Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at fresh all-time highs, Copper prices jump

ASX 200 futures are down 23 pts (-0.25%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 (+1.05%) and Nasdaq (+1.64%) closed at fresh all-time highs after a two-day pullback

• Breadth was positive, but the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.04%) slipped as sectors like Real Estate, Industrials, Financials and Utilities finished lower

• Trump indefinitely extended the US-Iran ceasefire, though tensions remain elevated, while physical energy market tightness starting to become an area of concern

• Strong overnight session for commodities, with a notable 1.96% jump for copper, trading at near three-month high of US$6.18/lb

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 23 Apr 26, 8:25am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	7,138	+1.05%
Dow Jones	49,490	+0.69%
NASDAQ Comp	24,658	+1.64%
Russell 2000	2,785	+0.74%
Country Indices
Canada	33,955	+0.43%
China	4,106	+0.52%
Germany	24,195	-0.31%
Hong Kong	26,163	-1.22%
India	78,516	-0.95%
Japan	59,586	+0.40%
United Kingdom	10,476	-0.21%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,736.44	+0.34%
Copper	6.13	+2.12%
WTI Oil	92.96	+3.67%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7159	-0.03%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	78,813	+4.16%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,354	+3.86%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.294	+0.05%
VIX	18.92	-2.97%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gaps up, trends higher to close at best levels and fresh all-time highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, finished near session highs with tech leading as sentiment improved on Trump's indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh all-time highs after falling in the previous two sessions

• Breadth was positive, but the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.04%) lagged the cap-weighted index by 109 bps, reflecting outsized gains for Tech and Communication Services

• Markets no longer priced for worst-case Iran war scenario, with MSCI World Index now 2% above its pre-war close after erasing a 3.29% slump, Goldman sees Brent at US$80 year-end vs US$60 pre-shock (CNBC)

• Index tracking semiconductor stocks is on track for record 16th straight daily gain (BBG)

• Bond options traders betting on continued fall in volatility in Treasury yields (BBG)

• Netflix attracting record retail flows at $290m five-day net buy, highest of 2026 despite shares dropping more than 13% over the past week (CNBC)

ENERGY

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on Liberia-flagged container ship, seized two container ships attempting crossing, said strait remains closed until US lifts naval blockade (CBS)

• US Navy boarded Iranian oil tanker in the Indian Ocean associated with Iran's oil trade, while maintaining naval blockade of Iranian ports (CFR)

• IEA said physical crude prices surged to record levels near US$150/bbl in recent weeks, Singapore middle distillate prices hit all-time highs above US$290/bbl, 85mn barrel draw in March global inventories (IEA)

• Iran-related demand destruction now estimated at 4-5mn barrels per day or around 5% of global supply, with Asia bearing the brunt of the impact (TE)

• Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5mn b/d of crude oil production in March, EIA expects peak shut-ins of 9.1mn b/d in April (EIA)

• Goldman's Daan Struyven said ceasefire extension lowers tail risk of infrastructure damage but warned inventories cannot keep drawing indefinitely, sees Brent at $80/bbl by year-end (CNBC)

IRAN

• Trump indefinitely extended US-Iran ceasefire just hours before expiry, citing Iran's "seriously fractured" government, said truce holds until Tehran presents "unified proposal" (CNBC)

• Trump willing to give Iran's divided leaders 3-5 days to unify behind proposal or ceasefire ends (AX)

• US and Iran discuss compromises on nuclear issues, framework may address uranium enrichment (WSJ)

• VP Vance cancelled planned trip to Islamabad for second-round peace talks after Tehran informed US via Pakistan it would not participate (BBG)

• Advisor to Iran parliament called Trump's ceasefire extension "a ploy to buy time" for a surprise strike, said US naval blockade is "no different from bombardment" (CNBC)

STOCKS

• Tesla Q1 FY26 revenue down 9% year-on-year to $22.39bn, missed consensus by ~1%, adjusted EPS of 41 cents beat ests by ~11%, gross margin 21.7% vs 17.7% expected (CNBC)

• Boeing Q1 FY26 revenue up 14% year-on-year to $22.22bn, 2% ahead of consensus, adjusted loss per share 20c beat 83c loss expected, backlog hit record $695bn, shares jump 5.5% (CNBC)

