Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 flat + BHP, CSL and Hub24 earnings

ASX 200 futures are down 23pts (-0.25%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 sideways, little changed (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks little changed, in a relatively rangebound session

• Today’s big story – Very quiet day for corporate updates, geopolitics dominated headlines, with ongoing meeting between Trump, Zelensky and European leaders

• Powell speech at Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, analysts expect Powell to lean dovish but may not explicitly suggest a 25 bp cut

• Citron doubles-down on Palantir short thesis, sets $40 target price (WSJ)

• Hedge funds load up on US stocks at fastest pace in weeks in anticipation of Fed rate cut (RT)

• S&P 500 profits smash predictions, bolstered by AI investment and recession fears fade slightly (WSJ)

• US earnings estimates surge, despite trade war concerns lingering (BBG)

• Global investors cut hedges against weaker US dollar, now back near pre-Liberation Day levels (BBG)

STOCKS

• Novo Nordisk offering cash-paying US patients Ozempic for less than half its monthly list price (CNBC)

• Trump administration mulls 10% Intel stake, US could become its largest shareholder (BBG)

• Foxconn surpasses Apple revenue as AI server business booms, driving diversification (RT)

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warns of AI bubble amid surging industry spending (CNBC)

• Tesla slashes UK leasing prices, offering up to 40% discounts (LT)

TARIFFS

• White House again warns India on buying Russian oil (YF)

GEOPOLITICS

• Ukraine peace summit between Trump and Putin ended with no concrete agreement on the war, though both sides described talks as "constructive" (FT)

• Trump "largely agreed" with Putin on land transfers to Russia and NATO/US security guarantees for Ukraine (RT)

• Zelensky says Russia can only be forced into peace through strength, Trump has that strength (RT)

• Trump urges Zelenskiy to drop Crimea and NATO hopes before White House talks (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell's Jackson Hole speech looms large, potentially driving volatility for Fed rate cut expectations (BBG)

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic sees stressed consumers, tariff costs, open to rate cut if labour market holds (BBG)

• China's central bank holds back on aggressive easing despite weak economic data (BBG)

ECONOMY

No major economic announcements.

ASX TODAY

It’s a massive day for earnings, and we’ll be covering all the key results as they drop. Follow our Live Blog for the latest company announcements, consensus numbers, market moves, and economic updates.

• Apollo and Ares running the ruler over Aurizon’s Queensland railway track network, previous asking price was $8bn on a 100% basis (AFR)

• Bank of Montreal holding discussions with a few mid-tier stockbrokers in Australia, seeking to acquire strategic stake in local player (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Lithium: Lithium stocks continued kicking on yesterday after Chinese lithium carbonate futures rallied 4.6% to 89,240 yuan a tonne. This marks a 52% rally from mid-June lows.

• Earnings: Massive day for earnings, spanning bellwether names like CSL and BHP, to more interesting names like Judo Capital (massive growth expectations for FY26-27), Hub24 (trading at very lofty valuations) and more.

• Kaili Resources: This SA-based rare earth explorer rallied 8,700% yesterday (not a typo). One of its directors was issued 75 million shares in exchange for a $4.6 million loan on 5-Aug. The company only has ~$15,000 cash. Will be interesting how the ASX deals with this.

BROKER MOVES

• Hub24 upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $101 from $43

• Netwealth upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $34 from $21.50 (JPM)

• oOh!Media upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $2.0 from $1.70 (MS)

• Regis Healthcare downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target up to $8.0 from $7.10 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 19 Aug: Bailador Technology Investments (BTI) – $0.036, Computershare (CPU) – $0.48, ECP Emerging Growth (ECP) – $0.032, QBE Insurance (QBE) – $0.31, Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – $0.014, Suncorp (SUN) – $0.49

• Wed 20 Aug: Commonwealth Bank (CBA) – $2.60, FSA Group (FSA) – $0.035, Ryder Capital (RYD) – $0.055

• Thu 21 Aug: AMP (AMP) – $0.02, Brickworks (BKW) – $0.484, Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – $0.19, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $2.05, Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.59

• Fri 22 Aug: ASX (ASX) – $1.121

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Centuria Capital (CNI), Centuria Office (COF), Domain (DHG)

• Earnings: Amplitude Energy (AEL), Ainsworth (AGI), ARB Corp (ARB), BHP (BHP), Challenger (CGF), Centauri Capital (CNI), CSL (CSL), Emeco (EHL), HMC Capital (HMC), Hub24 (HUB), Judo Capital (JDO), James Hardie (JHX), MacMahon (MAH), Monadelphous (MND), Mystate (MYS), Region Group (RGN), Seek (SEK), Sims (SGM), SRG Global (SRG), Woodside (WDS), Yancoal (YAL)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Aug)

• 10:30 pm: Canada Inflation (Jul)

• 10:30 pm: US Building Permits, Housing Starts (Jul)