ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 22nd August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 22. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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That's a wrap

[2:40 pm] Thanks for tuning in! It's been a chockas week with some absolutely insane results-related moves. Hope I've managed to add some insight/perspective into key results before the market opens.

The S&P/ASX 200 is set to finish lower (-0.24%) but closed out the week up around 0.6%. Powell's Jackson Hole speeches have consistently served as important policy signaling events and a big driver of market volatility. There is a bit of angst as the market is all about rate cuts right now, with the Fed expected to cut twice by year end.

Interestingly, S&P Global's Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson wrote:

• "A strong flash PMI reading for August adds to signs that US business have enjoyed a strong third quarter so far .... companies across both manufacturing and services are reporting stronger demand conditions, but are struggling to meet sales growth, causing backlogs of work to rise at a pace not seen since the pandemic."

• "While this upturn in demand has fuelled a surge in hiring, it has also bolstered firms' pricing power. Companies have consequently passed tariff-related costs increases through to customers ..."

• "... the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes.”

Let's see how this all plays out.

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Small caps making moves

[1:05 pm] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers.

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Guzman Y Gomez obliterated on poor guidance

[12:25 pm] Guzman Y Gomez is trading around session lows, down 22% ($22.80), its FY25 result was solid but the guidance was ... abysmal.

• Revenue up 27.4% to $436.0m vs. $455.0m ests (2% miss)

• EBITDA up 45.3% to $65.1m vs. $63.8m ests (2% beat)

• NPAT up 150.4% to $14.5m vs. $13.5m ests (7.5% beat)

The main drag on the share price was the trading update for the first 7 weeks of FY26, with comp sales up 3.7% vs. market expectations of 7.6% and margin outlook of 5.9-6.3% for Australia vs. 6.3% consensus.

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Zip FY25 earnings call highlights

[12:06 pm] Zip just wrapped up its FY25 earnings call. Here are the key takeaways:

• US business expected to grow >35% in FY26 with 11% new customer growth and higher transaction frequency (~10.6x).

• FY26 margin guidance lifted to 16–19%, supported by Pay-in-2 engagement and stronger consumer/merchant channels.

• Longer-term strategy centred on non-TTV revenue streams, capital-light propositions, and automation/AI productivity gains.

• Dual listing process underway, pending board approval and SEC compliance (update due H1 FY26).

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Chart of the Day with Chris Conway

Zip-a-dee-doo-dah

[11:58 am] My oh my, what a wonderful day for ZIP. Off the back of some well-received results, the share price has powered more than 20% higher, busting through previous resistance at $3.50. All the bullish elements I typically like to see are now in place:

• The EMAs are in the right configuration, showing trend alignment across multiple timeframes

• We’ve had a breakout above resistance, on increased volume

• We see uptrend support, stemming from the rally that began in April

• The price action is now in clear air, challenging levels not seen since early 2022 (i.e. so long ago they are no longer relevant

Provided the price can hold and close above $3.50 today, ZIP will likely carry its momentum higher, beyond $4.

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Inghams obliterated

[11:17 am] Shares in the poultry farmer tanked as much as 22% in early trade after the company reported a soft FY25 result and poor FY26 guidance. Here are the key numbers from earlier:

• Revenue down 1.5% to $3.15bn vs. $3.19bn ests (1.3% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) flat at $236.4m vs. $242.1m ests (2.4% miss)

• Underlying NPAT (pre AASB 16) down 11.6% to $95.2m vs. $103.4m ests (7.9% miss)

• Full-year dividend down 5% to 19 cps vs. UBS ests of 20.4 cps (6.9% miss)

Looking ahead, Inghams guided to FY26 underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) of $215-230m and capex between $80-100m. UBS was expecting EBITDA of $258m.

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ASX 200 slips

[11:12 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading slightly lower, down 0.14%. Not a whole lot happening at the index level, which is understandable after Thursday's massive 1.1% rally. The market's probably a little nervous ahead of Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole gathering.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:31 am] Zip is ripping on a strong FY26 result, Codan is still running hot after soaring >10% on Thursday and James Hardie is bouncing after suffering a massive earnings-related selloff earlier this week.

Meanwhile, Guzman Y Gomez is being dumped on valuation concerns, Objective Corp is pulling back after a ~20% rally on Thursday.

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Zip FY25 results

[9:48 am] A solid result from Zip, mostly ahead of market expectations, with notable strength from the US market.

• Revenue up 23.5% to $1.08bn vs. $1.07bn ests (0.7% beat)

• EBTIDA up 116% to $170.3m vs. $160m ests (6.4% beat)

• NPAT up 1,110% to $79.9m vs. $71.8m ests (11.3% beat)

• EPS up 785.7% to 6.2 cents vs. 6.7 cents ests (7.5% miss)

• Interesting to see US active customers up 11% to 4.3m (vs. 4.2m ests) but Australian active customers down 6.8% to 2m (vs. 2.1m ests)

Zip is also considering a dual listing on the Nasdaq, given ~80% of its cash earnings come from the US as well as an increase in "US investor interest with offshore institutional investors currently comprising approximately 16% of Zip’s issued capital."

