Market Wrap

Morning Wrap: Bear market rally takes a pause as bond yields rise, ASX set to fall

Wed 01 Jun 22, 8:37am (AEST)

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ASX Futures (SPI 200) imply the ASX will open 26 points lower, down -0.36%

Major US indices fell in volatile trade, Treasury yields are bouncing back - a potential problem for equities, President Biden tries to deflect the responsibility for fighting inflation to the Fed, the US is considering easing Chinese tariffs and Shanghai reopened on Tuesday night.

Let’s dive in.

Overnight summary

Wed 01 Jun 22, 8:37am (AEST)

Name Value Chg %
Major Indices
S&P 500 4,132 -0.63%
Dow Jones 32,990 -0.67%
NASDAQ Comp 12,081 -0.41%
Russell 2000 1,864 -1.26%
Country Indices
Canada 20,729 -0.91%
China 3,186 +1.19%
Germany 14,388 -1.29%
Hong Kong 21,415 +1.38%
India 55,566 -0.64%
Japan 27,280 -0.33%
United Kingdom 7,608 +0.10%
Name Value Chg %
Commodities (USD)
Gold 1,842.70 0.00%
Iron Ore 136.07 -
Copper 4.289 -0.17%
WTI Oil 115.28 +0.53%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.7176 +0.07%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (AUD) 44,214 -0.35%
Ethereum (AUD) 2,712 -2.60%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 2.844 +3.68%
VIX 26 -1.32%

Stocks

  • The recent ‘bear market rally’ has taken a pause as downside risks including rising Treasury yields and surging oil prices weigh

  • “It’s difficult to construct a case for more than a bear market rally, which could carry another 5%,” said Morgan Stanley

    • Inflation remains too high for the Fed’s liking and so whatever pivot investors might be hoping for will be too immaterial to change the downtrend.” 

    • “One event that could increase those odds is a meaningful and lasting ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia … it would relieve a lot of pressure on global growth and commodity prices.”

  • 9 out of 11 US sectors declined

  • Consumer discretionary and staples were the only ones that advanced

  • Energy and materials fell the most

  • 60% of US stocks fell

  • 68% of US stocks trade below their 200-day moving average (67% on Tuesday, 73% a week ago)

  • Several US-listed Chinese stocks rallied after Shanghai lifted lockdowns and restrictions eased in Beijing

    • JD (eCommerce) +4.65%

    • Alibaba (tech/eCommerce) +2.8%

    • Baidu (Chinese Google) +0.9% (down from session highs of 4.9%)

  • Unilever (+9.9%) after activist investor Nelson Peltz - founder of hedge fund Trian Fund Management - joined the board and acquired a 1.5% stake in the company  

  • Salesforce (-2.9%, after hours: +7.6%) beat first quarter earnings expectations and lifted its full year guidance

    • “We’re just not seeing material impact on the broader economic world that all of you are in,” said CEO Marc Benioff 

Economy

  • US President Joe Biden met with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, shifting the burden for battling inflation to the Fed

    • “My plan is to address inflation. That starts with a simple proposition: respect the Fed, respect the Fed’s independence, which I have done and will continue to do,” said Biden 

  • The US is considering easing tariffs on China in an attempt to mitigate inflation

    • "Easing tariffs can potentially ease inflation ... at least by a few basis points, if not more," White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse told Bloomberg

  • US consumer confidence hit a 3-month low of 106.4

    • Economists were expecting a reading of 104

    • Consumers are spending less on big-ticket items like cars and appliances

    • There is a shift in spending to services like going to restaurants and travelling 

  • Eurozone inflation hit 8.1% in May

    • Highest level since recordkeeping began in 1997

    • Energy inflation likely to stay high after the EU embargo on most Russian oil imports

  • Shanghai reopens on Tuesday night

    • Residents will need a 72 hour negative PCR test

    • There’s over 15,000 testing locations within a 15 min walk from almost everywhere

