ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 16th May
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open sharply higher on Friday, extending its win streak to eight. Here are today's top stories.
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Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, May 16. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 locks in eight-day win streak
[4:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 finished 0.56% higher, down from session highs of 1.21%.
The market has now rallied for eight consecutive sessions and within 3% of its February 14 all-time high.
Breadth was positive, with 137 of S&P/ASX 200 constituents (68%) closing higher, largely driven by defensive sectors like Real Estate (+2.3%), Materials (+1.2%), Healthcare (+1.2%) and Industrials (1.0%).
Commonwealth Bank briefly crossed $170 for the first time on record, but finished the session slightly lower, down 0.05% to $169.66.
Stocks moving on unusual volume
[2:05 pm] These are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing unusual volume, as a % of their 20-day average volumes.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | R-Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ASX | Asx | -1.09% | $71.42 | 928% |
MSB | Mesoblast | -1.56% | $1.77 | 184% |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | -1.21% | $8.55 | 173% |
DBI | Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure | -2.07% | $4.03 | 155% |
CBA | Commonwealth Bank | -0.19% | $169.42 | 146% |
PDN | Paladin Energy | -7.88% | $5.91 | 143% |
CIP | Centuria Industrial | 1.66% | $3.06 | 133% |
DNL | Dyno Nobel | 0.93% | $2.73 | 126% |
XRO | Xero | 0.16% | $182.35 | 121% |
WES | Wesfarmers | -0.96% | $82.24 | 118% |
MTS | Metcash | 1.06% | $3.35 | 116% |
DXS | Dexus | -1.44% | $7.21 | 112% |
AFI | Australian Foundation Investment Company | 0.28% | $7.19 | 103% |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | -2.25% | $8.70 | 100% |
IFT | Infratil | 0.09% | $10.62 | 100% |
GPT gains on QuadReal JV
[12:30 pm] GPT trading 3.0% higher after announcing a new logistics joint venture with QuadReal Property Group this morning.
The Partnership will be seeded with approximately $460 million in logistics assets located in urban infill and middle-ring locations along Australia’s east coast, with plans to deploy an additional $500 million.
GPT will sell several balance sheet assets at book value to establish the Partnership, retaining a 20% co-investment interest. The transaction will generate net proceeds of about $410 million, which GPT will use to reduce gearing until reinvested. QuadReal will commit approximately $400 million for an 80% stake in the Partnership.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: GPT Group
Dusk Group smashed on margin weakness
[12:25 pm] Dusk Group is trading 20% lower to 92 cents after providing a weaker-than-expected FY25 gross profit margin guidance.
The FY25 earnings guidance read relatively strong at face value, notably:
Total sales to be approximately $137-139m vs. FY24: $126.7m (+8.9% at midpoint)
Underlying EBIT to be $7-8m vs. FY24: $6.2m (+21%)
However, the company said it expects gross profit % to be 50-100 bps lower than FY24 (64.3%). The midpoint of this range implies 63.5%, or a sharp deterioration compared to the 65.1% it reported at the 1H25 result.
The selloff has slashed the company's market cap to around $57 million (from $73 million). A value play could emerge given its inventory and net cash guidance of $15-17 million and $18-20 million respectively.
Top gainers and losers at noon
[12:10 pm] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks making the biggest gains and declines as at 12:10 pm.
Liontown is surging after a quiet open, now up 63% in the last eight sessions and trading at its highest level since November 2023.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
LTR | Liontown Resources | 6.96% | $0.85 |
PRU | Perseus Mining | 4.78% | $3.40 |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining | 4.76% | $0.99 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | 4.54% | $7.95 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | 4.35% | $77.98 |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | 4.35% | $3.84 |
RRL | Regis Resources | 4.09% | $4.46 |
NST | Northern Star Resources | 4.02% | $18.77 |
DGT | Digico Infrastructure Reit | 3.96% | $3.29 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | 3.95% | $7.76 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
PDN | Paladin Energy | -7.72% | $5.92 |
SNZ | Summerset Group | -4.85% | $10.40 |
BOE | Boss Energy Ltd | -4.49% | $3.83 |
MCY | Mercury NZ | -3.77% | $5.61 |
MSB | Mesoblast | -3.50% | $1.74 |
DXS | Dexus | -3.01% | $7.09 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | -2.13% | $8.71 |
AAI | Alcoa Corporation | -2.09% | $44.49 |
WTC | Wisetech Global | -1.94% | $101.76 |
ALL | Aristocrat Leisure | -1.61% | $62.24 |
ASX 200 pushes higher
[11:05 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is currently up 0.87%, down from session highs of 1.15%.
