Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to tumble, S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumble as Trump commits to sweeping tariffs

Mon 03 Feb 25, 8:39am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are down 101pts (-1.20%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

  • US stocks were trending higher until Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

  • The three countries are the largest trading partners with the US and analysts expect the tariffs to push up domestic prices and reduce household income

  • Healthcare stocks set to sell off on Monday amid tariff concerns, overseas listed ResMed and Fisher & Paykel shares down ~8%

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Mon 03 Feb 25, 8:25am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 6,041 -0.50%
Dow Jones 44,545 -0.75%
NASDAQ Comp 19,627 -0.28%
Russell 2000 2,288 -0.86%
Country Indices
Canada 25,533 -1.07%
China 3,251 -0.06%
Germany 21,732 +0.02%
Hong Kong 20,225 +0.14%
India 77,506 +0.97%
Japan 39,572 +0.15%
United Kingdom 8,674 +0.31%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,835.0 -0.46%
Iron Ore 105.78 +4.39%
Copper 4.279 -0.68%
WTI Oil 72.53 -0.87%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6211 -0.08%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD) 97,746 -3.61%
Ethereum (AUD) 4,778 -6.99%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.569 +1.26%
VIX 16.43 +3.72%

US Sectors

Mon 03 Feb 25, 8:25am (AEDT)

SECTOR % CHG
Communication Services +0.74%
Consumer Discretionary +0.09%
Real Estate -0.22%
Health Care -0.35%
Financials -0.62%
Utilities -0.62%
SECTOR % CHG
Industrials -0.72%
Consumer Staples -0.72%
Materials -0.73%
Information Technology -0.79%
Energy -2.74%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

SPX 2025-02-03 08-22-07
S&P 500 was trending higher until Trump ordered sweeping tariffs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

  • Major US benchmarks lower, finished at worst levels after early strength

  • S&P 500 up as much as 0.82% before closing 0.51% lower

  • US weekly recap: Dow (+0.27%), Russell 2000 (-0.87%), S&P 500 (-1.00%), Nasdaq (-1.64%)

  • US monthly recap: Nasdaq (+1.64%), Russell 2000 (+2.58%), S&P 500 (+2.70%), Dow (+4.70%)

  • Today’s big story: Trump announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada (25% duties though 10% on Canadian energy) plus 10% on China

  • Countries are the three largest trading partners of the US and the move could raise prices of food, autos and consumer goods (CNBC)

  • Tariffed countries have all pledged to respond; China said it would take “corresponding countermeasures”, Canada imposed 25% tariffs on a wide range of US exports (RT)

  • Mag 7 stocks set to lag this year, suggesting investors buy cheap international stocks, says BofA's Hartnett (BBG)

  • Global equity funds draw biggest weekly inflow in five weeks, driven by a record rally in European shares (RT)

STOCKS

  • Atlassian (+14.9%) Q2 earnings beat against high bar, increased FY25 guidance more than expected, strong cloud and data centre performance, record number of high-value ACV deals (RT)

  • Apple (-0.6%) 1Q25 EPS beat, with gross margins 40 bps above estimates, iPhone revenue missed by ~2%, Mac and iPad outperformed, China a key area of weakness with sales down 11%, iPhone 16 demand stronger in markets where Apple Intelligence is available, March quarter revenue growth at  low-to-mid single digits (BBG)

  • Samsung guidance subdued amid weak outlook for AI chips (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • Major central banks are cutting while Fed moves to the sidelines; policy divergence could mean an even stronger dollar (RT)

  • ECB rate cut fuels expectations for further easing amid weak growth (RT)

  • RBA rate cut in February, according to majority of economists (BBG)

TRUMP

  • China, Mexico and Canada are the three largest trading partners with the US, supplying US$536bn, $455bn and $437bn of goods respectively, to the US in 2022, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative 

  • US household income after taxes could fall by ~1% in 2026 due to the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, according to the Tax Policy Centre