• AT&T Q1 FY26 revenue up 2.9% year-on-year to $31.5bn, adjusted EPS 57c beat consensus by ~4%, free cash flow $2.5bn at high end of guidance, reiterated full-year 2026 outlook (YF)

• Best Buy CEO transition announced, with chief customer officer Jason Bonfig succeeding Corie Barry at end of Q3, shares fell ~4.6% early (SWB)

• Adobe initiates US$25bn buyback, aligning with other software firms to boost investor confidence (BBG)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• Trump-Xi summit confirmed for May 14-15 in Beijing, Boeing CEO signalled high confidence a deal would include a major Chinese aircraft order as part of broader trade pact (IVST)

• US Customs and Border Protection launched CAPE tariff refund processing system on April 20 to streamline submission of IEEPA tariff refunds after February SCOTUS ruling (TC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• China's central bank boosts banking system liquidity, raising confidence in the ongoing bond rally (BBG)

• ECB officials say it's too soon to hike as full consequences of Iran war remain unclear (BBG)

• Reuters poll of 103 economists now sees Fed on hold at 3.50–3.75% through at least September, nearly a third expect no cut in 2026 at all, up from 17% a month ago (RT)

ECONOMY

• Japan exports rose for a seventh straight month in March, trade surplus of 667bn yen fell short of 1.1tn yen forecast (CNBC)

• South Korea producer prices grew at fastest pace in over three years in March, supported by higher oil prices amid Middle East conflict (CNBC)

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking 1.3% pace for Q1 growth, advance Q1 GDP estimate due next week (GM)

ASX TODAY

• Q3 production results from a long list of miners including Elevra, Regis, Perseus, Develop Global, West African Resources, Alkane, Black Cat and more (we'll take a closer look in the Blog)

• Block announces expanded global partnership with Uber to expand restaurant operations and launch Cash App Pay (XYZ)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Cochlear faced absolute annihilation yesterday, down 40.7%. Worst one-day selloff by a wide margin (2nd worst was a 24% dip on 16-12-23). New FY26 underlying NPAT guidance of $290-330m is a ~30% downgrade (at the midpoint) vs. prior guidance, and ~24% below UBS estimates. It also implies that 2H26 underlying net profit will be ~$95-135m, representing a 32.8% year-on-year decline. Below, we’ve got Citi downgrading to Sell and halving their target price (goes to show how left field this was), while Morgan Stanley revised target still sees ~20% upside. Despite being insanely oversold, the path of least resistance with such a brutal earnings downgrade is often lower. We also witnessed some degree of contagion from the result, with peers like CSL (-5.7%), Ebos (-4.7%) and ResMed (-2.4%) sharply lower, off of no news.

• Banks: S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index tanked 2.2% yesterday, largely driven by a weaker-than-expected 1H26 result from Bank of Queensland, which tanked 9%. The result flagged NIM down 3 bps (on 2H25) to 1.67%, vs Macquarie expectations of 1.73%. It’s not a good look for the broader industry if NIMs are declining, especially when analysts expected a slight increase. Negative bank announcements are starting to pile up, including Westpac’s higher loan loss update (14-Apr), NAB’s $706m credit impairment notice (20-Apr).

• Resources strength: A relatively strong overnight session for resources, with Aluminium (+2.4%) back near recent highs and copper (+1.9%) at the highest since 30-Jan. Strong response for the ETF watchlist, with Uranium, Copper, Rare Earths/Strategic Metals all up 3-7%.

• Look at tech go: Another strong move for the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF, up 2.3% to the highest since 3-Feb. It’s now up 18.8% since the 10-Apr low. 

BROKER MOVES

• Bank of Queensland downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target cut to $5.70 from $6.00 (Macquarie)

• Bank of Queensland downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $7.00 from $7.50 (UBS)

• Cochlear downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $95 from $210 (Citi)

• Cochlear upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight; target cut to $119 from $194 (Morgan Stanley)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 23 Apr: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Steamships Trading Co (SST) – $0.181, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.011

• Fri 24 Apr: None

• Mon 27 Apr: None

• Tue 28 Apr: None

• Wed 29 Apr: Acrow (ACF) – $0.02, Waterco (WAT) – $0.07

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Gowing Bros (GOW), Nine Entertainment (NEC), Ridley Corp (RIC), Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Woodside Group (WDS)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:00 am: Australia S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI

• 6:00 pm: Eurozone S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI

• 6:30 pm: UK S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI

• 11:45 pm: US S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI