ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 24th April

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, April 24. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 on a four-day losing streak, down ~2% for the week

[1:59 pm] A downbeat way to finish the week, with the ASX 200 currently down 0.52% and down 2.2% for the week. Breadth was fairly weak today, with 130 constituents (65%) lower and only Utilities, Energy and Staples trading higher.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

The index is now on a four-day losing streak and ~0.35% away from the key 200-day moving average. We've seen some fairly hard hitting announcements this week, spanning Cochlear's sharp FY26 downgrade, mixed mining quarterlies and continued provision hikes from banks (JDO today) to manage ongoing risks with fuel-sensitive sectors and broader economic deterioration. The Aussie 10-year has also edged back above 5.0% from 4.91% on Monday.

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Overall, it's a challenging and volatile market backdrop, where the lack of US-Iran de-escalation and high oil prices is weighing on stocks. Recent S&P PMI data from Australia, Japan, the US and Eurozone all point to a resilient macro backdrop, but a notable spike in costs. That's all for this week. Have a good weekend, or long weekend for those in ACT, NSW and WA.

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UBS on Newmont Q1: Higher confidence on costs and buybacks

[12:48 pm] UBS flagged Newmont's Q1 as another material beat with no cost blowout, guidance intact and an accelerated capital returns framework making it the most shareholder-friendly miner in the sector.

• EBITDA beat consensus by 23%, driven by higher gold production and materially lower unit costs on strong silver by-product revenues; adjusted EPS came in 33% ahead of consensus

• Free cash flow materially stronger on the EBITDA beat, lower capex and limited working capital build, lifting Newmont to $3.2bn net cash, above the top of its target range

• FY26 production guidance reiterated at ~5.3m ounces with a 48:52 H1/H2 split, implying lower Q2 output on Cadia earthquake impacts and grades at Yanacocha, Peñasquito and Ahafo South

• New capital allocation framework anchored by a $1bn net cash target (+/- $2bn range) with 100% of FCF returned above the top of the range, which Morgan Stanley views as the optimal distribution policy for the mining sector

• Buyback authorisation doubled to $6bn, with $2.4bn executed YTD and total cash returns of $2.7bn

UBS is currently Buy rated on Newmont, with a $195 target price.

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Morgan Stanley flags Australian housing downside as headwinds build

[12:45 pm] Morgan Stanley has published a cautious outlook on the Australian housing market, arguing that tighter policy, slower growth and potential tax changes in the May Federal Budget point to further price declines from here.

• Morgan Stanley recently downgraded 2026 Australian GDP growth to 1.2% YoY, a sharp deceleration from 2.6% in 2025, citing tighter policy and the global fuel supply shock

• Sequential house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne has turned negative, surveyed price expectations fell sharply in March, and auction clearance rates have dropped to levels historically consistent with national price declines in the coming months

• Federal Budget on 12 May is flagged as a key swing factor, with media reports pointing to potential changes to the Capital Gains Tax Discount and possible capping of Negative Gearing

• National house prices fell 10% into the 2019 election when a similar tax package was proposed, with investor activity having rebuilt to comparable levels over recent years

• RBA is likely to welcome housing weakness as evidence that monetary tightening is working, with financial stability risks viewed as benign: an 18% house price fall would only put ~1.8% of aggregate loans into negative equity, in line with pre-Covid levels

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Gold stocks mostly lower

[11:45 am] The All Ords Gold Index is down 1.3%, likely to record a fourth straight day of declines. Over the same time period, gold prices have dropped 2.6% to US$4,692/oz.

Newmont has bucked the trend today, off the back of a strong quarterly update, though most other names are down 2-3%.

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FMG, IGO, Judo and PLS on the move

[11:02 am] Lots of quarterly results today, here's how a few key names are moving:

• PLS (+3.4%): Continues to flex its operational excellence, record Q3 shipments of 232.4dmt, revenue up 52% on higher lithium prices, Q3 costs did miss expectations, though all FY26 metrics reaffirmed

• Judo (-0.7%): Dipped as much as 5.0% early, now down just 0.5%. FY26 PBT reaffirmed but guided to the lower end of $180-190m. Q3 NIM of 3.15% up vs. 3.03% in 1H26 (contrary to some NIM softness from BOQ's 1H26 result earlier this week). Cost of risk guidance increased to 70-75 bps of average GLA vs. prior 60-65 bps. JDO had sold off ~8% in the four sessions prior to today's result.