  • Tariffs could raise approximately US$1.3tn in revenue through 2035, offset by the cost of tax cuts, which could cost more than US$5tn over 10 years (CNBC)

ECONOMY

  • US December core PCE up 0.2% MoM, in-line with consensus and up 2.6% year-on-year, also as expected though higher than November’s 2.4% (RT)

  • UK business confidence dips in January, but trading prospects show resilience (RT)

  • Tokyo core inflation rises to highest since Feb-2024 (BBG)

Industry ETFs

Mon 03 Feb 25, 8:25am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Silver 28.51 -0.73%
Strategic Metals 40.61 -1.10%
Gold Miners 38.96 -1.17%
Lithium & Battery Tech 40.49 -1.51%
Steel 60.91 -1.52%
Uranium 28.31 -2.11%
Copper Miners 38.18 -2.33%
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense 156.58 -0.41%
Agriculture 27.6 -0.43%
Construction 77.1438 -1.17%
Global Jets 26.03 -1.29%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 138.66 -0.15%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24.59 -3.42%
Renewables
Hydrogen 21.8 +0.18%
Solar 33.8 -1.11%
CleanTech 6.74 -1.61%
Technology
Semiconductor 218.13 -0.28%
Sports Betting/Gaming 20.0114 -0.52%
Cloud Computing 25.57 -0.62%
Cybersecurity 34.26 -0.70%
Robotics & AI 33.18 -0.81%
FinTech 33.15 -0.90%
Electric Vehicles 23.18 -1.07%
Video Games/eSports 87.17 -1.10%
E-commerce 30.23 -1.66%

ASX TODAY

  • AMA Group holder Thorney raises stake to 14.88% from 11.53% (AMA)

  • Austal shares under institutional accumulation, with buyers thinking the 

  • company will benefit from Trump’s return to power (AFR)

  • Austin Engineering notes US tariffs, says business is shielded from impacts after recent repositioning of US business (ANG)

  • Fisher & Paykel continues to expect to reach 65% gross margins, does not currently anticipate a material impact from the announced tariffs on NPAT for FY25, but costs likely to increase in FY26 (FPH)

  • Myer holder Perpetual increases holding to 10.46% from 8.54% (MYR)

  • SelfWealth potentially in the midst of a bidding war after Singaporean investment platform Syfe discloses 19.99% holding, leaving it in a position to launch a bid to compete with Bell Financial’s current offer (SWF)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

  • Here comes a heavy session: Expect broad-based weakness after the Trump tariffs. Most of the overnight ETFs above finished 1-3% lower, led by sub-sectors like copper miners, energy and homebuilders

  • Healthcare: Healthcare names like ResMed, Fisher & Paykel etc. have manufacturing facilities from the tariffed countries. US-listed ResMed ADRs finished the session down 8.3%, while NXZ-listed FPH shares are currently down 8.2%.

  • Gold: Gold prices briefly spiked to a record US$2,817 overnight but finished the session around breakeven at US$2,797. While gold is considered a safe haven, it still faces challenges in times of extreme uncertainty.

BROKER MOVES

  • Bluescope Steel upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $24 from $21 (CITI)

  • PointsBet downgraded to Overweight from Buy; target cut to $0.95 from $1.00 (JARD)

  • ResMed upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to US$290 from US$255 (UBS)

  • Zip upgraded to Buy from Neutral; but target cut to $3 from $3.30 (CITI)

Key Events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

  • Mon 3 Feb: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.12, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.039, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.012

  • Tue 4 Feb: Amcil (AMH) – $0.01

  • Wed 5 Feb: None

  • Thu 6 Feb: Midway (MWY) – 31.43%

  • Fri 7 Feb: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

  • Dividends paid: None

  • Listing: None

  • Earnings: Centuria Office REIT (COF)

  • AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

  • 10:30 pm: Australia Retail Sales (Dec)

  • 11:45 pm: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

  • 8:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation Rate (Jan)

  • 1:00 am: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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