ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 31st July
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to rally after US chipmakers staged a big resurgence and miners rallied 4-5% overnight. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, July 31. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 higher, off best levels
[2:20 pm] That's a wrap! The S&P/ASX 200 is trading well-below session highs of 1.03%, currently up 0.27% as most sectors eased from best levels. The most notable intraday reversal comes from Materials (+1.49%), which rallied as much as 3.13% in early trade. While far from semis/KOSPI-like volatility, the Materials index has averaged a 1.6% move in either direction for the past eight sessions.
S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)
The ASX closes the week 2.5% higher and trading close to a five-month high. Overall, a rather positive week given the cooler-than-expected CPI print on Wednesday, a sharp pullback in oil prices (Brent down 16% since 23-Jul), still-solid commodity prices (iron ore settling around US$95, copper trading within 3% of all-time highs) and a reassuring update from NAB (sound credit quality, resilience of business lending, improvement in impaired loans, despite sharp decline in home loan applications).
Iron ore lifts on BHP strike threat but weak China demand caps gains
[1:15 pm] Supply disruption fears from looming Port Hedland strikes nudged prices higher, though soft Chinese steel demand keeps iron ore on track for a third monthly decline.
Iron ore up 0.4% to $96.05 a ton, with Singapore futures rising as much as 1.1% after closing Thursday at their lowest since February
BHP strike threat in focus, with unions flagging rolling 24-hour stoppages next week including a ban on loading ships at the world's largest export hub
Prices headed for a third monthly decline as Chinese demand weakens, having slipped 2.5% on Thursday after Beijing held off on fresh stimulus
Chinese steel margins under pressure, with hot metal output falling for a fourth straight week and July factory activity unexpectedly contracting
Fortescue in "good faith" talks with state-backed buyer China Mineral Resources Group on supply agreements, flagged in its quarterly production release
Source: Bloomberg
Analysts' take on PLS Group
[1:13 pm] PLS Group capped the financial year with record annual spodumene production above guidance at Pilgangoora, alongside record shipments that drove a revenue beat despite Port Hedland congestion. Unit costs rose over the quarter on the Ngungaju restart and higher diesel prices but full year costs landed within guidance, while the cash balance strengthened materially.
Analysts broadly welcomed the sales and revenue beat and disciplined cost control, with attention now centred on the Ngungaju ramp and the pathway to a final investment decision on the major expansion in the December quarter. The stock rallied 2.7% on Thursday.
RBC Capital Markets retained Outperform, lowered target from $7.00 to $5.50: record annual production finished in line with guidance, with the Ngungaju restart driving production growth, an expansion decision expected late this calendar year and a potential dividend restart at full year results.
Jarden retained Underweight, raised target from $3.00 to $3.10: lifted forecasts after a strong June quarter but flagged capex guidance above forecasts signalling another spending peak, preferring to await a more attractive entry point.
Macquarie retained Outperform, target maintained at $6.25: sales beat consensus despite port congestion, though capex guidance excludes post-approval expansion spending and the stock is viewed as fully valued currently.
Macquarie halves WiseTech target even as it sees near-term guidance upside
[12:23 pm] Macquarie slashed its price target on removing US container transport from forecasts, while flagging scope for FY27 guidance to surprise to the upside.
