hedged for FY27, mostly through Brent crude

• Revenue per available seat kilometre is still expected to grow 8-10% in 1H27 across both domestic and international, unchanged from August guidance

• International demand remains strong, helped by travellers avoiding the Middle East, while domestic leisure demand is strong and corporate and government travel is stable

• Domestic capacity will fall 3% in 1H27 and 4% in the March quarter as Qantas adjusts fares and capacity for higher fuel costs, while international capacity rises 2%

• FY27 net capital expenditure is now expected at the lower end of the $4.3-4.6bn range

• Qantas Loyalty remains on track for 5-7% EBIT growth in FY27, with all other guidance unchanged

Company page: Qantas Airways (QAN)

Macquarie beats as commodities windfall offsets Macquarie Capital slump

[8:53 am] Macquarie’s first-half profit came in ahead of expectations as a surge in commodities trading more than offset a sharp fall in Macquarie Capital earnings.

• Net operating income rose 10% to $9.57bn vs $9.30bn ests (3% beat)

• Net profit rose 50% to $2.48bn vs $2.41bn ests (3% beat), helped by a lower 22.5% tax rate, while diluted EPS of 649.3c was 5% above ests

• Commodities and Global Markets contributed $2.03bn vs $1.54bn ests (32% beat) on client hedging in gas and power, energy financing and oil trading

• Macquarie Capital contributed $278m vs $636m ests (56% miss) on lower investment income, private credit income and M&A fees

• Interim dividend of $3.25 per share, 35% franked, vs $3.29 ests (1% miss), up 16% on a year earlier

• Macquarie kept its cautious outlook and gave no earnings guidance as Greg Ward takes over as CEO from 7 November

Company page: Macquarie Group (MQG)

Forrestania lifts Zenith stake to 64.67% as takeover offer enters final week

[8:51 am] Forrestania Resources has started issuing shares to Zenith Minerals shareholders who accepted its takeover offer, which closes next week.

• Forrestania now controls 64.67% of Zenith as at 6 November

• The offer closes at 5pm (AWST) on 12 November and will not be extended unless triggered automatically under the Corporations Act

• The withdrawal rights period has ended, with shares issued to Zenith holders who accepted before 22 October and further issues due during November

• Zenith holders who do not accept will remain minority shareholders in a Forrestania-controlled company

• Dry commissioning is underway at the Edna May gold project, with first ore processing targeted for December

Company page: Forrestania Resources (FRS)

James Hardie beats on EBITDA but holds full-year guidance, implying a softer second half

[8:51 am] James Hardie’s September quarter earnings came in about 10% ahead of expectations, but full-year guidance was left unchanged, pointing to a weaker second half than the market had expected.

• Net sales rose 24% to US$1.43bn, 3% above UBS’s US$1.39bn forecast

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 44% to US$455m vs US$413m ests (10% beat), with margin up 450bps to 31.8%

• Net profit from continuing operations was US$150m, compared with a US$64m loss a year earlier

• FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$1.45-1.53bn was reaffirmed, with the US$1.49bn midpoint 1% below US$1.51bn ests, while the free cash flow target was raised to more than US$650m

• Within guidance, Siding & Trim EBITDA was trimmed to US$1.05-1.09bn from US$1.05-1.11bn, offset by decking raised to US$355-375m from US$339-357m

• Third-quarter EBITDA guidance of US$298-320m has a midpoint 9% below UBS’s US$338m forecast, reflecting decking seasonality, higher freight costs and a weaker macro backdrop

NYSE-listed James Hardie shares are down 2.8% in after hours trading

Company page: James Hardie Industries (JHX)

Sources say Trump still likely to resume Iran strikes after midterms

[8:43 am] Iran reported more tanker damage in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, as sources close to the White House signalled Trump may restart strikes now the midterms are over.

• Two sources told Reuters Trump is still likely to order renewed hostilities, with one saying he held off only because of the midterms

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said two tankers struck naval mines and another caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz

• Trump defended the war when asked about Vance blaming it for the midterm defeat, while a White House adviser said some officials saw Vance’s post as a foreign policy break from the president

• Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf mocked Vance, saying he should urge Trump to end the war if he believed it was a mistake

• Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ruled out any move towards submission to the US, regardless of which party holds power

• Qatari-mediated talks have produced no breakthrough, with a senior Iranian official saying the sides remain far apart on Hormuz, the US blockade of Iranian ports, sanctions and the nuclear program

Source: Reuters

Fed’s Hammack calls for restrictive rates and more frequent hikes

[8:42 am] Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rates need to rise high enough to slow the economy to bring inflation back to target, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin backed a gradual approach.

• Hammack said policy will need to become restrictive to return inflation to 2% in a timely manner

• She prefers more frequent, smaller rate moves to reduce the risk of policy falling behind, after dissenting in favour of a hike when the Fed held rates last week

• Hammack said inflation has been above target for nearly six years, with broad-based price pressures and modest signs of a strengthening labour market

• Barkin reiterated his support for gradual hikes but declined to say how far rates need to rise

• Futures pricing points to Fed hikes in December and March

• Both played down Chair Kevin Warsh’s plan to cut rate-setting meetings to six a year from eight by 2028

Source: Bloomberg

Bank of England lifts rates to 4% and flags more hikes ahead

[8:39 am] The Bank of England raised rates for the first time in more than three years and signalled further increases may follow as the Iran war pushes up energy costs.

• The MPC voted 8-1 to raise rates 25bps to 4%, a more hawkish split than expected, with Catherine Mann backing a 50bp hike

• The BoE sees CPI peaking at 4.9% in the June quarter of 2027, up from the 3.2% peak it forecast in July

• Its forecasts assume rates peak at 4.75-5%, implying one or two more hikes, with inflation falling below the 2% target in 2029

• Traders priced about a 50% chance of a December hike and almost three more 25bp hikes by the end of 2027, while two-year gilt yields rose 3bps to 4.77%

• Under a scenario of repeated Iran war escalation, the BoE sees inflation reaching 6.2% in the September quarter of 2027

• Growth forecasts were lifted to 1.6% for 2026 from 1.1% and to 1.3% for 2027 from 1.1%, while 2028 was cut to 1.2% from 1.7%

Source: Bloomberg

Vance blames Iran war for Republican midterm defeat

[8:36 am] The Republican Party’s midterm loss has triggered a wave of finger-pointing largely aimed at the White House.

• Vice President JD Vance blamed the defeat on the Iran war, cost of living and US-Israel ties, saying the conflict cost the party the Senate for at least six years

• Vance also said Republicans need to change their relationship with Israel to win back Congress and the White House in 2028

• Florida Governor Ron DeSantis echoed the criticism and called on Congress to ban stock trading by lawmakers, after polls showed voters ranked government corruption among their top concerns

• Hours before the results, President Trump said the US would end its $3.8bn in annual military aid to Israel

Apple draws $31bn of orders for $7.5bn bond sale

[8:35 am] Apple raised 7.5 billion dollars from a seven-part bond sale on Thursday, drawing strong demand from investors looking to diversify away from the recent flood of AI-related debt despite the broader market selloff.

• Orders peaked at about $31bn, more than four times the deal size, after Big Tech companies sold $50bn of debt in the US market over the past few days

• The longest tranche, due 2036, priced at 55bps over Treasuries, 25bps tighter than initial pricing

• That compares with 65bps for Microsoft, 160bps for Meta and 310bps for Oracle on recent similar-maturity bonds, as investors demand more compensation from heavy AI spenders

• Proceeds will fund general corporate purposes, including share buybacks

• It is Apple’s first bond sale since May 2025, when it raised $4.5bn

• Apple shares fell 1.7% as the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, its biggest fall since April 2025, while the cost of insuring high-grade debt against default rose as much as 5.9%

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs desk says leveraged selling is driving the AI rout

[8:33 am] Goldman Sachs’ trading desk said forced selling from crowded, highly leveraged positions was behind Thursday’s tech selloff, though it has started to see the first buyers step in.