The market is on track to record an eight day win streak, which has pushed it to within 3% of its 14-Feb record high.
Sector performance is tracking broadly in-line with Wall Street, where defensive sectors outperformed. The Materials (+1.8%), Healthcare (+1.2%), Real Estate (+1.2%) and Industrial (+1.2%) sectors are currently leading the upside move.
Small caps making moves
[10:30 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers as at 10:30 am.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
APX | Appen | 19.11% | $1.47 |
MEK | Meeka Metals | 9.60% | $0.14 |
TBN | Tamboran Resources | 8.82% | $0.19 |
BTR | Brightstar Resources | 7.32% | $0.66 |
AMI | Aurelia Metals | 6.90% | $0.31 |
MEI | Meteoric Resources | 6.67% | $0.11 |
CHN | Chalice Mining | 6.34% | $1.09 |
EOS | Electro Optic Systems | 5.95% | $1.34 |
NVX | Novonix | 5.88% | $0.54 |
POL | Polymetals Resources | 5.73% | $0.83 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
EEG | Empire Energy | -21.95% | $0.16 |
HTA | Hutchison Telecommunications | -20.00% | $0.02 |
SKO | Serko | -8.28% | $2.88 |
ONE | Oneview Healthcare | -5.26% | $0.27 |
PLL | Piedmont Lithium | -4.55% | $0.11 |
BLX | Beacon Lighting | -4.28% | $3.13 |
BMN | Bannerman Energy | -3.95% | $2.80 |
AVH | Avita Medical | -3.32% | $2.04 |
GRX | Greenx Metals | -3.25% | $0.75 |
OMH | Om Holdings | -2.94% | $0.33 |
Top gainers and losers at open
[10:25 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers (all of which happen to be gold miners today) and losers as at 10:25 am.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
RRL | Regis Resources | 4.67% | $4.48 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | 4.67% | $7.96 |
PRU | Perseus Mining | 4.32% | $3.38 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | 4.03% | $77.74 |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | 3.73% | $2.50 |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining | 3.70% | $0.98 |
SPR | Spartan Resources | 3.69% | $1.97 |
WAF | West African Resources | 3.64% | $2.28 |
WGX | Westgold Resources . | 3.56% | $2.62 |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | 3.53% | $3.81 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
MSB | Mesoblast | -5.56% | $1.70 |
PDN | Paladin Energy | -4.99% | $6.09 |
SNZ | Summerset Group | -4.85% | $10.40 |
AAI | Alcoa Corporation | -2.27% | $44.41 |
BOE | Boss Energy | -2.00% | $3.93 |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | -1.50% | $8.52 |
LTR | Liontown Resources | -1.27% | $0.78 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | -1.00% | $26.28 |
NEC | Nine Entertainment | -0.85% | $1.51 |
DXS | Dexus | -0.82% | $7.25 |
Analysts bullish on Xero
[9:55 am] Analysts remain broadly bullish on Xero despite the company reporting slightly softer-than-expected earnings and an above consensus FY26 opex/revenue guidance. Here are some of the key takeaways two major brokers.
Goldman Sachs raised their target price for the stock to $205.00 from $201.00, with a Buy rating. A strong international performance supports increased US investment, with cost guidance expected to drive short-term earnings revisions. Brand spending will significantly increase from FY27 but medium-term revenue targets remain intact.