Target price cut 52% to $47.1 from $97.7, driven mainly by stripping out US Container Transport Optimisation, where channel checks found no evidence of a near-term rollout
EPS revised by -4%/+11%/-4%/-20% across FY26 to FY29, with the CTO removal the main driver, partly offset by FY27 cost-out and a lower tax rate
FY27 guide seen surprising to the upside as Transitional Pricing Protection rolls off from July, presenting around 2% revenue upside versus consensus
None of the large customers transitioned yet to the new Cargowise Value Pack, at 30-40% of sales but just 5% of customers, leaving further upside optionality
Elevated short interest at about 8.5% alongside high insider ownership, with consensus at the low end of the revenue range setting up potential for an upside surprise
Longer-term thesis stays cautious, with guidance history, limited new-product monetisation and BCO execution risk undermining growth durability
Top ASX 200 gainers and losers at noon
[12:22 pm] Defence, copper and uranium stocks catch a bid, while software and defensives like insurers and healthcare lag.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
EOS | Electro Optic Systems | 10.57% | $6.75 |
SLX | Silex Systems | 9.57% | $4.58 |
4DX | 4Dmedical | 8.41% | $3.48 |
CSC | Capstone Copper Corp | 8.06% | $13.81 |
MP1 | Megaport | 7.98% | $17.53 |
IPX | Iperionx | 7.77% | $3.05 |
FFM | Firefly Metals | 7.74% | $1.74 |
ZIP | Zip Co | 7.42% | $2.54 |
PDN | Paladin Energy | 6.82% | $9.40 |
DYL | Deep Yellow | 6.75% | $1.30 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
WTC | Wisetech Global | -6.10% | $35.58 |
DMP | Domino's Pizza | -5.33% | $18.55 |
CIA | Champion Iron | -5.25% | $3.43 |
CSL | CSL | -4.29% | $122.44 |
SHL | Sonic Healthcare | -3.76% | $21.66 |
FMG | Fortescue | -3.61% | $18.18 |
REA | REA Group | -2.97% | $160.23 |
NWS | News Corpp | -2.81% | $45.32 |
QBE | QBE Insurance | -2.60% | $24.70 |
XRO | Xero | -2.53% | $69.67 |
Capricorn Metals gives back early gains
[11:11 am] Capricorn Metals rallied as much as 5.0% ($13.43) in the first few minutes of trade, now up just 1.4% to $12.96. The stock likely rallied in response to a broad uplift in gold equities overnight and higher gold prices. Capricorn's quarterly result this morning was mixed, with June quarter numbers beating market expectations while the FY27 guidance was a sizeable miss on both costs and production. Here's what we noted earlier:
Gold sold of 34.3koz vs 32.8koz ests (5% beat)
AISC of $1,648/oz vs $1,952/oz ests (16% better)
FY27 guidance of 137-147koz production (+18.3% y/y at midpoint) and AISC of $1,900-2,100/oz
Macquarie forecasts (27-Jul) had FY27 production at 150koz at an AISC of $1,740/oz, so today's guidance represents a (5.3%) and (13%) miss respectively, at the midpoint.
Capricorn Metals intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)
BHP faces rolling strikes at Port Hedland iron ore hub
[11:11 am] Unions have flagged 24-hour stoppages next week at the world's largest iron ore export terminal, threatening flows to China.
Three unions to halt ship loading for 24 hours on 8 August, followed by another stoppage the next day at the Port Hedland Bulk Export Terminal
Terminal ships more than 500 million tons a year, mostly to China, so any disruption could reverberate through the global iron ore market
Dispute has run more than six months, with unions arguing BHP wants workers on lower base salaries topped up by discretionary payments outside the deal
Unions oppose individual employment contracts, saying terms can be changed at the company's discretion
Fair Work Commission hearing set for 4 August, following an earlier eight-hour strike this month and talks that ended without a breakthrough
Source: Bloomberg
Kospi rockets record 15% as AI trade roars back to life
[11:10 am] Korean stocks opened sharply higher this morning as big tech spending plans and regulatory support sparked a violent rebound, with SK Hynix and Samsung leading after this week's rout.
Kospi soared as much as 15% to a one-month high, after tumbling 17% over the prior three sessions
SK Hynix jumped a record 28%, helped by SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won's first direct personal purchase of 3,620 shares worth about 4.8 billion won (US$3.2m)
Samsung Electronics rose as much as 26%, with the rally shrugging off this week's earlier deleveraging-driven selloff
Cbus trims Australian shares for global and emerging markets
[11:09 am] The $81 billion fund is the latest big local investor to cut its reliance on a concentrated ASX dominated by banks and miners.
