ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 27th February

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, February 27. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

That's a wrap

[2:20 pm] Well ... that's reporting season over. I wouldn't be surprised if analysts call it "the most volatile" one on record. It was certainly a challenging one, where other factors such as valuation, sentiment, guidance (e.g. reaffirming guidance but suggesting a big second half is needed), technicals and momentum may have been more important than the result itself. Nevertheless, the results should put the market on a strong footing, especially after:

• Financials (XFJ) now back near record highs, will likely struggle for further upside due to valuation, but Big Four Bank results were broadly ahead on earnings, cost management, bad debts and dividends

• Materials (XMJ) also back at record highs. Have you seen BHP? It hit six straight all-time highs and rallied almost ~15% since its result (17-Feb)

• Telcos (XTJ) is trading above its 50-day moving average for the first time since Nov-25. Though Telstra is trading at the highest since Jan-17 after its 1H26 result issued a stronger-than-expected dividend and upsized buyback

• Energy (XEJ) at the highest since Oct-24, although some of this strength might be attributed to oil's geopolitical premium (analysts say US-Iran tensions have tabbed on US$5-6/lb). That said, heavyweights Woodside and Santos are both starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. 2026 will mark a transition year for Woodside, where major projects like Scarborough are on track to deliver its first LNG. Santos is also set to ramp up Barossa and Pikka projects throughout the year

While sectors like Tech, Retail and Healthcare remain a sore spot, the market, in aggregate, has looked very strong this earnings season. I'll have some better numbers for you next week.

Things tend to get a little quiet after reporting season, so maybe we ... run some Q&A? If you have any questions (or feedback/comments about how we went during February), please feel free to reach me at [email protected].

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Analysts' take on Ramsay Health Care

[1:33 pm] RHC is up 3% at $43.40 after its first-half result on Thursday, with analysts calling it ahead of consensus on the headline numbers, driven by stronger Australian momentum and some favourable below-the-line items.

• Morgan Stanley maintained Underweight, raised target from $34.20 to $35.70. It said the NPAT beat was helped by below-the-line items, and warned offshore tariff settings remain constrained. It also argued the Santé valuation is largely priced in, and earnings forecasts still sit below broader consensus.

• Goldman Sachs maintained Neutral, raised target from $39.00 to $40.30. It highlighted indexation running ahead of labour inflation and market share gains via doctor recruitment and theatre utilisation initiatives.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

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Lithium stocks lower

[1:08 pm] Lithium carbonate price is down 1.9% to 174,000 yuan a tonne, dragging lithium stocks lower by 2-7%.

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Gold stocks broadly higher

[12:08 pm] Gold stocks are trading broadly higher as the gold price was up 0.4% overnight at around US$5,185/oz. All Ords Gold Index is up 3%, pushing to a two-week high.

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Analysts downgrade Atlas Arteria as targets slip

[11:41 am] ALX is down 1.2% at $4.86 after Thursday's FY25 result announcement. Analysts called the result broadly in line, but said the investment case is still being driven by distribution sustainability, French tax risk and currency headwinds.

• Morgans downgraded to Trim from Hold, lowered target from $4.58 to $4.31. It said the distribution is being propped up by temporary cash reserves, flagged rising corporate costs, and stayed cautious on asset quality and the steady valuation drag at APRR.

• Macquarie maintained Outperform, lowered target from $5.55 to $5.43. It highlighted Greenway traffic momentum supporting the upcoming pricing case and said hedging adds near term stability. It trimmed forecasts for elevated overheads and the extended French temporary tax, which it said will weigh on free cash flow.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: Atlas Arteria (ALX)

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Analysts lift Lynas target price

[11:21 am] LYC is up 7% at $18.46, after its half-year result on Thursday as the market looked through a modest NPAT miss and instead focused on stronger rare earth price momentum.

• Ord Minnett maintained Sell, raised target from $11.00 to $14.00. It said the profit uplift was driven by higher Chinese NdPr benchmarks (more supply curbs than demand), but flagged low conviction in price sustainability and argued the multiple already looks elevated, despite a healthy catalyst pipeline.

• Bell Potter maintained Sell, raised target from $11.15 to $11.60. It pointed to margin recovery from a better sales mix, but said higher depreciation and overheads weighed on NPAT, with utilisation improvements needed to drive further margin expansion given a premium valuation.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

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Analysts split on Qantas target price

[10:49 am] Qantas’ first-half result announced on Thursday was modestly ahead of expectations at the profit line, helped by cost control and margin performance, with strength across Domestic, Jetstar and Loyalty.

The company also lifted the base dividend and announced a buyback, but the stock still fell 9.2% on result day.