UBS raised their target price to $215.00 from $196.00, Buy rating retained. The investment bank sees the company as macro-resilient with strong pricing power and believes payments and Syft could boost medium-term ARPU, justifying a valuation premium, though it remains cautious on US readiness despite robust international growth.
Dusk FY25 guidance update
[9:45 am] Dusk Group provided a trading update in relation to its expected FY25 results. The key numbers include:
Total sales to be approximately $137-139m vs. FY24: $126.7m (+8.9% at midpoint)
Gross profit % expected to be 50-100 bps lower vs. FY24: 64.3%
Underlying EBIT to be $7-8m vs. FY24: $6.2m (+21%)
Net inventory of $15-17m
Net cash of $18-20m vs. FY24: $20.8m
Interestingly, Dusk has a market cap of around $73 million, which means almost half of its market cap is cash and inventory (based on the above guidance).
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Dusk Group (DSK)
Insider Transaction: Shaver Shop
[9:30 am] Shaver Shop's Chairman Brodie Arnold sold 300,000 shares on-market, representing 30% of its overall holdings and marking the first insider sale since November 2024. He beneficially owns 700,000 shares after the transaction.
Shaver Shop shares are up 2.6% year-to-date and up 19.5% in the past twelve months.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Shaver Shop (SSG)
Webjet rejects BGH Proposal
[9:20 am] Webjet’s Board unanimously rejected BGH’s proposal, stating it significantly undervalues the company and is not in shareholders’ best interests.
BGH’s Wednesday offer of 80 cents per share, a 10% discount to Webjet’s last closing price, was a lowball bid primarily signaling their intent to acquire a controlling interest. make it smoother
RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen noted that:
Offer values WJL's operating business at 10.8x FY25 NPAT.
Offer multiple is well below peers and the broader market.
ASX-listed peers like Corporate Travel, Flight Centre and Helloworld trade at 1-yr fwd PEs of 21, 13.4 and 9.8 respectively.
A valuation range of between $1.05 to $1.30 a share can be justified.
Shareholders likely to only entertain offers starting from $1.26 to $1.50 a share.
Appen AGM and guidance update
[9:15 am] Appen guided to FY25 revenue between $235-260 million vs. consensus expectations of $248 million. The midpoint of the company's guidance is in-line with what the market is expecting.
Management highlighted longer-term targets, including:
Three year revenue compound average growth rate of at least 20% (to FY27)
Circa 10% underlying EBITDA margin by FY27
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Appen (APX)
Monadelphous contract win
[9:10 am] Monadelphous Group awarded several new construction and maintenance contracts in resources, energy and infrastructure sectors valued at $180 million, including:
A 5-year master agreement for marine structural integrity works at Rio Tinto’s Cape Lambert Hub in Western Australia. Plus a 2-year call-off under the agreement for online and offline structural integrity works, set for completion in 1H27.
Won a contract to upgrade Fortescue’s Rolling Stock Maintenance Workshop at Thomas Marshalling Yard, Western Australia, to be completed in 2026.
Awarded a contract for multidisciplinary services for hook-up and commissioning of Woodside's Floating Production Unit in the Scarborough Gas Field, to start immediately.
Melchor, Monadelphous’ civil business, secured a construction contract with Mid West Ports for the Geraldton Port Maximisation Project, Western Australia, set for completion in 2H26.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)
Watch Thursday's big movers
[9:05 am] Keep an eye out for yesterday's big movers – will they continue to trend or experience a bounce/pullback?
Xero shares surged 4.7% after reporting a mixed first-half FY25 result. The bulls ultimately won after a wobbly open, driven by the company's solid subscriber growth, pricing power and low churn.
Operating revenue up 23% to $2.1bn, in-line with consensus
Subscribers up 6% to 4.41m vs. 4.47m consensus (1.3% miss)
Average revenue per user up 15% to $45.08 vs.$42.38 consensus (6.3% beat)
EBITDA up 28% to $638.46m vs. $668.3m consensus (4.4% miss)
Net profit after tax up 30% to $227.8m vs. $244.5m consensus (6.8% miss)
Graincorp rallied 8.8% to close at a six month high after a large east coast harvest bolstered first-half FY25 earnings.