• Fortescue (-2.9%): Opened flat and trended lower. The Q3 production was relatively in-line and cost performance was strong, though Iron Bridge guidance was downgrade due to cyclone disruptions, substantial additional green energy capex as a potential headwind

• IGO (-11.5%): Q3 Greenbushes spodumene production was ~14% below ests, FY26 Greenbushes guidance cut by 11% vs. prior guidance. Not a good look. Stock gapped down 9.8%, nothing too wild intraday.

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GenusPlus awarded $110m Koolunga BESS contract

[10:54 am] GenusPlus Group has secured a $110 million energy and installation contract for the 200MW/800MWh Koolunga Battery Energy Storage System in South Australia.

• Contract awarded for engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of the Balance of Plant scope and BESS installation, on a lump sum and turn-key basis

• Combined contract values of approximately $110m, with works commencing shortly and estimated completion by September 2027

• KLG Project is a 200MW/800MWh BESS located ~6km south-east of Koolunga in South Australia, connecting to the grid via ~1.2km of HV cable to the 275kV Brinkworth Substation

• Management flagged the win as a "milestone project" demonstrating market confidence in Genus's capability to deliver projects of this scale and complexity

Company page: GenusPlus Group (GNP)

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Analysts' take on Santos

[10:34 am] Santos delivered a mixed Q1 result on Thursday, with production missing consensus due to commissioning delays at Barossa and Pikka, though sales revenue held in line supported by spot LNG cargo purchases

Analysts viewed the operational shortfalls as typical start-up challenges rather than structural issues, with both projects expected to reach full production by year end and deliver meaningful free cash flow leverage in the second half.

• UBS retained Buy, raised target from $8.70 to $8.80. The Barossa fouling issue is expected to resolve without lasting impact, with spot LNG cargoes managing near-term obligations and elevated oil and LNG prices underpinning strong free cash flow through the remainder of the year.

• RBC retained Outperform, target unchanged at $8.50. Barossa is expected to restart imminently and ramp to nameplate by Q4, with Pikka targeting 80,000 bbl/day gross by Q3; the strategic review is anticipated to highlight growth from LNG assets and Alaskan oil expansion.

• Jarden retained Overweight, lowered target from $8.85 to $8.80. Commissioning challenges at both projects are expected to clear within six months, positioning Santos for a meaningful shift into cash flow generation, though the lack of revised production guidance despite apparent delays was flagged as a concern.

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Analysts' take on South32

[10:33 am] South32 delivered a mixed March quarter on Thursday, with production missing expectations largely due to weather disruptions, though FY guidance was broadly maintained. Despite the operational softness, cash generation outperformed expectations, supported by record Sierra Gorda distributions and strong aluminium pricing.

• UBS retained Buy, target unchanged at $5.20. Cash generation beat expectations despite the production miss, with Sierra Gorda distributions and commodity tailwinds underpinning resilience; near-term focus shifts to cost stabilisation.

• RBC retained Outperform, target unchanged at $4.70. Weather impacts are masking broader portfolio-wide cost inflation, with Hermosa's capex review and Cannington grade variability adding to near-term earnings headwinds.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, raised target from $5.00 to $5.10. Sierra Gorda's grinding line expansion and Hermosa permitting progress are de-risking the growth outlook, with working capital normalisation expected to support cash conversion in the June quarter and earnings inflection anticipated as the capex cycle moderates into FY27.

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:22 am] Suncorp is rallying off the back of a new 5-year reinsurance arrangement and FY26 guidance upgrade, while PLS Group and Newmont higher on solid quarterly updates.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:22 am] IGO sharply lower reporting a Q3 production miss and full-year downgrade, while tech names like Life360, Xero and Wisetech broadly lower after software stocks sold off on Wall Street overnight.

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ASX 200 lower, already bouncing off worst levels

[10:17 am] ASX 200 down just 0.08%, already bouncing off session lows of -0.38%. A rather 'no surprises' session, with sectors moving broadly in-line with Wall Street, where defensives like Utilities, Staples and Industrials outperformed. Tech stocks are trading sharply lower, again, relatively in-line renewed software weakness overnight (IGV down 5.8%).

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Quick question for our readers

[10:14 am] We’re looking to better understand the investors who read the Market Index Live Blog each day. To do that, we’ll be running a quick daily poll – just one simple question – to learn more about how you invest, trade, and navigate the markets.

It’ll take a few seconds to answer, and over time it helps us shape the content and coverage that matters most to you.

