ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 5th December
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open slightly higher after a mixed lead from Wall Street. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, December 5. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We've got our Christmas party today, so the blog will wrap up around 11 am. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 on track to finish flat
[11:22 am] ASX 200 currently flat and on track to finish the week unchanged. Market struggling for direction (both Aus and the US). The recent resource tailwind has been offset by emerging rate hike expectations, a headwind for many sectors. Seeing the Aussie 10-year spike to 4.69% is rather uncomforting. We'll just have to see how the dust settles. That's all for today. We'll catch you next week.
APRA proposes three-tier banking framework
[11:07 am] APRA is considering a three-tiered approach to its banking prudential framework, with final proposals expected in 2026.
The new Most Significant Financial Institutions (MSFIs) tier would apply to banks with more than A$300 billion in assets, currently covering the four major banks and Macquarie Bank.
A second tier would include all other Significant Financial Institutions (SFIs), with the SFI threshold raised from A$20 billion to A$30 billion. The third tier would cover non-SFIs, encompassing all remaining banks.
APRA will finalise the proposals following a three-month consultation period.
UBS upgrades lithium stocks
[10:57 am] UBS upgraded its ratings and target prices for most lithium majors this morning. Though this was largely a reactive upgrade, given the recent re-rate.
Liontown upgraded to Buy from Sell, target up to $1.80 from $0.80
Mineral Resources upgraded to Buy from Neutral, target up to $58.50 from $52.60
IGO upgraded to Neutral from Sell, target up to $7.20 from $5.20
PLS Group upgraded to Neutral from Sell, target up to $4.00 from $2.40
Analysts' take on Bendigo Bank's 2025 Investor Day
[10:45 am] Bendigo Bank hosted its 2025 Investor Day on Thursday, which featured plans to acquire RACQ Bank. Analysts viewed the transaction as strategically sound and modestly accretive to earnings. However, the event offered little new insight into core operations, with analysts noting sentiment around the underlying business remains downbeat.
Morgan Stanley retained underweight, target $9.60. RACQ deal seen as strategic and low-risk, but margin pressure, tech costs, and unclear AML/capital impact keep earnings visibility weak.
UBS lowered target to $10.95, maintained neutral. Acquisition positive but AML concerns, cost inflation, and funding trade-offs challenge loan growth potential.
JPMorgan lowered target to $10.30, maintained neutral. EPS gains from RACQ offset by higher costs and AML issues, with operational traction partly visible but regulatory risks elevated.
Uranium stocks open broadly higher
[10:31 am] A sea of green for uranium stocks, this most names up around 3-5%, though the catalyst behind this moves remains a little unclear.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a rather unexpected appearance on the “Joe Rogan Experience” podcast. He made some interesting comments about power-hungry data centres, noting: "“I think in the next six, seven years, I think you’re going to see a whole bunch of small nuclear reactors.”
“It probably is the smartest way to do it. Right. And it takes the burden off… the grid. It takes ... and you could build as much as you need, and you can contribute back to the grid.”
Top gainers at the moment include Lotus Resources (+12.1%), Elevate Uranium (+10.1%), Bannerman Energy (+5.6%) and NexGen (+5.4%).
Global X Uranium ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)
NextDC rallies 8%
[10:11 am] A rather volatile open for NextDC this morning, after announcing an MoU with OpenAI this morning. The stock opened 8.5% higher but already set intraday highs and lows of 10.8% and 6.5% respectively. Not a whole lot of substance to the announcement besides NextDC being linked to heavyweight OpenAI.
NRW's Fredon secures ~$150m in data centre contracts
[10:02 am] NRW Holdings subsidiary Fredon has secured multiple data centre contracts across Australia valued at approximately $150 million.
The contracts include an electrical package at a Victorian data centre, extending Fredon’s involvement on site for at least 12 months, and an HVAC package at another large Victorian data centre over the next 12 months. An electrical package at a Brisbane data centre will run over the coming 18 months, while an ECI order for a NSW data centre is scheduled for completion by early next year.
NRW announced the acquisition of Frendon back in September, with a purchase price of up to $200 million. The stock rallied ~6% on the day of the announcement, with analysts viewing it as an attractive buyout (~5x EV/EBIT multiple) and immediately EPS accretive.
Company page: NRW Holdings (NWH)
Premier Investments provides 1H26 trading update
[9:59 am] Premier Investments has issued a trading update at its AGM, guiding 1H26 Premier Retail underlying EBIT of $120 million.
The company noted that discretionary spending remains under pressure, with consumers continuing to be cautious amid ongoing cost-of-living impacts. However, Black Friday trading provided encouraging early signs ahead of the key Christmas, Boxing Day and back-to-school periods, with Peter Alexander delivering record sales across the Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions.
In parallel with the update, Premier launched an on-market share buyback of up to $100 million from 24 December 2025.
Company page: Premier Investments (PMV)
Northern Star Resources highlights ongoing exploration potential
[9:35 am] Northern Star issued an exploration update, maintaining strong exploration investment across its portfolio, supporting both near-term optionality and long-term growth.
At KCGM, new underground areas are enabling increased drilling activity to provide near-term optionality and long-term visibility.
At Kalgoorlie, opportunities identified at the Ballarat-Last Chance Project west of Red Hill Mineral Resource, with drilling at the Hercules discovery building confidence.
At Yandal, mine life extension opportunities have been identified near current mining infrastructure.
At Pogo, extensional drilling has highlighted several high-priority targets.
At Hemi, potential growth opportunities exist adjacent to existing resources, with early regional success at Mt Berghaus.