Underlying EBITDA up 23% to $201.7m vs. $172m consensus (17.2% beat)
Underlying NPAT up 21% to $58.1m vs. $57.6m consensus (0.8% beat)
Interim dividend unch at 24 cents per share plus special dividend of 10 cents per share
Share buyback increased to a maximum $75m vs. prior $50m
FY25 underlying NPAT guidance of $65-95m vs. prior $60-95m (3.2% upgrade at the midpoint)
Treasury Wine shares tumbled 5.1% after its CEO Tim Ford unexpectedly stepped down after five years at the helm. Sam Fischer, current CEO of Lion (owned by Japan's Kirin Group), will succeed Mr Ford from 27 October, 2025. While the change was unexpected, the successor was broadly well-received, given Fischer’s deep experience in the alcohol industry and China market.
Still, Treasury Wine shares fell sharply and on the highest volume since 25 May, 2023.
Powell signals changes to Fed framework
[8:55 am] This morning, Fed Chair Powell delivered opening remarks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, part of the Federal Reserve’s review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication.
He noted that higher real rates may signal expectations of more volatile inflation and frequent supply shocks. Powell also discussed potential updates to the Fed’s long-run goals, particularly around shortfalls and average inflation targeting, and revisions to communication on forecasts and uncertainty.
He emphasised the enduring value of well-anchored inflation expectations and the Fed’s firm commitment to the 2% inflation target.
Broker Ratings
[8:45 am] Not a whole lot on our end. Will provide an update later.
Alcoa Corp downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target remains $31 (UBS)
Insurance Australia downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target up to $9.30 from $8.30 (UBS)
Treasury Wine Estates downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $8.90 from $11.70 (TWE)
Top stories from Livewire
“Gold is old”: Is Bitcoin about to eat gold’s lunch? | Gold has surged to record highs in 2025 as a safe haven asset amid economic uncertainty, but bitcoin, now surpassing US$100,000, is gaining traction as an alternative with greater upside potential due to its sensitivity to monetary policy changes and expanding liquidity. Institutional adoption, evidenced by significant inflows into bitcoin ETFs and corporate investments like Strategy's, underscores bitcoin's growing legitimacy and appeal as a dynamic, digital store of value compared to traditional gold.
Buy Hold Sell: 5 companies with powerful earnings potential | Will Granger and Marc Whittaker evaluate three ASX companies — Life360, ReadyTech Holdings, and Breville Group — for their earnings potential, with mixed ratings of sell, buy, and hold based on valuations and growth prospects. They also highlighted PWR Holdings and Tabcorp as their top picks, citing PWR's potential in aerospace and defense and Tabcorp's revitalised strategy under new leadership as key drivers for future earnings growth.
President Trump’s policies and the equity risk premium | Trump’s tariff policies caused sharp market volatility in 2025, with shares recovering most losses after tariffs dropped from 30% to 14%, easing recession fears. However, ongoing policy uncertainty and institutional attacks may curb productivity and inflate prices, potentially limiting medium-term investment returns despite pro-growth tax cuts and deregulation.
What's driving stocks?
[8:40 am] It was a relatively positive session on Wall Street, with plenty of moving pieces driving stocks (ex-tech) higher.
Investor sentiment is improving. AAII bullish sentiment ticked above 35% for the first time since January and up from a low of 20.9% two weeks ago
US producer prices cooled. US April PPI fell 0.5% month-on-month vs. consensus for a 0.2% decline, while core prices fell 0.4% vs. consensus for a 0.3% increase
Yields slightly ease from key levels. The US 10-year yield has made a worrisome resurgence, but it ticked 10 bps lower overnight to 4.43%
Defensive shift. The Nasdaq snapped a six day win streak overnight (but still up more than 6% week-to-date. But sectors including Utilities (+2.1%), Staples (+2.0%) and Real Estate (+1.8%) performed strongly
Good morning!
[8:35 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are pointing to 80 pt rise (+0.96%), which will extend our current win streak to eight.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
