No growth but unwinding inventories pumps Kogan shares 30% higher
Kogan shares break a longstanding tradition of tumbling after an earnings update
Source: Unsplash
Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Kogan expects to deliver flat FY22 revenue growth, while earnings are poised to fall -69%
- Inventories have fallen substantially, from $227.9m at the end of FY21 to $161.m
- Kogan shares are still down -52% year-to-date and -83% away from all-time highs
Kogan (ASX:KGN) shares have snapped a longstanding tradition of freefalling after a business update, opening 7% higher as the market opened.
A frenzy of buying activity has pushed the stock 37% higher at 11:30 am AEST, with current volumes sitting at 2.7m compared to its 20-day average of about 800,000.
At face value, Kogan announced a rather muted fourth quarter and full-year FY22 update.
Full year | FY22 | FY21 | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
Gross sales ($m) | 1,180 | 1,179 | -0.1% |
Gross profit ($m) | 184.6 | 203.7 | -9.4% |
Adjusted EBITDA ($m) | 19.1 | 61.8 | -69.0% |
Table: Market Index | Source: Kogan
Perhaps what was most encouraging, was the "significant unwinding" of inventories from $227.9m at the end of FY21 to now, $161.1m.
Even after a near 40% rerate, Kogan shares are still down -52% year-to-date and -83% away from October 2020 all-time highs.
The curse is broken
Since the beginning of 2021, Kogan had a ritual of purging its valuation every few months with poor business and/or financial updates.
2021
29 Jan: Business update (-8.5%)
26 Feb: 1H21 results (-10.4%)
23 Apr: Business Update (-14.3%)
21 May: Business Update (-14.6%)
21 July: Business Update (-1.5%)
24 Aug: FY21 results (-15.5%)
20 Oct: Business Update (+6.7%)
25 Nov: Annual General Meeting (-4.3%)
2022
27 Jan: Business update (-12.3%)
25 Feb: 1H21 results (-6.2%)
29 Apr: Business update (-13.9%)
28 Jul: Business update (+39.6%)
Excluding today's move, the average decline was -8.6%. Now it's improved to -4.6%.
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Kogan 12-month share price chart
