Morning Wrap: S&P 500 falls as yields rise + ASX 200 performance during geopolitical events
ASX 200 futures are trading 83 points lower, down -1.18% as of 8:20 am AEST.
Mentioned
ASX 200 futures are trading 83 points lower, down -1.18% as of 8:20 am AEST.
Major US benchmarks were heavy amid yields continued to rally past recent highs and growing Middle East tensions, US earnings season takes a negative turn with underwhelming results from chip supplier ASML, Morgan Stanley, JB Hunt Transport Services and United Airlines, UK inflation comes in hotter-than-expected in September, the average US 30-year mortgage rate tops 8% for the first time since 2000 and why lithium miners are set for a painful session on Thursday.
Let's dive in.
S&P 500 SESSION CHART
S&P 500 finished near worst levels on Wednesday (Source: TradingView)
MARKETS
Major US benchmarks finished lower, near worst levels, now all down for the week
Treasury yields continue to push multi-decade highs, with the 10-year up another 8 bps to levels not seen since August 2007
Positioning in S&P 500 futures came into the week net short US$27bn compared to a week earlier vs. the US$75bn net long at the end of July, says Citi
Lots of moving pieces overnight including growing Middle East tensions, the rising bond yield backdrop, higher oil prices, concerns about Q4 earnings and the lagged effects of the aggressive tightening cycle
Hedge funds are still selling stocks at an aggressive clip but one-week change in JPMorgan's Tactical Positioning Monitor was neutral
Oil prices briefly rallied 2.3% after Iran’s foreign minister called for an oil embargo against Israel (Reuters)
Middle East conflict and rising oil prices weigh on market sentiment (Bloomberg)
Value of distressed US CRE near $80bn in Q3, highest in a decade (Bloomberg)
US chip stocks shed US$73bn after US bans export of more AI chips (Bloomberg)
STOCKS
Nvidia warns of product snags from tightening of US export rules (Reuters)
ASML warns of flat 2024 sales as chipmakers slow orders (Reuters)
Microsoft to add Amazon as 365 Cloud customer in US$1B deal (Business Insider)
X to test a $1 per year subscription to reduce spam and bot accounts (Bloomberg)
Scotiabank to lay off 3% of global workforce (Reuters)
EARNINGS
Tesla and Netflix reported earnings after hours. We'll go into these in more detail tomorrow. (Tesla in a nutshell: Double miss and gross margins deteriorated to 7.6% from around 17% a year ago).
Procter & Gamble (+2.6%): Double beat, Q1 EPS was more than 6% above consensus, gross margins rose 460 bps year-on-year to 52.0% (vs. 49.2% consensus) helped by favourable commodity cost trends, better pricing and productivity savings. Organic sales up 7% driven by a 7% increase in price partly offset by a 1% drop in volume.
ASML (-4.2%): Revenue miss but earnings expectations, value of new orders was 42% below consensus, leading to a flat 2024 revenue outlook (vs. +8% prior). The company supplies major chipmakers such as Intel, Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor.
A slowdown is taking place: "As expected, we did see some moderation in orders this quarter as the industry is working through a cycle, customers remain cautious in the current environment managing cash flows & delaying purchase orders. In addition, there were no high North American orders this quarter.”
Morgan Stanley (-6.8%): Revenue and earnings slightly ahead of consensus, wealth management and investment bank revenue short of estimates. This marks the worst earnings reaction since the Global Financial Crisis.
JB Hunt Transport Services (-8.9%): EPS slightly below expectations but EBIT was a wide miss. Management said “we are not at a point yet to say we’re out of the freight recession but we do feel like we’re coming out of it or said differently. Directionally, we are seeing signs of things moving in a positive direction.
United Airlines (-9.7%): Double beat, management said the company saw record revenue for the quarter and near the high end of guidance. Momentum has continued in August and September, with both months well-ahead of year-on-year demand. Guidance for the next quarter was very weak, weighed by higher fuel, labour costs, maintenance and landing fees.