• UBS maintained Buy, raised target from $11.50 to $11.60. It viewed the result as broadly in line, said capital returns exceeded its prior assumptions, and framed International concerns as manageable while calling the market reaction overdone.

• E&P maintained positive, lowered target from $12.26 to $12.02. It said near term cost pressures should unwind, fleet renewal should lift group margins over time, and the balance sheet supports further distributions, with the sell off looking overdone.

QAN is up 1.8% at $9.84 in morning trade.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: Qantas (QAN)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:24 am] Block and PEXA are leading early gains on earnings-driven rallies, while Lynas is extending yesterday’s post-result strength. On the flipside, Coles and Harvey Norman are sliding after announcing their results today.

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Coles tumbles 7% as investors pivot back to Woolworths

[10:18 am] Coles has nosedived 7% in early trade despite reporting a relatively in-line 1H26 result. Perhaps the tide is shifting back to Woolies?

Here are the key numbers from the 1H26 result

• Revenue up 2.5% to $23.6bn vs. $23.7bn ests (0.4% miss)

• NPAT up 12.5% to $676m ex-items vs. $678.6m ests (in-line)

• Interim dividend of 41 cps vs. Morgans ests of 41 cps (in-line)

• In the first seven weeks of the third quarter, Supermarket sales revenue up 3.7% (5.3% ex-tobacco)

• Over the same time period, Woolworths noted 5.8% sales growth (7.2% ex-tobacco)

To below chart shows the Woolworths-to-Coles share price ratio (basically Woolworths dividend by Coles). Historically, this ratio sat around ~2 but aggressively tumbled to a low of 1.1 in October 2025. This a sustained period of outperformance from Coles, as well as Woolworths battling challenges with Big W, a worker strike, Petstock acquisition and more.

The tide is now turning as Woolworths' sales growth begins to accelerate (and beat Coles).

Woolworths vs. Coles share price chart (Source: TradingView)

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NAB CEO sells shares on market

[9:46 am] NAB CEO Andrew Irvine has sold shares on market, with the transaction taking place on Tuesday, 24 February.

• Irvine sold 40,000 shares, representing a 21% reduction in his holding

• He beneficially owns 153,000 shares following the transaction

• Irvine previously sold 31,000 shares on 26 February

• NAB shares up are 15.6% YTD and up 38% in the last twelve months to record levels

Company page: National Australia Bank (NAB)

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Harvey Norman delivers strong 1H26 beat

[9:40 am] Harvey Norman posted a broad beat across all key metrics, with profit before tax up 16.5%, system sales up 6.9%, and standout performances from overseas retail operations, while early H2 trading remains positive.

• Total revenue up 6.9% to $5.16bn

• EBIT up 14.4% to $527.5m vs. $436.6m ests (21% beat)

• EBITDA to 14.9% to $667.9m vs. $560.9m ests (19% beat)

• Reported profit after tax and non-controlling interest up 15.2% to $321.9m vs. $261.1m ests (23% beat)

• Australian franchisee sales up 4.8% to $3.50bn, with AI-enabled computing and mobile devices particularly strong

• Overseas retail PBT up 35.6% to $92.1m, with record first-half profits from Singapore and Malaysia, UK remains in establishment phase as expected

• Property segment PBT up 7.8% to $178.8m, supported by rental growth and low vacancy

• Interim dividend up 21% to 14.5 cps

January trading update positive with aggregated system sales up 4.6% in year-on-year, UK franchisee sales up 34.6% in local currency, NZ up 7.6%, Ireland up 8.0% and Singapore up 8.7%.

Company page: Harvey Norman (HVN)

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WiseTech CEO buys shares on market

[9:35 am] WiseTech CEO Zubin Appoo has purchased shares indirectly through a discretionary trust.

• Appoo acquired 20,000 shares at $49.00 per share (vs. Thursday's close of $49.00) fora total consideration of $1.0 million

• The transaction lifts his beneficial ownership by 24% to 102,000 shares in the company

• Wisetech shares rallied 11% to $47.74 on the day of its 1H26 result (25-Feb)

• The stock remains 28% lower YTD and down 52% in the last twelve months

Company page: WiseTech Global (WTC)

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Coles 1H26 soft as Liquor weakness offsets solid supermarkets performance

[9:32 am] Coles delivered a modest miss on EBIT and revenue in H1, with strong supermarkets momentum and ecommerce growth offset by continued softness in Liquor and one-off legal costs from the Fair Work Ombudsman judgment.