Zip guided to US total transaction volume growth of more than 35% for FY26 (vs. UBS ests of just 25%).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Zip (ZIP)

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Small-to-mid cap earnings of interest

[9:44 am] A few FY25 earnings from the smaller end of town:

• CogState (CGS): Revenue up 22% to $53.1m, pre-tax income up 95% to $13.9m, final dividend of 2 cps. Executed clinical trials sales contracts of $14.1m since 1-Jul vs. full-year FY25 of $41.3m, revenue growth expected to continue.

• Cost Entertainment (CEH): Ticket sales up 10.5% to the highest level since FY16, operating revenue up 10.8% to $96.4m, net loss of ~$100,000, noted strong start to FY26 trading with ticket sales up 66% vs. a year ago.

• Hipages (HPG): Big jump in FY25 NPAT to $2.4m (vs. ~$0.1m a year ago), revenue and EBITDA margins all within guidance. Job volumes of 1.4m vs. 1.3m a year ago. FY26 guidance includes revenue growth of 10-12% (vs. 9.0% ests) and free cash flow of $8-10m (vs. $7.8m ests).

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Inghams FY25 results: Broad miss

[9:30 am] A pretty ugly result from Inghams, with FY25 numbers broadly below market expectations and a weaker-than-expected FY26 guidance.

Key comment: "While lost Woolworths volumes in Australia were substantially replaced on a full-year basis, the financial results were impacted by a shift to a lower-margin mix, weaker wholesale pricing and softer overall retail demand, all of which contributed to a meaningful deterioration in 4Q25 earnings."

• Revenue down 1.5% to $3.15bn vs. $3.19bn ests (1.3% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) flat at $236.4m vs. $242.1m ests (2.4% miss)

• Underlying NPAT (pre AASB 16) down 11.6% to $95.2m vs. $103.4m ests (7.9% miss)

• Full-year dividend down 5% to 19 cps vs. UBS ests of 20.4 cps (6.9% miss)

Looking ahead, Inghams guided to FY26 underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) of $215-230m and capex between $80-100m. UBS was expecting EBITDA of $258m.

"Earnings are expected to be significantly weighted to the second half, reflecting both the impact of weaker 4Q25 trading conditions and the timing of benefits from the operational changes underway," noted the company.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Inghams (ING)

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Cuscal FY25 results

[9:25 am] Cuscal's FY25 result was broadly in-line with market expectations, an unsurprising outcome given its recent trading updates. The company also announced the acquisition of Indue, an end-to-end payments solutions company (often refered to as 'mini-Cuscal') for $75 million.

• Transaction volume growth of 8%

• Adjsuted net operating income up 6% to $290.4m

• Pro forma NPAT up 17% to $38.4m, NPAT margin up 120 bps to 13.2%

The Indue acquisition is expected to generate $15-20 million in annual run-rate cost synergies (fully realised by FY29), EPS accretion of over 25% and RoIC of over 20%.

Cuscal also guided to low double-digit NPAT growth and mid-to-high single digit transaction volume growth.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cuscal (CCL)

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GQG 1H25 results

[9:17 am] A relatively in-line set of numbers from GQG, though the result contained a line that noted "estimated FUM of approximately US$171.3bn as at 20 August 2025," vs. closing FUM of US$172.4bn at 30 June 2025.

• Closing FUM up 10.8% to $172.4bn vs. Macquarie ests of $172.4bn (in-line)

• Net revenue up 11% to $403.0m vs. $405.7m ests (-0.7% miss)

• Net operating income up 12.3% to $306.8m vs. $305.8m ests (0.3% beat)

• Interim dividend of 3.56 US cps

Also, for context, 'ests' refers to consensus (aggregates a handful of major broker estimates). If a specific broker est is used, I will mention who.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: GQG Partners (GQG)

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Regis Resources FY25 results

[9:10 am] Revenue and earnings a little soft vs. market expectations, with production approximately 20% lower than FY24 but within guidance range (220-240koz) and AISC up 19% to $2,775/oz.

• Revenue up 30% to $1.64bn vs. $1.65bn ests (-0.6% miss)

• Net profit after tax of $254.4m vs. $277.1m ests (-8.2% miss)

• Final dividend of 5 cps

• Cash and bullion of $517m at 30 June 2025

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Regis Resources (RRL)

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Hawkish Fedspeak weighs on rate cut bets

[9:01 am] Comments from several Fed policymakers leaned hawkish overnight, dragging September rate cut probabilities to 71%, down from 82% a day ago and 92% a week ago. Notably comments have come from:

• Fed Cleveland President Beth Hammack said if the rate decision was tomorrow, she wouldn't support lowering rates as inflation is too high and continues to trend upwards

• Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid in a CNBC interview expressed doubt on lowering rates as there's more work to do on inflation

• Atlanta's Bostic said one rate cut this year remains the base case as employment trajectory is troubling

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Broker upgrades, downgrades

[8:58 am] A few results-related broker notes of interest, notably downgrades for Brambles, Codan and Super Retail Group (all of which rallied more than 10% on better-than-expected FY25 numbers).

