Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to edge higher, S&P 500 flat, RBA now priced to hike in 2026

ASX 200 futures are up 10pts (+0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• I’m back from my holidays (and a big thank you to Vish and Chris for covering the wrap)

• Major US benchmarks recovered from some mid-session weakness to close mostly higher, though stocks are struggling for direction

• ASX now stuck between a rock and a hard place as strong household spending data and high inflation has now priced in a rate hike by November 2026

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 slightly higher after a rather choppy session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher amid a relatively choppy session, where stocks are struggling for direction

• Hassett as Fed chair could ignite bond selloff if policy is loosened and inflation high (FT)

• Chinese state-owned banks buying dollars at fastest pace in 14 months to help rein in yuan strength (RT)

• Copper surges to fresh record high amid rising risks around tariffs (YF)

• China's 30-year yield nears one-year high as investors pull money from fixed-income funds (BBG)

STOCKS

• Meta shares surge on report it is looking to make budget cuts in metaverse business by up to 30% (CNBC)

• Nvidia's Huang unsure whether China will accept H200s if US relaxes export controls (BBG)

• Salesforce revenue and RPO guidance top estimates on Agentforce adoption, shares up ~3% (RT)

• Snowflake margin guidance disappoints, announces $200M partnership with Anthropic (BBG)

• Amazon's massive bet in new fulfilment centres and delivery network has cemented it as key player in US parcel industry (RT)

• Microsoft to increase prices of various Office subscriptions for commercial customers in July (CNBC)

• Amazon to expand its own delivery network, ending long-term US Postal Service partnership (WP)

• Morgan Stanley weighs offloading some of its data centre exposure via significant risk transfer (BBG)

• Anthropic CEO warns AI firms may be assuming excessive risk to fund expansion plans (BBG)

• Dollar Tree rebounds as wealthier shoppers trade down boosting sales and lifting earnings outlook (AX)

TARIFFS

• China making good on soybean purchases, says Bessent (RT)

• China to issue general export licenses for rare earths and magnets, easing shortages and US-EU trade tensions (FT)

• Companies preparing for potential Supreme Court ruling against tariffs, looking to collect ~$200bn in duties collected so far (NYT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ likely to raise rates this month, according to government sources (RT)

• RBA could potentially hike rates in 2026 to combat inflation and strong wage/spending trends (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US initial jobless claims dip to lowest since 2022, though US employers have cut a total 1.1m jobs YTD, the highest since 2020 (RT)

• Australian household spending rises at fastest pace since early 2024, supporting RBA rate hike bets (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Blackstone considering bid for Steadfast Group (The Aus)

• NextDC agrees to MoU with OpenAI to collaborate on planning, development and operation of next-gen hyperscale AI campus at NXT's S7 site in Sydney (NXT)

• Rio Tinto  outlines strategy at its Capital Markets Day, FY25 iron ore shipments guidance unchanged (lower end of 323-338Mt), copper production upgraded to 860-875kt vs. prior 780-850kt (RIO)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Uranium: Strong overnight move for the Uranium ETF (URA up 5.5%), now making a meaningful bounce after a ~30% drawdown between 13-Oct and 21-Nov. Not 100% sure about the catalyst, Nvidia CEO said he expects to see a “bunch of small modular nuclear reactors” run by companies themselves in the next 6-7 years.

• Lithium: Lithium stocks are starting to pull back sharply after a massive ~6 month rally (e.g. PLS pretty much ran from $1 to $4). PLS dipped 4.1% on Thursday, closing just below the 20-day moving average.

BROKER MOVES

• Imdex upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $3.80 from $3.65 (MQG)

• Tabcorp upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $0.90 from $0.70 (JPM)

• Wisetech upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target unchanged at $108.50 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 5 Dec: Bisalloy Group (BIS) – $0.164, Collins Food (CKF) – $0.13

• Mon 8 Dec: None

• Tue 9 Dec: None

• Wed 10 Dec: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Saluda Medical (SLD) at 11:00 am  

• AGMs: Premier Investments (PMV)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.