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IGO Q3 Greenbushes misses as production and guidance downgraded

[9:58 am] IGO delivered a disappointing Q3 at Greenbushes with production, sales and EBITDA all missing market expectations, triggering a material downgrade to FY26 production, cost and capex guidance despite a near-doubling of the realised lithium price.

• Greenbushes spodumene production of 351kt vs. 407kt ests (14% miss), broadly flat QoQ

• Greenbushes spodumene sales of 349kt vs. 413kt ests (15% miss), with one shipment slipping to April due to port congestion

• Greenbushes realised price of US$1,668/t vs. $1,665/t ests (in line), up nearly 100% on a strong lithium market

• Underlying EBITDA of $118.9m vs. $161.0m ests (26% miss)

• Kwinana lithium hydroxide production of 3,047t vs. 2,450t ests (24% beat), at 51% of nameplate capacity

• Net cash increased to $327m at 31 March

• FY26 Greenbushes guidance downgraded: spodumene production cut to 1,375-1,425kt from 1,500-1,650kt, an 11% cut at the midpoint

• FY26 Greenbushes unit cash cost lifted to $380-420/t from $310-360/t, a 19% increase at the midpoint

• FY26 Greenbushes capex cut to $400-450m from $575-675m a 32% reduction at the midpoint

• Management flagged Greenbushes issues as "systemic" across safety, feed grade, recoveries, maintenance execution and plant reliability, with a Strategic Options Review underway though improvements unlikely to be linear

Company page: IGO Limited (IGO)

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St. Barbara approves FID for Touquoy Restart

[9:57 am] St. Barbara has given the green light to restart its Touquoy gold operation in Nova Scotia, following recent environmental approvals and the signing of two major local support contracts.

• Final Investment Decision approved for the Touquoy Restart following receipt of amended Industrial Approval permit conditions from the Nova Scotia Department of Environment and Climate Change earlier this month

• Subsidiaries have signed two major support services contracts with rural Nova Scotian companies Alva Construction and MacGregor's Industrial for the reopening and processing period

• Touquoy anticipated to recommence ore processing by the end of calendar year 2026, involving the processing of stockpiled ore

For context, St Barbara owns four projects in Canada (Beaver Dam, Cochrane Hill, Touquoy and 15-Mile). The Touquoy mine ceased production in 2023 amid permitting issues, the approved restart mainly looks at processing stockpiles. A 10-Dec-25 study noted pre-tax NPV of A$65.8 million and an estimated 564% IRR (using a gold price of US$3,000/oz).

Company page: St. Barbara (SBM)

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Judo Capital Q3 flags PBT at lower end, lifts credit risk guidance

[9:45 am] Judo Capital delivered a solid Q3 with margins tracking well and lending growth intact, though management has lifted cost of risk guidance and flagged PBT at the lower end of the range on a prudent provision top-up.

• FY26 PBT reaffirmed at $180-190m vs. $189.4m ests, but guided to the lower end (consensus sits at ~$189.4m, which implies a ~5% miss)

• Q3 NIM of 3.15%, up from 3.03% in 1H26 and in line with 2H26 guidance

• Lending blended margins robust at 4.2%, with new lending margins also at 4.2%

• Lending pipeline (applications, approved and accepted) has grown to $2.2bn with an average margin of 4.3% over 1-month BBSW

• 90-day past due and impaired loans of 2.65% of GLA vs. 2.66% in Dec-25

• Cost of risk guidance lifted to 70-75bps of average GLA from 60-65bps, driven by an economic overlay top-up targeting sectors sensitive to fuel prices and broader deterioration (agriculture, construction, retail trade, manufacturing, transport)

• Collective provisions coverage of 94bps of GLA at 31 March, up 5bps vs. Dec-25

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed on NIM (upper end of 3.00-3.10%), GLA ($14.4-14.7bn) and cost-to-income (<50%)

We've now seen quite a few banks (Westpac and NAB the other day) setting aside more funds to cover potential losses, particuarly from sectors sensitive to rising energy prices. Overall, a net negative, but even at the lower end of the $180-190 million profit before tax guidance, this implies ~43% year-on-year growth vs. FY25.

Company page: Judo Capital (JDO)

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Fortescue Q3 beats on shipments and costs, Iron Bridge guidance trimmed

[9:39 am] Fortescue delivered a strong Q3 with total iron ore shipments and C1 costs both beating market expectations, though Iron Bridge FY26 guidance has been cut on cyclone-related disruptions.