• Revenue up 2.5% to $23.6bn vs. $23.7bn ests (0.4% miss)

• EBIT up 10.2% to $1.23bn ex-items vs. $1.25bn ests (1.6% miss)

• Supermarkets EBIT margin up 55 bps to 5.8%, in-line with Morgans ests

• NPAT up 12.5% to $676m ex-items vs. $678.6m ests (in-line)

• Interim dividend of 41 cps vs. Morgans ests of 41 cps (in-line)

• Supermarkets sales revenue up 3.6% to $21.4bn (up 6.1% adjusted for competitor industrial action and excluding tobacco)

• Liquor sales revenue down 3.2%, though the rate of decline moderated to 2.5% year-on-year in the trading update period

• Statutory results include a $235m significant item ($165m after tax) relating to the Federal Court judgment in the Fair Work Ombudsman proceedings

In the first seven weeks of the third quarter, Supermarket sales revenue up 3.7% (5.3% ex-tobacco). Over the same time period, Woolworths noted 5.8% sales growth (7.2% ex-tobacco).

Company page: Coles Group (COL)

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Virgin Australia beats across the board

[9:25 am] Virgin Australia delivered a clean beat on all key metrics in its first half, with underlying EBIT up 11.7% and NPAT up 20.7%, underpinned by strong leisure demand, yield improvement and over $200m in transformation benefits. The stock slipped 3.6% on Thursday, a sympathy move after Qantas (-9.2%) tumbled after its 1H26 result.

• Revenue up 9.3% to $3.32bn vs. $3.27bn ests (2% beat)

• Underlying EBIT up 11.7% to $490.4m vs. $470.9m ests (4% beat)

• EBIT margin up 40bps to 14.8%

• Underlying NPAT up 20.7% to $278.7m vs. $260.8m ests (7% beat)

• Virgin Australia now fully tax paying following utilisation of all remaining tax losses

• Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre (RASK) growth of 6.4%

• Net debt of $1.0bn, representing 0.9x underlying EBITDA, below the 1-2x target range but expected to increase in the second half amid fleet renewals

Outlook commentary:

• 2H26 EBIT growth and margin accretion expected, with RASK growth of 3-4%

• Gross transformation benefits of more than $400m expected for the full year

• FY26 capex guided at $850-950m vs. $888m ests (in line), inclusive of four Boeing 737 Max aircraft purchases, with around $200m in sale and leaseback proceeds expected in H2

• Leverage expected to remain at the low end of the 1-2x target range at year end, with management flagging optionality for future shareholder distributions

Company page: Virgin Australia (VGN)

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Bubs delivers strong 1H26 earnings beat as US momentum drives turnaround

[9:16 am] Bubs posted a significant EBITDA beat and returned to profitability in the first half. US revenue growth of 48% the standout driver, while full-year guidance was upgraded. It's worth noting that consensus here is just 1-2 brokers, so not the most reliable/possibly outdated forecasts.

• Revenue up 14% to $55.5m vs. $56.0m ests (1% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 780% vs. $4.4m vs. $3.0m ests (47% beat)

• NPAT of $2.2m vs. $3.0m ests (27% miss)

• Gross margin steady down 100 bps to 48%

• US revenue up 48% to $34.2m, now the primary growth engine as major retailers expand store counts and in-store ranging

• FY26 revenue guidance reaffirmed at $120-125m vs. $120.8m ests (in line)

• FY26 EBITDA guidance upgraded to $4.0-6.0mvs. $2.9m ests (72% beat at midpoint)

• Management flagged confidence in exceeding FY26 commitments, with China and Australia/ROW markets also stabilising

Company page: Bubs Australia (BUB)

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TPG meets earnings expectations, lifts dividend as mobile growth accelerates

[9:13 am] TPG delivered a solid FY25 result in line with consensus on EBITDA, with mobile subscriber momentum and a simplified cost base setting up a constructive FY26 outlook.

• Revenue of $5.04bn vs. $5.00bn ests (1% beat)

• Service revenue up 2.2% to $4.18bn, with mobile service revenue up 4.2% to $2.42bn driven by 228,000 net new subscribers and ARPU growth of $0.49 to $35.51

• EBITDA up 18.4% to $1.66bn vs. $1.64bn ests (in line)

• NPAT of $60m ex-items vs. $43.4m ests (38% beat)

• Underlying NPATA up 16.1% to $130m

• Full year dividend of 18 cps vs. 17 cps ests (5.8% beat)

• FY26 EBITDA guidance of $1.665-1.735bn vs. $1.71bn ests (1% miss at midpoint)

• FY27 capex guided to the higher end of $550-650m, reflecting an expected step-down as network investment normalises

Company page: TPG Telecom (TPG)

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Block beats across the board and raises guidance as Dorsey cuts workforce by 40%

[9:09 am] Block delivered a strong Q4 with beats on revenue, earnings and operating income, raised full-year guidance materially, and announced a sweeping restructuring that will reduce headcount from over 10,000 to just under 6,000.