Cbus cut domestic equities by one percentage point to 22.5% of its main investment option
Global stocks lifted half a point to 28.5%, with emerging markets also up half a point to 3%, and a decent chunk of the global money going to the Magnificent Seven
CEO Kristian Fok flagged concentration in a market dominated by a small number of banks and resources firms, seeing better value and opportunity in emerging markets
Domestic profit forecasts have stalled over the past three months while overseas earnings projections keep climbing, ahead of the August reporting season
Australia's $4.4tn pension industry returned an estimated 9.5% for balanced options, with about half the pool now invested offshore, as peer Brighter Super also tilts global
Source: Bloomberg
Advanced Innergy down 62% since IPO
[10:56 am] Advanced Innergy shares tumbled 33.6% after the company slashed its FY26 guidance. The company made its ASX debut last October, with the share price now down 62% from the offer price of $1.00 per share.
FY26 revenue guided to ~£162m (A$334m), down 14% from prior guidance of £188m (A$388m)
FY26 underlying EBITDA guided to ~£20m (A$41m), down 34% from £30.2m (A$62.3m)
Customers are delaying new and existing energy projects and associated orders while uncertainty persists
The prior guidance was reaffirmed at the company's 1H26 result on 28 May, so this flags a rather sharp deterioration in outlook in just two months.
Advanced Innergy price chart (Source: TradingView)
Gold stocks broadly higher
[10:25 am] The All Ords Gold Index is up 3.1% in early trade, recouping most of Thursday's 3.6% dip.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 week | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SBM | St. Barbara | 8.0% | $0.47 | 3.3% | -18.3% |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining | 6.4% | $1.12 | 6.9% | -27.0% |
PNR | Pantoro Gold | 6.3% | $2.11 | 2.4% | -56.9% |
BC8 | Black Cat Syndicate | 5.9% | $0.90 | -0.6% | -25.9% |
RSG | Resolute Mining | 5.0% | $0.95 | -2.1% | -22.9% |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | 4.7% | $136.52 | 0.2% | -9.1% |
WGX | Westgold Resources | 4.6% | $4.78 | 1.3% | -24.1% |
BGL | Bellevue Gold | 4.6% | $1.26 | -3.1% | -25.4% |
MEK | Meeka Metals | 4.4% | $0.10 | 1.1% | -64.8% |
VAU | Vault Minerals | 4.3% | $4.90 | -1.6% | -9.9% |
EMR | Emerald Resources | 4.2% | $5.43 | -0.2% | -13.5% |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | 4.1% | $5.88 | -1.3% | -17.9% |
ALK | Alkane Resources | 3.8% | $1.37 | 0.0% | 2.6% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | 3.3% | $11.43 | 1.1% | -9.1% |
AMI | Aurelia Metals | 3.2% | $0.33 | 0.0% | 32.7% |
RRL | Regis Resources | 3.1% | $6.10 | -2.2% | -18.9% |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | 3.1% | $3.17 | 2.4% | -22.6% |
PRU | Perseus Mining | 2.1% | $4.96 | 1.0% | -10.0% |
NST | Northern Star Resources | 2.0% | $20.43 | 1.1% | -16.8% |
CMM | Capricorn Metals | 1.8% | $13.01 | 4.1% | -7.1% |
CYL | Catalyst Metals | 1.5% | $5.58 | -4.7% | -24.5% |
Copper stocks higher this morning
[10:20 am] Copper stocks are broadly higher in early trade after copper prices rallied 2.4% overnight to US$6.55/lb.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 week | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29M | 29Metals | 8.2% | $0.27 | 6.0% | -49.7% |