CENTRAL BANKS
BoJ steps into debt market to slow rising bond yields (Bloomberg)
ECB's Stournaras says Middle East conflict casts shadow over ECB meeting (FT)
ECB's Holzmann says not out of the woods yet on inflation (Bloomberg)
RBA Bullock worried ongoing geopolitical shocks will entrench inflation (ABC)
GEOPOLITICS
Biden lands in Israel as chaos rises across Middle East (Bloomberg)
Biden vows aid for Gaza, Israel as protests rock Middle East (Reuters)
ECONOMY
China's growth beats forecasts as consumer spending improves (Bloomberg)
UK inflation higher than expected at 6.7% in Sept after oil price jump (Bloomberg)
Average 30-year US mortgage rate hits 8% for first time since 2000 (CNBC)
ASX 200 Performance During Rising Geopolitical Tensions
In short: Geopolitical events do not exhibit any consistent patterns for risk assets.
Event | Event Date | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Soros Breaks Bank of England | 16/09/1992 | -6.2% | 0.6% | 8.0% | 22.7% |
First World Trade Centre Bombing | 26/02/1993 | 4.1% | 8.2% | 18.3% | 28.3% |
Asian Financial Crisis | 8/10/1997 | -8.9% | -2.6% | 1.3% | -10.9% |
USS Cole Yemen Bombing | 12/10/2000 | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
September 11 Attacks | 11/09/2001 | -1.3% | 3.7% | 7.2% | -2.9% |
Iraq War | 20/03/2003 | 4.0% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 19.9% |
Madrid Bombing | 11/03/2004 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 5.1% | 23.1% |
London Subway Bombing | 5/07/2005 | 1.7% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 18.5% |
Bear Stearns Collapses | 14/03/2008 | 3.7% | 2.3% | -5.8% | -35.8% |
Lehman Brothers Collapses | 15/09/2008 | -10.7% | -25.5% | -30.5% | -5.8% |
Boston Marathon Bombing | 20/02/2014 | -1.2% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 8.7% |
Russia Annexed Crimea | 24/06/2016 | 8.3% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% |
Brexit | 7/04/2017 | -0.4% | -1.8% | -3.6% | -1.3% |
Bombing of Syria | 28/07/2017 | -0.6% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 10.5% |
North Korean Missile Crisis | 28/07/2017 | -0.6% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 10.5% |
Saudi Aramco Drone Strike | 14/09/2019 | -0.5% | 1.0% | -20.5% | -11.5% |
Iranian General Killed in Airstrike | 3/01/2020 | 3.2% | -23.5% | -11.9% | -0.8% |
US Pulls out of Afghanistan | 30/08/2021 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -6.1% | -6.7% |
1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | -0.4% | -0.6% | 0.6% | 4.4% |
Median | -0.4% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
% Higher | 44.4% | 72.2% | 66.7% | 50.0% |
Sectors to Watch: Brace for Pain
Markets are struggling against the rising bond yield and geopolitical tensions backdrop.
Lithium: Rare Earths & Strategic Metals ETF down 4.7% and Albemarle down 9.8% overnight. Bank of America downgraded the lithium producer to an Underperform rating, citing a challenged outlook for the lithium market and concerns of weaker prices into 2025. Tesla also missed earnings expectations, with a notably 16 days of inventory left (aka expect more price cuts).
Travel: US Global Jets ETF down 4.4% to a fresh 12-month low. The poor guidance from United Airlines flagged some industry wide cost pressures surrounding labour, maintenance and landing fees. This could see some negative for Qantas (ASX: QAN).
Materials: Materials was the worst performing sector overnight, down 2.6%. US-listed BHP and Rio Tinto also finished the session down 2.1% and 3.0% respectively.
Key Events
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
Trading ex-div: The Reject Shop (TRS) – $0.16, Cosol (COS) – $0.015
Dividends paid: Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.18, Nine Entertainment (NEC) – $0.05, Lovisa (LOV) – $0.31
Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
10:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade
11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate
3:00 am: Fed Chair Powell Speech