• Total iron ore shipments up 5% year-on-year to 48.4Mt vs. 47.88Mt ests (1% beat),

• Ore mined up 7% to 59.5Mwmt vs. 61.95Mt ests (4% miss)

• Hematite C1 cost up 4% to US$18.29/wmt vs. $19.41/wmt ests (6% beat)

• Hematite realised price of US$92/dmt, representing 89% of the average Platts 61% CFR Index

• Iron Bridge Concentrate realised price of US$122/dmt, though shipments of 2.0Mt were hit by Tropical Cyclones Mitchell and Narelle

• Cash balance of $4.2bn and net debt of $1.6bn at 31 March, after a $1.3bn interim dividend and $915m of capex in the quarter

• FY26 total shipments guidance unchanged at 195-205Mt, but Iron Bridge cut to 9-10Mt (100% basis) from 10-12Mt on weather impacts

• Green Metal Project at Christmas Creek on track for first hot metal in the June quarter, with a US$680m investment approved to develop 200MW of firmed green energy in the Pilbara for industrial and data centre demand

Company page: Fortescue (FMG)

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Meeka Metals to acquire Mt Holland tenements for $10m cash plus scrip

[9:36 am] Meeka Metals is acquiring a package of mining tenements surrounding Mt Holland in WA for $10 million cash and 117.8 million MEK shares.

• Assumption of a third-party royalty of $25/oz of gold produced and sold

• Cash portion funded by existing cash ($50.1m at 31 March 2026) and operating cashflows, with completion expected within ~2 weeks

• Tenements cover ~71km2 and ~24km of north-south striking banded iron formation units, with the surrounding area historically producing ~1.2Moz at 5.12g/t gold from the Bounty gold mine prior to 2001 when operations ceased at ~$500/oz gold prices

• Little exploration in the past ~15 years, with an initial 20,000m systematic drilling program planned post-completion

Company page: Meeka Metals (MEK)

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Newmont Q1 earnings call highlights

[9:32 am] Newmont's Q1 earnings call pointed to Q2 as the weakest production quarter of the year before a second half grade-driven recovery.

• Q2 2026 expected to be the lowest production quarter with AISC notably higher on increased sustaining capital and lower silver output, before second half strength as grades improve and Cadia returns to normal levels from Q3

• FY26 outlook unchanged: 5.3m gold ounces, $1.4bn sustaining capital (H2-weighted), $1.1bn in quarterly dividends and $6bn share repurchase program to be executed over the next 12 months

• $25/oz cost headwind from Ghana's Sliding Scale royalty to be offset through cost discipline and productivity initiatives, with no change to company-specific 2026 cost guidance and no material supply chain shortages identified

• Post-2026 production growth targeted toward 6m ounces driven by Ahafo North ramp-up, higher grades at Boddington and Cadia, plus additional output from Yanacocha and Cerro, with multi-year guidance potentially reinstated later in 2026

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PLS Group: Thinking out loud

[9:31 am] Just some random ramblings here. PLS has rallied almost 400% from June 2025 and trading ~10% above its August 2023 peak.

PLS Group price chart (Source: TradingView)

But here's how today's March quarter result stacks up against four years ago. PLS produces far more lithium at lower costs, but average realised lithium prices are still down 61%. While PLS is obviously massively leveraged to lithium, operational excellence has arguably generated a lot of alpha along the way.

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PLS Group: Q3 production beats on record quarter, guidance reaffirmed

[9:18 am] I don't think I've ever seen an operational misstep from PLS Group, with today's March quarter result highlighting record production and a massive jump in revenue, off the back of higher lithium prices. Costs for the quarter spiked above market expectations, though management reaffirmed FY26 guidance across all key metrics.

Below figures represent % changes compared to the December quarter.

• Spodumene production up 12% to 232.4kdmt vs. 218.4kdmt ests (6% beat)

• Spodumene shipments of 195.7kdmt vs. 202.3kdmt ests (3% miss)

• Revenue up 52% to $567m vs. $577m ests (2% miss)

• Realised price up 61% US$1,867/dmt

• Unit operating cost FOB down 11% to $520/dmt vs. $416/dmt ests (25% miss)

• Cash balance up 52% to $1.46bn vs. $1.23bn ests (18% beat)

• Cash margin from operations up 178% to $461m on stronger pricing and lower unit costs

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed across all metrics

• Post-quarter balance sheet strengthened via a $US600m senior unsecured notes issuance

Company page: Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

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Private equity considers Regis Healthcare takeover

[9:07 am] Regis Healthcare has rallied 22.9% over the last three sessions despite no market-sensitive announcements or sector news to explain the move.