CSC | Capstone Copper Corp | 8.1% | $13.82 | 3.9% | -8.8% |
FFM | Firefly Metals | 7.1% | $1.73 | -0.6% | -16.0% |
AIS | Aeris Resources | 6.7% | $0.40 | 3.9% | -33.3% |
HCH | Hot Chili | 4.7% | $1.46 | -2.7% | 4.7% |
SFR | Sandfire Resources | 3.9% | $19.23 | 2.7% | 7.1% |
AR1 | Austral Resources Australia | 3.1% | $0.07 | 1.5% | 15.8% |
BHP | BHP Group | 2.8% | $60.80 | 2.0% | 33.5% |
RIO | Rio Tinto | 2.0% | $171.72 | 6.0% | 17.0% |
CYM | Cyprium Metals | 1.2% | $0.43 | 3.6% | -18.8% |
Top ASX 200 gainers and losers
[10:10 am] Here are the top movers in early trade. Miners including copper, lithium and gold top the leaderboards, meanwhile healthcare, staples and telcos are lagging.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
MP1 | Megaport | 10.10% | $17.87 |
CSC | Capstone Copper Corp | 9.62% | $14.01 |
SLX | Silex Systems | 9.33% | $4.57 |
ELV | Elevra Lithium | 7.55% | $7.69 |
ZIP | Zip Co | 7.42% | $2.54 |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining | 7.14% | $1.13 |
FFM | Firefly Metals | 7.12% | $1.73 |
LTR | Liontown | 7.11% | $1.06 |
DYL | Deep Yellow | 6.75% | $1.30 |
IPX | Iperionx | 6.71% | $3.02 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
DMP | Domino's Pizza | -2.96% | $19.01 |
NWS | News Corp | -2.32% | $45.55 |
SHL | Sonic Healthcare | -2.18% | $22.01 |
QBE | QBE Insurance | -2.17% | $24.81 |
XRO | Xero | -2.03% | $70.03 |
CSL | CSL | -2.02% | $125.34 |
WTC | Wisetech Global | -1.77% | $37.22 |
RMD | Resmed | -1.69% | $29.74 |
COH | Cochlear | -1.59% | $120.26 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | -1.49% | $19.13 |
Michael Hill guides FY26 comparable EBIT up as much as 57%
[9:32 am] Michael Hill lifted full-year same store sales across all three markets, with comparable EBIT set to rise sharply on last year but landing below consensus.
FY26 comparable EBIT of $22.0-24.0m, up 44-57% on last year's $15.3m, vs $25.5m ests (~10% miss at midpoint)
Total sales of $654.7m, up 2.0% (+3.9% constant currency), vs $662.6m ests (1% miss)
Group same store sales up 3.0% (+5.2% constant currency) to $639.8m
Australia (incl Bevilles) SSS up 4.8%, Canada up a record 7.0%, and New Zealand up 3.6% on a second-half acceleration
Store network closed to 281 from 287, with eight closures and two openings across the year
Company page: Michael Hill International (MHJ)
Temple & Webster launches on-market buyback of up to 10% of issued capital
[9:28 am] Temple & Webster will buy back up to 10% of its issued capital on market over the next 12 months without shareholder approval, with the stock down 60% year to date.
On-market buyback to run from 19 August 2026 to 18 August 2027
Based on 116,546,731 shares on issue, that caps the buyback at ~11.7m shares
Buyback price not to exceed 5% above the VWAP over the five trading days prior to each purchase
Canaccord Genuity to execute on market, with consideration paid in AUD
Company page: Temple & Webster Group (TPW)
Advanced Innergy cuts FY26 guidance as Middle East conflict stalls energy projects
[9:24 am] Advanced Innergy has downgraded FY26 revenue and earnings guidance, citing project delays and supply-chain cost pressures from the escalating Middle East conflict.