• Selling is dominated by long liquidations, with the desk also seeing short sales in the main US semiconductor ETF as prices broke lower, while long-only fund managers have stayed on the sidelines

• Hedge funds resold the stocks they had bought back in the previous session’s post-election rebound, particularly the hyperscalers

• Gross exposure among Goldman’s hedge fund clients is in the 97th percentile over five years, so falling prices are forcing leverage to unwind and adding to the selling in the most crowded tech, media and telecom stocks

• The debate has shifted from long-term AI demand to the pace and funding of the buildout, with higher financing costs, political pressure over data centres and post-election regulatory fears weighing on sentiment

• The tech selloff was about five times larger than the move options markets had priced in the day before, and short-term protection now costs more than longer-dated cover, so Goldman favours rolling short-dated options positions into longer maturities

• The desk has seen early buying in semis and tech, including orders for Nvidia, TSMC, Microsoft and CoreWeave

S&P 500 falls 4.4% as Democratic sweep sparks AI selloff

[8:26 am] Wall Street sold off sharply on Thursday as investors weighed what the Democrats’ midterm sweep means for the artificial intelligence trade.

• The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, with all 11 sectors lower and information technology leading the declines at -6.5%

• The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.5%, erasing $2.1tn in market value

• Voter opposition to data centres and Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa’s call for a moratorium on new developments raised expectations of tighter regulation for chipmakers and data centre suppliers

• Barclays expects about $135bn of selling in US equity futures from volatility-targeting funds over the next 24-48 hours, the largest cut to their equity exposure since December 2018

• Brent crude rose to near $97 a barrel, adding to pressure on stocks

• Goldman Sachs noted the S&P 500 has risen in all 18 twelve-month periods after a midterm election since 1954, averaging a 15.5% gain

Source: Bloomberg

Chip stocks slump 12% on post-midterm data centre fears

[8:25 am] Semiconductor stocks extended their recent selloff on Thursday as investors questioned whether data centre spending could slow under a Democrat-controlled Congress.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.5%, with every member lower, and is on track for a fifth straight weekly drop, its longest losing streak since April 2025

• AMD fell 17.3%, while Arm fell 13.1%, Broadcom 10.4% and Intel 10.3%

• Nvidia fell as much as 9.2%, its worst intraday drop since April 2025

• Qualcomm fell 10% after disappointing results, while Arm’s decline also followed its own report

• Memory stocks were hit hard, with Micron down 17% and Western Digital and Seagate both down more than 14%, while AI cloud providers CoreWeave and Nebius also fell sharply

• Deutsche Bank still rates the sector as attractive, particularly relative to software

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries rally as tech selloff drives haven demand

[8:25 am] US government bonds rallied on Thursday as the selloff in technology stocks pushed investors into havens and pared bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

• Yields fell as much as 12bps across maturities to their lowest since early September, with the 10-year down about 5bps to near 4.83%

• Treasury futures volumes ran about 40% above their 20-day average

• Traders still lean towards a 25bp hike at the Fed’s 9 December meeting, though some options trades targeted no move and bets on further hikes in 2027 were pared

• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin backed higher rates, while weekly jobless claims pointed to a strong labour market ahead of Friday’s October payrolls report

• Oil has fallen about 15% over three days on the view the election result could change the course of the US war on Iran, although prices rebounded on Thursday from two-month lows

• Apple raised $7.5bn in its largest bond sale since 2021, after Microsoft, Oracle and Meta sold a combined $50bn of debt in recent days

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:22 am] ASX 200 futures are down 49 pts (-0.54%). Here's what happened overnight:

• A post-election AI trade unwind spilled into the broader market, sending Wall Street to its worst session since the April 2025 tariff crash and the Nasdaq into correction

  • S&P 500 (-4.31%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-2.90%)

  • Nasdaq (-5.52%), Nasdaq 100 (-6.40%)

  • Dow (-3.44%), Russell 2000 (-4.45%)

• Chipmakers led the selloff on bets a Democrat-controlled Congress will tighten scrutiny of AI data centres, while Treasuries rallied on haven demand and gold climbed

• Bank of England raised rates to 4% in its first hike since 2023, while Fed officials Hammack and Barkin backed further gradual tightening

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