Pinnacle earnings preview: Back to its long-run valuation with 50% upside on the table
Pinnacle shares are down 33% from August's peak. Tuesday's result comes down to whether net flows can beat expectations.
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Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Macquarie forecasts FY26 net profit of $157.6 million and a 60.3 cent dividend. Morgans is at $149.6 million and 61.1 cents, with $33 billion in full-year net flows.
- Third quarter net inflows of $9.4 billion were roughly 85% of what consensus had pencilled in for the entire second half, according to Macquarie.
- The selloff has eased Pinnacle's price-to-earnings to 29.5x, just below its 10-year average of 31.5x. Macquarie and Morgans target $25.11 and $23.94 vs. its last close of $16.50.
Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) is one of those stocks analysts have pinned bullish targets on for the past couple of years, backed by a solid track record and growth outlook, but the upside has never materialised.
Pinnacle is a global multi-affiliate investment management firm, with varying levels of interest in funds including Plato, Antipodes, Metrics, Hyperion, Coolabah and more.
The company will report its full-year result on Tuesday, 4 August.
The setup
Pinnacle shares have been trending lower since the August 2025 result, a blowout that will be hard to repeat. In FY25, aggregate affiliate funds under management soared 63% year-on-year to $179.4 billion, with inflows dominated by foundational mandates into newly established affiliate Life Cycle Investment Partners.
Pinnacle's first half FY26 was always going to be a tough comparison, with affiliate profit down 7% year-on-year to $69 million and performance fees down 63% to $13 million.
The stock is down 33% from the August 2025 peak, down 22% in the last twelve months and flat year-to-date.
Pinnacle Investment Management price chart (Source: TradingView)
The share price weakness has eased its price-to-earnings to 29.5x, down from the August 2025 peak of 37x and slightly below its 10-year average of 31.5x.
FY26 results: Key metrics
Here's what Macquarie and Morgans expect Pinnacle to deliver for FY26.
Metric | Macquarie | Morgans |
|---|---|---|
Performance fees | N/A | $33m (2H26) |
Net profit | $157.6 million | $149.6 million |
Dividend (full year) | 60.3 cps | 61.1 cps |
2H26 net flows | $14.2 billion | $15.2 billion |
Net fund flows (full year) | $31.4 billion | $33 billion |
Source: Macquarie Research, May 2026 | Morgans, July 2026
Macquarie is Outperform rated on the stock, with a $25.11 target, while Morgans has a Buy rating and $23.94 target. The stock is trading at $16.50 at the time of writing.
"Pinnacle has an attractive organic growth outlook with the potential to add accretive M&A. Outlook is supported by net flows, performance fees, and operating leverage," says Macquarie.
The bottom line
Weakness since the August 2025 result has re-set Pinnacle's valuation to its 10-year average. Earnings are still cycling exceptional performances from FY25 that won't be repeated for years to come, but key underlying metrics like funds under management continue to grow.
The latest 3Q26 update noted net inflows of $9.4 billion, which Macquarie notes is around 85% of the $11.1 billion consensus had pencilled in for the entire second half.
Pinnacle has been subject to its fair share of reporting season volatility, including:
5-Aug-25: Opened 2.6% higher ($21.88%) on the day and finished the session 4.7% higher ($22.32). The stock surged another 9.4% ($24.43) the next day
4-Feb-25: Opened 2.7% higher ($17.35), rallied as much as 9.4% intraday ($18.48%) before closing around open levels. The stock rallied 3.1% ($17.97%) the next day
Analysts love Pinnacle for good reason, given its strong growth and M&A track record. The company has gone from seven boutiques and roughly $23 billion FUM in December 2016 to 18 affiliates and $202.5 billion by December 2025. But whatever the valuation, a fund manager ultimately has to show net flows can meet or beat expectations. That's what we'll find out tomorrow.