• Revenue of $6.25bn vs. $6.23bn ests (in line)

• EPS of $0.65 ex-items vs. $0.64 ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted operating income of $588m vs. $500m ests (18% beat)

• Q1 gross profit guidance of $2.80bn vs. $2.72bn ests (3% beat)

• FY26 EPS guidance of $3.66 ex-items vs. prior guidance of $3.20 and $3.19 ests (15% beat vs. ests)

• FY26 gross profit guidance of $12.20bn vs. prior $11.98bn and $11.94bn ests (2% beat vs. ests)

• FY26 operating income guidance of $3.20bn ex-items vs. prior $2.70bn and $2.50bn ests (28% beat vs. ests)

Dorsey framed the ~40% headcount reduction as a strategic response to AI-driven productivity gains rather than a cost-cutting exercise, arguing that a materially smaller team using intelligence tools can outperform, and that most companies will reach the same conclusion within a year.

NYSE-listed Block shares currently up 24.5% in after hours.

Company page: Block (XYZ)

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Carma delivers strong H1 growth as reconditioning ramp drives margin gains

[9:04 am] Australia's online used-car platform reported solid first-half results with revenue up 34% and gross margins doubling, while early H2 trading points to further acceleration. Not sure what to make of this result considering how badly the company has sold off in recent months (down 62% from $2.70 IPO price to $1.00).

• Revenue up 34% to $50.9m

• Total units delivered up 49% to 2,225 (1,379 retail, 846 wholesale)

• Gross profit up 102% to $4.7m, with gross profit per retail unit up 73% to $3,400

• Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($13.7m) vs. ($12.6m) a year ago

• Adjusted net loss after tax of ($17.3m) vs. ($15.9m) a year ago

• St Peters reconditioning facility throughput up 53% to 11.6 retail units per shift in 1H26, accelerating to 16.2 units per shift in February, with management flagging 20+ units per shift imminent

• Sell-to Carma sourcing (including trade-ins) now accounts for 85% of vehicles purchased, underpinning margin expansion and inventory supply; online inventory days down 36% to 30 days

• 2H26 trading update noted revenue from 1-Jan to 25-Feb up 76% year-on-year

• Four additional Sell-to Carma locations planned for 2H26 across NSW, taking total to 11

• Management reaffirmed on track to deliver FY26 Prospectus forecasts and an annualised exit revenue run rate in excess of $200m

Company page: Carma (CMA)

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AI's biggest bottleneck? Every major tech leader points to power

[8:58 am] From chip packaging to grid connections, the world's leading technology executives are converging on energy infrastructure as the critical constraint on AI's next leg of growth.

• Jensen Huang (Nvidia): power generation and grid capacity

• Lip-Bu Tan (Intel): memory shortage, specifically High Bandwidth Memory

• Lisa Su (AMD): scaling massive data centres within existing power limits

• Elon Musk (Tesla): the electrical grid growing too slowly

• Satya Nadella (Microsoft): fully permitted buildings with power already connected

• Mark Zuckerberg (Meta): securing raw power before competitors do

• Andy Jassy (Amazon): decade-long wait times for grid connections

• Sundar Pichai (Alphabet): local building permits and a lack of electricians

• Michael Dell (Dell): customers lacking sufficient office power and liquid cooling

• Larry Ellison (Oracle): the need for gigawatt-scale power plants

• C.C. Wei (TSMC): sold-out machines for advanced chip packaging

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Wall Street debates AI capex sustainability

[8:56 am] Despite 73% revenue growth in 4Q26 and bullish guidance, Nvidia's stock dipped 5.4% in a classic "sell-the-news" move, sparking broader debate about the durability of hyperscaler AI spending.

• Morgan Stanley projects hyperscaler capex intensity could reach 45% of sales by 2028, with over $2 trillion in cumulative spend expected, a level set to surpass dot-com era investment. The concern is that spending is growing materially faster than revenue, making future earnings more sensitive to top-line growth.

• Goldman Sachs notes AI spending growth is expected to moderate to 62% in 2026 from 73% in 2025, though demand-supply imbalances and strong balance sheets could still drive estimate upgrades. Near-term data centre demand and memory constraints remain supportive, with attention shifting to 2027 as the potential capex peak.

• Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Nvidia as a top pick, citing massive revenue beats, strong forward growth, and the company being effectively sold out through 2026, with the stock seen as undervalued relative to its position as core AI infrastructure.

• GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson argues the post-result share price weakness is purely mechanical, driven by an options wall at $200 per share and brokers unwinding sold calls rather than any fundamental deterioration.

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S&P 500 continues to chop

[8:54 am] The S&P 500 has crossed its 50-day moving average 10 times in the past 50 days, according to TheMarketStats. Prior indecisive and choppy price action saw the S&P 500 higher 12 of 14 times, two months later.

Source: The Market Stats

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US-Iran nuclear talks yield mixed signals

[8:50 am] Negotiations in Geneva produced conflicting outcomes, with Oman's mediator citing meaningful progress while Trump's envoys left disappointed, as talks are set to resume in Vienna next week against a ticking deadline.

• The US is demanding dismantlement of Iran's three main nuclear sites and transfer of enriched uranium, conditions analysts view as highly unlikely to be accepted, with sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and regional militia support also unresolved

• Crude remains headline-driven with WTI near six-month highs

• Iran has reportedly accelerated tanker loadings ahead of potential disruption, while Saudi Arabia is said to be preparing to lift output to offset any supply shock.

• Prediction markets assign a low but non-trivial probability of an imminent US strike, with Polymarket pricing around 11% before end of February (down from 18% earlier this week) and around 55% by end of March

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Trump-Xi summit prospects dim

[8:48 am] Preparations for a potential end-of-month Trump-Xi summit have hit roadblocks, with reports pointing to poor coordination, a compressed timeline, and misaligned strategic goals, raising the risk the meeting delivers optics over substance.

• Broader backdrop remains tense after the USTR has pledged to maintain high tariffs on China, Beijing has threatened "all necessary measures" in response to any new levies, and the US continues to face critical mineral shortages affecting its aerospace and chip industries.

• An earlier SCMP report had flagged that the two sides were likely to extend the trade truce for up to one year at the summit, while White House confirmation of the meeting had fuelled speculation around a broader "grand bargain" trade deal aimed at easing affordability pressures.

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S&P 500 Q4 earnings season wraps up strongly

[8:46 am] With nearly 95% of S&P 500 companies having reported, blended earnings growth for Q4 now stands at 14.2%, well above 8.3% consensus and ahead of the 13.5% recorded in Q3. Highlights include:

• A fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth

• The best revenue growth in three years

• Elevated beat rates

• Steady 2026 earnings growth expectations

• Strong AI capex cycle and rising AI adoption

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Nvidia beats big, guides higher vs. Salesforce mixed on AI transition

[8:42 am] Nvidia delivered a standout quarter while Salesforce faced a more divided market reaction, with AI monetisation at different stages for each company.

Nvidia:

• Q4 data centre revenue grew 75% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, with Q4 group revenue beating consensus by ~$2bn

• Q1 guidance came in ~$6bn ahead of consensus, implying ~$10bn sequential growth and 77% year-on-year expansion

• Gross margin guided at ~75%, with management expecting to sustain mid-70s% throughout the year despite higher memory costs

• Blackwell adoption and networking strength flagged as key positives, with Vera Rubin on track for second-half production and upside to prior $500bn+ revenue guidance for Blackwell and Rubin combined

• Notably, no China contribution is baked into guidance, and management provided visibility into 2027, adding to the bullish read

Salesforc:

• Q4 results broadly in line, though initial FY27 revenue guidance came in light, keeping pressure on a stock already down ~28% year-to-date

• Core organic segments including Marketing, Commerce and Tableau showed softer performance, with Agentforce revenue contribution still limited

• Agentforce ARR grew ~170% year-on-year to $800m, with deal volumes up 50% quarter-on-quarter to 29,000, pointing to strong pipeline build

• Management expressed confidence in organic revenue reacceleration in the second half of FY27, supported by accelerating net new annualised order value trends

• Share buyback lifted to $50bn, equivalent to roughly 30% of current market capitalisation, offering a meaningful capital return story while investors wait for growth to inflect

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 9 pts (+0.09%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with the S&P 500 (-0.54%) and Nasdaq (-1.18%) lower, while the Dow (+0.03%) and Russell 2000 (+0.52%) eked out some gains

• Nvidia dipped 5.4% despite reporting stronger-than-expected 4Q26 earnings and a guidance beat

• Nvidia weakness weighed on AI and semiconductor-related stocks

• Software continues to bounce as the "long semis and short software" trade begins to unravel

• US 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls below 6% for the first time since 2022 amid a sustained decline in Treasury yields

• Lots of rare earth headlines floating around semis, aerospace and chip sectors struggling for supply