Hemi mineral resources and ore reserves will be included in the group’s annual statement in May 2026, with ongoing technical reviews of models and assumptions.
Company page: Northern Star (NST)
NextDC to partner with OpenAI on AI infrastructure in Australia
[9:32 am] NextDC has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with OpenAI to collaborate on the planning, development and operation of a next-generation hyperscale AI campus. The partnership will also establish a large-scale GPU supercluster at NextDC’s S7 site in Eastern Creek, Sydney, under the OpenAI for Australia program.
A relatively vague announcement (the above was literally everything), wonder if it'll pump the share price. NextDC has really struggled in recent months, down 25% since late September and trading at six month lows.
Company page: NextDC (NXT)
Experience Co. hit by skydiving instructor strike
[9:24 am] Experience Co. is facing industrial action from its skydiving instructors, with Australian Workers Union members set to strike for 48 hours starting today across eight venues. Instructors have also been notified of potential rolling work bans beginning Monday.
Experience Co. CEO John O’Sullivan said the AWU has rejected every offer and submitted an ambit claim in November, which would impose costs the business cannot sustain in its current recovery phase.
Source: AFR
Blackstone mulls bid for Steadfast
[9:22 am] Blackstone is reportedly considering a bid for Steadfast Group, according to The Australian. The interest emerges shortly after CVC and EQT walked away from pursuing Steadfast’s rival AUB, leaving Steadfast as the remaining major target in the sector.
Steadfast shares are trading close to 52-week lows, with sentiment still weighed by the company’s handling of a workplace complaint investigation involving CEO Robert Kelly.
Source: The Australian
Sentiment jumps as AAII bull-bear spread turns positive
[9:12 am] US investor sentiment flipped sharply bullish in early December after a strong late-November market rebound.
AAII bull-bear spread surged more than 24 percentage points to +13.5 percent for the week ended 3 December, snapping three weeks of negative readings and marking the strongest improvement since late January.
The last time sentiment hit similar levels was January, markets staged a solid mid-month rebound after a weak start to the year, aided by benign tariff commentary, AI enthusiasm and supportive rate expectations.
Drivers of the late-November bounce included dovish Fedspeak, rising odds of a December rate cut, cleaner positioning and supportive seasonality.
Rio Tinto outlines productivity gains and resets capital plans
[9:07 am] Rio Tinto hosted its Capital Markets Day after market close on Thursday, targeting higher output, lower costs and tighter capital discipline through 2030, aiming to lift earnings while unlocking value from its existing asset base.
The key takeaways include:
Productivity initiatives delivered $650m in annualised benefits in the first three months, with a larger uplift targeted as operations are streamlined.
Production is expected to grow around 3% per annum to 2030, supported by major copper, iron ore and lithium projects including Oyu Tolgoi, Simandou and Rincon.
Release $5-10bn from the current asset base by pursuing third-party funding where it is cheaper than Rio’s cost of capital and by advancing strategic reviews of Iron and Titanium and Borates.
Unit costs are expected to fall 4% from 2024 to 2030, while mid-term capex is set to drop below $10bn once key growth projects are completed.
Lithium capacity is on track to reach roughly 200ktpa by 2028, with further capital spend contingent on market conditions.
EBITDA has the potential to increase 40-50% by 2030 under long-run consensus pricing, improving earnings diversification across copper, aluminium and iron ore.
Decarbonisation spend to 2030 has been revised down to $1-2bn from $5-6bn, supporting a more capital-efficient emissions reduction strategy.
The Capital Markets Day also noted some minor guidance changes for FY25, including a slightly upgrade for copper and bauxite, aluminium to reach upper end of previously guided.
Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)
Real estate sector on the backfoot
[8:59 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate index is down around 9% since late October, weighed by the rising rate backdrop. It's really starting to roll over now, on the cusp of undercutting recent lows and making fresh five-month lows.
S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate index daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Aussie yields soar
[8:53 am] The Australian 10-year yield is now up ~52 bps since late October. It's now trading at the highest levels in November 2023. Not a good look for markets/rate outlook.
Australia 10-year yield weekly chart (Source: TradingView)
RBA hike fears return as data heats up
[8:50 am] Australia’s strong wage and spending data are pushing markets to price in renewed RBA tightening, driving bond yields to year-highs.
Household spending beat expectations in October, boosted by promotions and major events.
Unit labour costs jumped 4.9% over the year, pointing to wage growth inconsistent with the RBA’s inflation target and adding pressure for policy tightening.
Markets now expect a 25 bp RBA rate hike by end-2026, a sharp shift from expectations of cuts only a month ago, with 10-year yields surging to 4.70%.
Additional pressure came from worsening fiscal outlook data, with rising government spending pushing surpluses further out and national debt higher.
Broader indicators such as rising home prices, strong business investment and solid consumption suggest the economy lacks spare capacity, increasing the risk of inflation persistence.
Good morning!
[8:40 am] ASX 200 futures are up 10pts (+0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.
The overnight session in a nutshell:
Major US benchmarks mostly higher, off worst levels amid a relatively sideways session
Overnight recap: S&P 500 (+0.11%), Dow (-0.07%), Nasdaq (+0.22%) and Russell 2000 (+0.78%)
Meta shares rallied 3.4% after reports the company is looking to make budget cuts in Metaverse business by up to 30%
Strong Australian household spending data has now flipped RBA rate expectations to a hike by November 2026
Catch up on all the overnight moves and news via today's Morning Wrap.