FY26 revenue guided to ~£162m (A$334m), down 14% from prior guidance of £188m (A$388m)
FY26 underlying EBITDA guided to ~£20m (A$41m), down 34% from £30.2m (A$62.3m)
Customers are delaying new and existing energy projects and associated orders while uncertainty persists
Reduced availability and higher costs for key manufacturing inputs have squeezed margins on fixed-price contracts
Order book of ~£133m (A$274m) at 30 June, up 15% on the prior quarter, including delayed projects expected to convert in FY27
Revised guidance excludes any contribution from acquisitions completed during the period
Company page: Advanced Innergy Holdings (AIH)
Origin flags 900,000 customers hit in data breach as APLNG caps FY26 above guidance midpoint
[9:16 am] Origin delivered a steady June quarter across gas and energy markets, with APLNG production landing above the guidance midpoint, alongside disclosure of a customer data breach.
APLNG FY26 production of 668 PJ came in above the 645-680 PJ guidance midpoint, with Origin receiving $911m in fully franked dividends
Q4 APLNG revenue up 6% on the prior quarter to $1,964m on higher LNG spot volumes and prices
Data security incident confirmed information from ~900,000 customers was accessed, with the matter still under criminal investigation
Energy Markets FY26 EBITDA expected above the $1,550-1,750m guidance midpoint, with customer accounts up 243,000 and 980MW/3,408MWh of battery storage now operating
Octopus grew accounts by 343,000 in the quarter for 2.2m FY26 organic growth, with Kraken revenue up 19% and its US$1bn equity raise completed in July
FY27 APLNG guidance of 625-670 PJ production, lower on natural field decline, with capex and opex higher at $3.0-3.3bn on increased drilling
Macquarie (10-Jul) had FY27 APLNG production at 666PJ, so the midpoint of today's guidance is a (2.7%) miss against forecasts.
Company page: Origin Energy (ORG)
Fortescue tops 200Mt for the first time but Q4 shipments narrowly miss ests
[9:10 am] Fortescue delivered record annual iron ore shipments of 201.3Mt in FY26, with Q4 shipments and costs landing just shy of consensus, and issued FY27 guidance.
Q4 iron ore shipments of 52.7Mt vs 53.0Mt ests (1% miss)
Comprising Hematite of 50.0Mt and Iron Bridge of 2.7Mt
Ore mined of 64.9Mt vs 64.4Mt ests (1% beat)
Hematite C1 unit cost of US$19.37/wmt vs US$19.84/wmt ests (2% better)
Hematite realised price of US$88.85/dmt vs US$91.95/dmt ests (3% miss), at 84% of the Platts 61% index
Net debt of US$0.8bn, better than US$1.12bn ests, with cash of US$5.1bn after US$3.6bn FY26 capex
FY27 guidance of 197-207Mt shipments, Hematite C1 cost of US$20.50-21.75/wmt and Metals capex of US$3.7-4.7bn
Macquarie forecasts (10-Jul) had FY27 shipments at 203Mt at C1 costs of US$19.40/t.
Company page: Fortescue (FMG)
Capricorn beats on gold sold and costs, guides FY27 output up to 147koz
[9:08 am] Capricorn delivered record annual gold production at Karlawinda and beat consensus on Q4 volumes and costs, and issued FY27 guidance.
Gold sold of 34.3koz vs 32.8koz ests (5% beat)
AISC of $1,648/oz vs $1,952/oz ests (16% better)
Realised price of $6,267/oz vs $6,461/oz ests (3% miss)
Cash and bullion of $507.0m, in line with the preliminary report, with operating cashflow of $135.1m and receipts from customers of $215.2m
Record annual production of 123,589oz at AISC of $1,629/oz, hitting the top of guidance
FY27 guidance of 137-147koz production (+18.3% y/y at midpoint), AISC of $1,900-2,100/oz and growth capital of $70m-85m as KEP transitions into operations, with plant commissioning expected this quarter
Macquarie forecasts (27-Jul) had FY27 production at 150koz at an AISC of $1,740/oz, so today's guidance represents a (5.3%) and (13%) miss respectively, at the midpoint.