An article in The Australian this morning might explain why: market sources say that improving sector economics combined with a depressed share price have created an opening for private equity.

Source: The Australian

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European Lithium and Critical Metals Corp tipped for merger

[9:03 am] The AFR flagged informal merger discussions between ASX-listed European Lithium and its NASDAQ-listed offshoot Critical Metals Corp, in a deal that would consolidate the pair's shared exposure to the Wolfsberg lithium and Tanbreez rare earths projects.

The article was published at 3:07 pm on Thursday. European Lithium shares were trading ~4% higher around 3:00 pm, surged as much as 22.5% by 3:22 pm and closed the session 16% higher to 28.5 cents.

• European Lithium has a $420m market cap and $356m in cash after a $45m sell-down of Critical Metals Corp shares in February, positioning it as a cash-rich partner

• Critical Metals Corp has a US$1.5bn market cap and is said to have aspirations to merge with European Lithium, giving it access to the cash needed to develop its projects

• Critical Metals Corp owns 92.5% of the Tanbreez Greenland Rare Earth Mine with European Lithium holding the remaining 7.5%, and the pair share the Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria which was carved out into Critical Metals via a 2024 SPAC merger

• Street Talk emphasises no binding deal or firm offer is on the table, with discussions informal and running for several months

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Iress guides FY26 revenue to bottom of range on macro caution

[9:01 am] Iress has flagged FY26 revenue will land towards the bottom of its $520-528 million range, citing geopolitical and macro headwinds, though Q1 trading was in line and the Cash EBITDA exit run rate target remains intact.

• FY26 revenue guided towards the bottom of the $520-528m range vs. $522m ests

• Q1 trading performance was solid and in line with guidance, underpinned by predictable, recurring revenue

• Reiterated confidence in delivering a 25% Cash EBITDA exit run rate by Q4 FY26

• Softer revenue outlook pinned on recent geopolitical developments and their potential macroeconomic impact rather than any underlying business weakness

Company page: Iress (IRE)

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Newmont Q1 delivers record free cash flow on surging gold price

[9:00 am] Newmont posted a strong Q1 beat driven by a record realised gold price, materially lower unit costs and record free cash flow, with the company reiterating FY26 guidance and expanding shareholder returns via a fresh $6bn buyback.

• Revenue of $7.31bn vs. $6.57bn ests (11% beat)

• Adjusted EPS of $2.90 vs. $2.18 ests (33% beat)

• Net income of $3.3bn, up from $1.3bn in the prior quarter, with record free cash flow of $3.1bn (up 12% QoQ)

• Attributable gold production down 10% QoQ to 1.3Moz on Boddington bushfire impacts, lower Tanami grades and rainfall, plus lower grade and maintenance at Lihir and Cerro

• Copper production up 3% QoQ to 30kt, silver up 29% to 9m ounces, lead up 17% to 27kt and zinc up 35% to 62kt on higher co-product grades at Peñasquito

• Average realised gold price of US$4,900/oz, up US$684/oz QoQ, with gold by-product AISC down 21% QoQ to US$1,029/oz on favourable co-product volumes and pricing plus lower sustaining capex

• Dividend of 26 US cents declared, with US$2.7bn returned to shareholders since the last earnings call and the Board authorising an additional US$6.0bn buyback on top of US$6.0bn already executed

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed: ~5.3m attributable gold ounces, AISC of $1,680/oz, sustaining capex ~$1.95bn and development capex ~$1.4bn, with sustaining capex expected to ramp through the year

Company page: Newmont (NEM)

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China's oil stockpile now dwarfs the West's ahead of Iran war

[8:54 am] New EIA data reveals China entered the Iran conflict with a strategic oil buffer larger than the entire IEA membership combined, underlining Beijing's structural energy advantage as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

• China ended 2025 with ~1.4bn barrels of strategic oil reserves, vs. 1.2bn barrels across the 32 IEA member nations combined (which includes 413m barrels in the US)

• China added an average of 1.1m barrels per day to strategic inventories in 2025 and has reportedly continued building in 2026 ahead of the Iran conflict, while the US made only limited deposits in 2024 and 2025 following heavy Ukraine war drawdowns

• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at ~405m barrels after selling over 8m barrels in the first half of April, with Trump planning to release a further 172m barrels to combat Iran war price pressures

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Big tech and consulting turn to cuts as AI spend and cost pressures bite

[8:51 am] A wave of workforce reductions across Meta, Microsoft and KPMG signals corporates are reshaping cost bases to fund AI investment or address structural overcapacity, with implications for margin trajectories across tech and professional services.