    • PCR tests are free until June 30

  • China’s manufacturing PMI was 49.6 in May

    • Economists were expecting a reading of 48.9

    • A solid improvement from 47.4 in April

    • Any figure below 50 indicates a contraction

Commodities

  • Iron ore were relatively unchanged

  • Oil prices pulled back from highs of US$120 after the EU agreed on a partial Russian oil ban, better-than-expected Chinese PMIs and the reopening of Shanghai

  • Gold began to slip as US yields began bouncing after a recent pullback 

 

US Sectors

Wednesday, 01 June 2022

Sector Chg %
Communication Services +0.40%
Consumer Discretionary +0.76%
Consumer Staples -0.73%
Energy -1.65%
Financials -0.34%
Health Care -1.37%
Sector Chg %
Industrials -0.85%
Information Technology -0.70%
Materials -1.60%
Real Estate -1.34%
Utilities -1.38%

Industry ETFs

Wednesday, 01 June 2022

Description Last Chg %
Commodities
Aluminum 60.705 -3.48%
Copper Miners 39.7 -0.40%
Gold 172.85 -0.99%
Lithium & Battery Tech 74.35 -1.00%
Nickel 37.98 -0.14%
Strategic Metals 103.59 -1.66%
Steel 64.32 -2.30%
Silver 20.36 -2.55%
Uranium 22.19 -1.13%
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense 103.42 -1.20%
Global Jets 20.6 -0.58%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 119.5 -2.37%
Cannabis 3.44 -1.16%
Description Last Chg %
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 17.89 +9.73%
Renewables
CleanTech 14.76 +0.14%
Hydrogen 14.66 -1.77%
Solar 71.28 -0.25%
Technology
Cloud Computing 18.21 -1.92%
Cybersecurity 27.05 -2.62%
E-commerce 18.29 +0.11%
Electric Vehicles 25.04 -0.08%
FinTech 25.71 -1.48%
Robotics & AI 23.78 +0.29%
Semiconductor 428.34 -0.51%
Sports Betting/Gaming 17.06 -0.64%
Video Games/eSports 52.4 +0.02%

ASX Sectors to watch

The overnight session seemed rather uneventful given the ASX had already made the first move in giving back recent gains. The US market was closed on Monday, so the S&P/ASX 200 decided to sell off first, down -1.03%.

Downside risks are beginning to creep in after a rather positive last couple of days buoyed by positive US corporate earnings, China's anticipated reopening and easing bond yields.

Most ETFs (table above) declined 1-2%, including:

  • Tech (Cloud and Fintech)

  • Rare Earth/Strategic Metals

  • Uranium

  • Lithium

  • Steel

SPI futures are pointing to a -0.36% fall, so prepare for more weakness.

#1 Aluminium

Aluminium is failing to bounce even with China's reopening news.

There seems to be an emerging divergence between South 32 (ASX: S32) and aluminium prices, notwithstanding the company's fundamentals and other factors.

JJU 2022-06-01 08-23-28
Aluminium price vs. South 32 (Source: TradingView)

#2 Tech

Those beaten up names that rallied in the last few sessions are back to selling off, including:

  • Snapchat -9.4%

  • Affirm -6.1%

  • Block -3.3%

  • Zoom -2.7%

It looks like local Zip (ASX: Z1P) shares were well aware of the trend, down -6.2% on Monday.

Today's events

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Ex-dividend: NBI, UMG, VGI

  • Dividends paid: DDR, SNC

  • Listing: NNL

  • Issued shares: ADN, BLG, CHN, CHZ, CNJ, CVV, DGR, EBO, ENV, FLX, IVZ, MFG, NBI, NGE, NZM, OPY, PLT, PNN, PXS, RB6, RGL

Other things of interest: 

  • Aus GDP Growth Rate (Q1) at 11:30 am

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) at 11:45 am

 

Written By

Kerry Sun

Finance Writer & Social Media

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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