Company page: Capricorn Metals (CMM)
ASX quarterlies: Broken Hill Mines lifts silver, Carma volumes surge, Arafura funds Nolans build
[9:05 am] Three June quarter reports out today spanning silver-lead-zinc, used cars and rare earths.
Broken Hill Mines (BHM) lifted silver production 21.8% to 95,787oz and zinc 7% to 3,331t, with third ore source Pinnacles now feeding the Rasp mill and total liquidity of $53m
BHM posted operating cashflow of $9.1m on a record June month, and post-quarter flagged a potential high grade discovery below the Globe-Vauxhall Shear at Rasp
Carma (CMA) grew total units sold 133% to 1,848 and revenue 84% to $34.2m, though gross profit per retail unit fell 14% to $2,800 on a softer used car market
Carma held $41.3m of available funding, with an operating cash outflow of $5.9m excluding a $10.7m vehicle inventory build
Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) moved Nolans into execution after its 21 May FID, backed by a $350m placement at $0.26 and two 500tpa NdPr offtake term sheets priced off a global seaborne index
Arafura closed the quarter with $723m in cash and term deposits, up from $561m, ahead of a pro forma balance of ~$1,352m once cornerstone investors settle
Monadelphous unit wins $165m Rio Tinto contract in the Pilbara
[9:04 am] Kerman Contracting has secured a design and construction contract with Rio Tinto tied to the Brockman Syncline 1 project in Western Australia.
Contract valued at approximately $165m for non-process infrastructure at BS1
Scope covers a heavy mine equipment workshop plus washdown, tyre change and fuel storage and refuelling facilities
Work begins in 2026 and is scheduled for completion in 2028
Builds on the multidisciplinary construction contract Monadelphous won at BS1 late last year
Adds to Kerman's existing Rio Tinto work at Hope Downs 2
Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)
Amazon smashes Q2 on AWS strength but soft guide overshadows
[8:57 am] AWS delivered its fastest growth in 18 quarters and margins blew past expectations, though Q3 revenue guidance landed below the Street. Amazon shares are currently up 9.3% after hours.
Revenue up 20% to US$200.6bn vs US$196.4bn ests (2.1% beat)
AWS sales up 37% to US$42.2bn vs US$40.5bn ests (4.2% beat)
AWS operating margin 39.4% vs 33.8% ests (5.6pp beat)
Operating income up 43% to US$27.5bn vs US$23.53bn ests (16.9% beat)
North America up 16% to US$116.2bn vs US$113.8bn ests (2.1% beat)
Q3 revenue guided to US$197bn to US$202bn, the US$199.5bn midpoint below US$204bn ests (2.2% miss)
Amazon lifts 2026 capex to US$220bn as memory costs bite and AI demand surges
[8:57 am] CEO Andy Jassy flagged AWS could eventually become a US$1 trillion business, with capacity already reserved deep into 2028 and demand still outstripping supply.
On AWS momentum: "AWS is booming, growing 36.7% year-over-year in Q2—our fastest growth in 18 quarters—and our AI and Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion."
On raising capex to US$220bn: "The higher cost of memory is pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion. Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027."
On demand visibility: "The demand we already have for 2028 is striking... If the demand isn't there, we won't spend the capital for servers and networking equipment."
On AI infrastructure returns: "On average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even on that investment. The servers currently have a useful life of at least 5 to 6 years, and most of our AI capacity these days is being contracted for at least five-year terms."
On AWS's long-term potential: "We've long believed AWS could become a few hundred billion-dollar revenue business. We now believe it will be at least double that, and very possibly be a $1 TRILLION annual revenue business for us in time."
On reserved capacity: "The lion's share of the capacity we're adding in 2027 is already reserved, and quite a bit of our 2028 capacity is already reserved... expect to have double the power capacity by the end of 2027 that we had in 2025."