• Meta cutting 10% of workforce or roughly 8,000 employees on 20 May, and closing 6,000 open roles, explicitly framed as offsetting record AI capex and multibillion-dollar partner deals

• Microsoft offering voluntary buyouts to ~7% of US employees, a first in its 51-year history, targeting senior director level

• Microsoft also removing the link between stock and cash bonuses for annual rewards and simplifying manager pay options from nine to five

• KPMG cutting ~10% of its US audit partners, affecting several dozen from a base of ~1,400 partners and managing directors in audit and assurance

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Eurozone flash PMI slips below 50 as services tank

[8:47 am] Eurozone composite PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in 16 months, with a sharp services downturn offsetting a surprise manufacturing pickup that looks inventory-driven rather than demand-led.

• Composite PMI of 48.6, below the 50 boom-or-bust level for the first time in 16 months

• Services PMI of 47.4, a 62-month low

• Manufacturing PMI of 52.2, ahead of consensus with new orders rising at the fastest pace in four years, though the report flags this is likely supported by inventory building amid Middle East supply disruptions rather than genuine demand.

• Input costs rose at the fastest pace since 2022 on the energy shock and supply disruptions, pushing output price inflation to a 37-month high despite the growth slowdown.

Source: ING

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US flash PMI beats as manufacturing surges to 4-year high

[8:47 am] US business activity picked up in April with the Composite PMI beating expectations, though the report carries stagflationary undertones as input costs and selling prices accelerated sharply.

• Composite PMI of 52.0 vs. 50.6 ests, a 3-month high

• Manufacturing PMI of 54.0 vs. 52.9 ests, a 47-month high

• Services PMI of 51.3 vs. 51.0 ests, a 2-month high

• Manufacturing output surged on the strongest new orders since May-22, though services demand weakened and overall employment was flat (worst 2-month stretch since late 2024) with manufacturing jobs declining.

• War and tariffs drove supply delays to their longest since Aug-22, lifting input costs to an 11-month high and pushing selling prices to their fastest pace since Jul-22, extending the stagflationary signal from March's flash data.

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Iranian negotiator resigns amid Revolutionary Guard pressure

[8:45 am] Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has reportedly stepped down from leading US negotiations, signalling a hardline shift in Tehran that threatens the fragile path to de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

• N12 reports Ghalibaf resigned from the negotiating team after interference from Revolutionary Guard generals, including the blocking of a Qatari proposal to allow 20 Iranian vessels through the Strait in exchange for 20 Arab Gulf ships.

• NY Times reports Revolutionary Guard officials and allies are now the key decision makers, with Supreme Leader Khamenei wielding much less direct authority, raising the risk that diplomacy-minded officials get sidelined.

• Trump has ordered the US Navy to "shoot and kill any boat" laying mines in the Strait and tripled minesweeping efforts, with US Central Command having turned around 31 ships under the retaliatory blockade on Iranian ports.

• Tanker traffic remains well below prewar levels through the Strait, with only eight ships transiting on Wednesday vs. over 100 per day in peacetime

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US indices lower, off worst levels

[8:42 am] A relatively soft overnight session, with the Nasdaq (-0.89%), S&P 500 (-0.41%), Russell 2000 (-0.37%) and Dow (-0.36%) broadly lower, but off worst levels.

The S&P 500 dipped as much as 1.28% in early trade as software stocks plunged and oil surged on renewed Iran war concerns. There was a clear defensive pivot, with sectors like Utilities (+2.8%), Industrials (+1.7%), Staples (+1.7%) and Real Estate (+1.2%) trading broadly higher. This buoyed the Equal-weight S&P 500, which finished flat.

S&P 500 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 4 pts (-0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• US indices lower but off worst levels, with the S&P 500 (-0.41%) bouncing off session lows of -1.28%

• A strong session for defensives, with sectors like Utilities, Industrials, Staples and Real Estate all up at least 1%

• Lots of Iran-related headline noise, spanning Iran leadership uncertainty, continued Trump threats and concerns of more Iranian mines in the strait

• Brent up 4.4% to US$106.02 to the highest since 7 Apr, prices have now rallied 13% in the last three sessions