• Auckland International Airport downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to NZ$8.10 from NZ$8.90 (CITI)

• Brambles downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $24.50 from $20.90 (JPM)

• Brambles downgraded to Neutral from Outperform but target up to $25.20 from $24.60 (MQG)

• Codan downgraded to Neutral from Outperform but target up to $27.15 from $17.00 (MQG)

• Goodman Group downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $36.63 from $36.00 (UBS)

• Pepper Money upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $2.40 from $1.75 (CITI)

• Peter Warren Automotive upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $2.30 from $1.40 (MS)

• Super Retail Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $18.00 from $16.70 (JPM)

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Walmart reports rare earnings miss, tanks the Staples sector

[8:56 am] The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector fell an outsized 1.18% overnight, weighed by Walmart's 4.4% selloff.

While the stock sold off, it wasn't all that bad given elevated expectations heading into the result (shares up 13.5% year-to-date vs. S&P 500 up 8.7%). In addition, the earnings miss was largely attributed to higher insurance claims, while the underlying result had a number of positive takeaways including:

• US comps grew +4.6% vs +4.0% consensus, with traffic trends remaining positive.

• eCommerce growth accelerated, while better gross margin reflected improved inventory management and sales mix.

• Ongoing price investment strategy continues to support market share gains and leverage to consumer trade-down behavior.

• Guidance constructive: Q3 outlook above consensus, FY sales growth guidance lifted by 75 bps to +3.75–4.75% cc, and FY EPS nudged higher by $0.02 on lighter FX headwinds.

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US and EU announce trade agreement framework

[8:48 am] The US and EU announced a framework agreement, easing trade tensions, though its implementation rests on EU legislative follow-through. The key highlights include:

• US to cut automotive tariffs from 27.5% to 15% once EU delivers lowering industrial tariffs and provide preferential market access for select US seafood and agricultural products

• US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, lumber and semiconductors capped at 15%.

• EU alcoholic products face a 15% tariff despite Brussels pushing for an exemption.

• US tariffs on steel, aluminum and related products remain at 50%, though US flagged potential reductions tied to supply chain cooperation.

• EU commits not to impose network usage fees, addressing US digital trade concerns.

• EU pledges new investment in energy, semiconductors and weapons manufacturing.

Source: White House

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Eurozone PMIs hit 15-month high, manufacturing breaks three-year slump

[8:43 am] The Eurozone Composite PMI increased to 51.1 in August from 50.9 in July, marking the fastest private sector growth in 15 months and topped analyst expectations of 50.6.

• Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, signaling the first expansion since June 2022, ending a three-year downturn despite new US tariffs.

• Germany’s factory sector showed signs of recovery, nearing the end of a three-year slump, though foreign orders declined.

• Foreign orders for Eurozone manufacturers fell for the second consecutive month, with Germany and France both experiencing declines, likely due to US trade policy uncertainties.

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US PMIs are booming

[8:40 am] A very strong US manufacturing and services PMI print overnight. The key highlights include:

• S&P Global flash August factory PMI surged to 53.3, a three-year high, signaling the fastest manufacturing expansion since May 2022, driven by robust demand.

• Composite PMI, which includes manufacturing and services, reached its highest level in 2025, reflecting broad-based business activity growth.

• Companies reported stronger demand across manufacturing and services, with factory output and order backlogs hitting mid-2022 highs, and new orders reaching a peak since February 2024.

• Manufacturers increased hiring at the fastest rate since March 2022 to meet rising demand, indicating confidence in sustained economic activity.

• Import duties fueled a rise in the composite sales price index to a three-year high, with service providers also charging higher prices, passing tariff-related costs to consumers.

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 12pts (-0.13%) after a historic move on Thursday, with the market rallying more than 1% to close above 9,000 for the first time on record. Major US benchmarks continued to pull back overnight, with the S&P 500 (-0.40%) down for a fifth straight session.

Another long list of reporters today, including:

• Larger Cap Earnings: AMA Group (AMA), GQG Partners (GQG), Guzman Y Gomez (GYG), Helia Group (HLI), Inghams (ING), Latitude Group (LFS), Regis Resources (RRL), Zip (ZIP)

• Small-to-Mid Cap Earnings: Accent Group (AX1), BCI Minerals (BCI), Cobram Estate Olives (CBO), Cuscal (CCL), Credit Clear (CCR), Coast Entertainment (CEH), Cogstate (CGS), Dug Technology (DUG), Hipages (HPG), Michael Hill International (MHJ), Monash IVF (MVF), Rural Funds (RFF)

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.