Apple beats on revenue and profit but China and Services disappoint
[8:55 am] Strong iPhone and Mac sales drove a top and bottom-line beat, though Greater China and Services both came in soft. Apple shares are down 6.0% after hours.
Revenue up 16.4% to US$109.42bn vs US$108.85bn ests (0.5% beat)
EPS up 28.7% to US$2.02 vs US$1.89 ests (6.9% beat)
iPhone revenue up 21.7% to US$54.25bn vs US$53.6bn ests (1.2% beat)
Services up 12.1% to US$30.74bn vs US$31.36bn ests (2% miss)
Greater China up 22.4% to US$18.82bn vs US$19.58bn ests (3.9% miss)
Net income up 27.1% to US$29.79bn vs US$27.67bn ests (7.7% beat)
Q4 revenue guided up 9% to 11% to around $112bn to $114bn, with the $113bn midpoint below $114.84bn ests (1.6% miss)
Apple flags "100-year flood" in memory pricing as costs keep climbing
[8:54 am] Tim Cook warned of exponential memory price increases forcing product price hikes, while iPhone hit June quarter records across every region.
On iPhone strength: "iPhone revenue for the June quarter was 54.3 billion dollars, up 22% from a year ago. We achieved June quarter records in every geographic segment, and set a June quarter record for upgraders. According to IDC, we gained share globally during the quarter."
On memory pricing: "We reluctantly raised prices because we're in what I would characterise as a 100-year flood in memory pricing, with exponential increases in memory prices. It's too early to reach a definitive conclusion on price elasticity."
On memory costs rising further: "We paid more for memory in the March quarter than in the December quarter... we expected to pay significantly more in the June quarter than the March quarter. And that is what happened... For September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs."
On the outlook beyond September: "If you look beyond September, we see the market pricing for memory continuing to increase, which could drive an increasing impact on our business."
On DRAM supply: "Primarily, the DRAM market has three suppliers. Obviously, if there were more suppliers, that would be good. It would help us on the supply side and perhaps the pricing side... We're evaluating all options."
On gross margin: "Company gross margin was 50.1%, up 80 basis points sequentially. This included a benefit from tariff refunds, which had a favorable impact of approximately 2 percentage points."
Oil retreats even as US and Iran trade fresh strikes across the Middle East
[8:50 am] Renewed hostilities have widened the five-month war and kept Hormuz shut, though a Saudi push for a naval coalition took some heat out of crude.
Brent fell 1.2% to US$87 a barrel overnight after Saudi Arabia proposed a naval coalition to protect shipping
US hit dozens of IRGC targets in a two-hour wave, while Iran struck air bases in Jordan and Kuwait, killing one worker in Kuwait
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, with tanker traffic halted and Iran claiming full control of the waterway
OPEC+ expected to add 188,000 barrels a day for September at its 2 August meeting, completing the unwinding of 1.65 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts
Saudi economy shrank most since 2020 in the second quarter, driven by a 24.7% drop in the oil sector, with the 400,000 barrel a day Jazan refinery shut after Houthi attacks
US commercial crude stockpiles at lowest since 2018, eroding the buffer against lost Middle Eastern barrels as munitions strains and midterm politics weigh on Trump's escalation options
US growth slows to 1.5% in Q2 as core inflation stays stuck at 3.3%
[8:50 am] Second-quarter growth undershot expectations on weaker government spending and inventories, while inflation held well above the Fed's target.
GDP grew just 1.5% in the second quarter, below the 1.8% expected and down from 2.1% in the first quarter, dragged by a 0.7% inventory drop and a 0.3% fall in federal spending
Core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.1% for the month, versus forecasts of 3.3% and 0.2%, with headline PCE at 3.7%
Underlying demand stayed strong, with final sales to private domestic purchasers up 3.9% and personal spending up 2.1%
Savings rate fell to 2.7%, the lowest in four years, as consumers dipped into savings to keep spending
Energy prices tumbled 5.9% in June on a temporary easing in Middle East fighting, with gasoline down 9.2%
Source: CNBC
Global funds stay wary of Korean stocks despite record-cheap valuations
[8:49 am] Extreme volatility from the market's concentration in Samsung and SK Hynix is keeping investors on the sidelines even after July's record plunge.
Kospi down 34% in July, leaving it at its cheapest valuation ever at under six times forward earnings
Volatility Index surged to 87, more than triple its December level, with nine circuit-breaker halts this month
Global funds pulled a net US$12bn from Korea in July, with Pictet, Robeco and Eastspring holding off
Retail margin loans down 14% from the peak to 33.2 trillion won (US$23bn) as of 28 July
Fidelity and Federated Hermes adding back in a disciplined way, with Federated favouring Samsung as the cheapest large-cap AI stock globally
Korean authorities plan tighter caps on retail exposure to leveraged ETFs after an emergency meeting
Source: Bloomberg
Global funds eye Australia and Europe over Treasuries on Fed inflation doubts
[8:46 am] Waning confidence in the Fed's inflation fight is pushing investors to trim long-dated Treasuries and add front-end bonds in markets with clearer central bank frameworks.
Schroders, which oversees US$1.1tn, is adding to bearish Treasury bets and buying front-end bonds in Australia, the UK and eurozone while short US five and 10-year notes
Fed held rates with inflation still running at 3.5%, sending 30-year Treasury yields to their highest since 2007
30-year Treasury yields up about 27 basis points over three months, versus just 9 for Australian equivalents and 7 for gilts
Gama Asset Management is adding Australia, South Korea, Singapore and Norway while trimming longer-dated Treasuries
BlackRock favours income and diversification, flagging Chinese government bonds as a defensive anchor plus Australia and India for attractive income
Source: Bloomberg
Yen surges most since 2023 on suspected intervention ahead of BOJ
[8:46 am] The yen jumped as much as 3.3% against the dollar after Nikkei reported Japanese authorities stepped back into the market to prop up the currency.
Yen up as much as 3.3% intraday, its biggest such move since December 2023, closing at 159.53 per dollar
Nikkei reported the Japanese government and BOJ intervened, with US authorities also requesting dollar-yen quotes
Japan spent a record ¥11.73 trillion (US$73.2bn) buying the yen last quarter, likely drawing on foreign reserves including US Treasuries
BOJ decides on rates Friday and is expected to hold after last month's hike lifted the benchmark to its highest since 1995
Yen had recently sunk to a four-decade low on rising oil prices, budget deficits and a wide US-Japan rate gap
Source: Bloomberg
Wall Street rebounds as Microsoft and chips snap losing streaks
[8:43 am] A 15.5% surge in Microsoft and a broad semiconductor bounce drove the major indices sharply higher, unwinding much of the post-Fed sell-off.
Nasdaq Composite up 2.8% to 25,122.18, ending a six-day losing streak, with the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Dow up 1.2%
Microsoft up 15.5% on Azure-driven growth, the standout catalyst behind the rebound
Semiconductors led the charge, with the SOX up 8.2%, Micron up 18%, AMD up 13% and Sandisk up 26%
Chips still headed for their worst month since 2008, with July losses trimmed to 21% after the bounce
30-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2007, ending near 5.21% as long-end yields kept rising post-Fed
Meta down 8% after a soft revenue forecast and a 91% drop in second-quarter free cash flow
Good morning!
[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 99 pts (+1.11%).
The overnight session in a nutshell:
Major US benchmarks pushed higher in early trade and closed near best levels
The tech heavy Nasdaq (+2.7%) snapped a six-day losing streak, as investors returned to the AI trade, S&P 500 (+1.66%) and Dow Jones (+1.19%) also higher
Microsoft surged over 15% adding roughly $450bn in market cap, a record one-day gain in value, while chipmakers also bounced with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining (+8%)
