Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 snaps three-day losing streak, Tesla soars on earnings beat

ASX 200 futures are trading 15 points higher, up 0.18%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks edged higher in a largely sideways session, Tesla experienced its best session in a decade after beating Q3 earnings expectations, gold prices bounce after Wednesday's 1.1% pullback, palladium prices soar on Russia supply risks, WiseTech's CEO and Founder Richard White to step down, ResMed tops quarterly earnings expectations and more AGMs/quarterlies to come.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher in a largely sideways session  (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher in a mostly sideways session

• Corporate earnings dominated headlines, with mixed takeaways and more talk about a higher bar following recent run

• Today’s big story – Tesla shares rallied 21% after Q3 earnings beat and positive deliveries guidance, this marks the stock’s largest rally in over a decade and accounted for ~0.3% of the S&P 500 upside

• Trump tariff threat looms over yuan as well as Chinese exporters hoarding dollars, stashing money abroad (RT)

• Oil eases on 2025 oversupply issues, news of renewed Gaza ceasefire talks (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Tesla shares soar 21% after 20% Q3 EPS beat, gross margin was 19.8% (Q2: 18.0%), flagged expectations for 20-30% delivery growth in 2025 (Reuters , Bloomberg, FT)

• IBM shares dip 6% as revenue underwhelms amid declining demand from consulting clients (BBG)

• Apple's Cook is likely visiting China to bolster support for Apple Intelligence, analysts say (CNBC)

• Unilever, Danone beat Q3 sales estimates, winning back shoppers as price hikes slow (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Hammack says Fed still has more work to do on inflation (BBG)

• Bank of Canada may need another big rate cut to adjust for slow growth, economists say (RT)

• ECB's Holzmann signals likely 25 bps cut in December (BBG)

• BoE Governor Bailey signals faster rate cuts as UK disinflation outpaces expectations (BBG)

• Narrow majority of economists expect BOJ rate hike in December (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump takes narrow lead in closing weeks of race (FT)

• Harris and Trump tied in swing states (BBG)

• Putin bets on North Korean troops to help Russia retake Kursk from Ukraine (FT)

ECONOMY

• US Manufacturing PMI prints 47.8 vs. 47.6 consensus but remains in contraction territory for third-straight month (RT)

• Eurozone PMI stall in October as demand falls; unlikely to change ECB easing plans (RT)

• UK October PMIs show private sector growth slips to an 11-month low ahead of budget next week (BBG)

• Japan flash PMIs show manufacturing and services in contraction (RT)

• South Korean GDP growth slows by more than expected amid unexpected drag from exports (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Aussie Broadband reaffirms FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance of $125-135m (ABB)

• Cochlear reiterates FY25 earnings guidance, expects to see NPAT growth between 6-11% (COH)

• Judo Capital provides Q1 update, says on-track to achieve FY guidance, 90+ days past due and impaired loans remain stable closing at 2.34% (JDO)

• HMC Capital previously made unsuccessful bid for Tilt Renewables, looking for a stake to add in to its energy transition fund (The Aus)

• Qantas provides 1H25 trading update, Jetstar Domestic outperforming previous expectations due to stronger than anticipated travel demand, $400m on-market buy-back is ~45% complete, guides to FY25 EBIT growth of 10% (QAN)

• Qoria Managing Director Tim Levy discloses sale of 3.0m shares (QOR)

• ResMed reports Q1 EPS of $2.20 vs. $2.05 consensus (RMD)

• WiseTech CEO Richard White to stand down as Director and CEO, will commence a new full-time consulting role focused on product and business development, CFO Andrew Cartledge will assume the role as interim CEO (WTC)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Quarterly and AGM galore: Lots of newsflow this morning, mostly companies reiterating guidance. ResMed's quarterly appears like a sizeable beat and its NYSE-listed shares are up around 7.8% in after hours. WiseTech will likely experience a lot of volatility as Founder and CEO Richard White steps down – Interesting to see Goldman upgrade the stock, also note that the interim CEO Andrew Cartledge was seeking to retire in 2025

• Gold: Gold prices rallied 0.7% overnight after falling 1.1% in the previous session. Despite the bounce, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF fell 2.6% (off session lows of 4.3%) reflecting a poor quarterly result from Newmont, which missed consensus EPS expectations by 5.8%. It will be interesting how local gold names trade on Friday.

• Palladium: Palladium prices soared 9.1% on Thursday after the US asked G7 allies to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium. Russia produces more than 40% of global palladium output. A name like Chalice ticked 1.3% higher on Thursday. Let's see if the sector continues ticking higher.

BROKER MOVES

• 29Metals downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $0.45 from $0.55 (MS)

• Adairs upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $2.54 from $2.04 (JARD)

• Aristocrat upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $68 from $41.15 (JEF)

• Brambles resumed Overweight with $18.60 target (JPM)

• HMC Capital upgraded to Hold from Underperform; target up to $8.73 from $6.92 (CLSA)

• Insignia Financial upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $3.10 from $2.30 (UBS)

• Northern Star downgraded to Hold from Outperform; target up to $17.70 from $16.25 (NST)

• Reece upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target up to $24.10 from $22.85 (MQG)

• Reliance Worldwide downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target up to $5.65 from $5.60 (JARD)

• WiseTech upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target remains $138 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 25 Oct: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – 2.47%

• Mon 28 Oct: Alcoa Corp (AAI) – 0.17%

• Tue 29 Oct: Waterco (WAT) – 1.43% 

• Wed 30 Oct: Hotel Property Investments (HPI) – 1.78%, Acrow  (ACF) – 2.76%

• Thu 31 Oct: Imperial Pacific (IPC) – 4.83%, London City Equities (LCE) – 2.03%, Autosports (ASG) – 3.28%

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: New Hope Corp (NHC), Nine Entertainment Co. (NEC), Ridley Corp (RIC), Stealth Group (SGI)

• Listing: None

• AGMs: Adairs (ADH), Aussie Broadband (ABB), Car Group (CAR),Cochlear (COH) ,Cleanaway (CWY), Judo Capital (JDO), Korvest (KOV), McMillan Shakespeare (MMS), Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI), Qantas Airways (QAN), 

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders (Sep)