Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 rallies, Fed reiterates two rate cuts for 2025

ASX 200 futures are up 53pts (+0.67%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell: 

• US stocks rallied after the Fed left rates unchanged and reiterated two more cuts for this year

• Fed's economic projections included slightly higher inflation expectations and lower GDP growth

• Washington H Soul Pattinson raises its interim dividend for the 25th consecutive year, Judo Capital hit by a major block trade, Nanosonics receives FDA approval for CORIS

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, finished off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US stocks trended higher, finished a little off best levels 

• No major surprises from the Fed, early takeaways leaned dovish (QT taper, tariff inflation transitory, inflation expectations relatively stable)

• Nothing incremental from Trump on tariffs, which can be spun as a positive for markets and risk sentiment

• Investors send $22bn into short-term US debt to ride out the market storm (FT )

• Retail investors ditch buying the dip during market's correction (CNBC)

• China's stock rally may face a 2015 type correction soon (BBG)

STOCKS

• Nvidia launches new AI chip, bets on higher computing power and personal supercomputers (FT)

• Wood's Ark Investment Management cuts its stake in Meta for first time in around a year (BBG)

• Tencent Q4 profit surges 90% on gaming and advertising boost (BBG)

• Morgan Stanley to lay off 2,000 staff to control costs (RT)

FED MARCH MEETING

• Fed left rates unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%, in-line with market expectations

• Reduced monthly Treasury runoff cap to $5bn from $25bn

• Rate cut projections unchanged from before, still expecting 50 bps of cuts by year-end

• 2025 inflation forecast ticked higher, with headline PCE from 2.5% to 2.7%

• 2025 GDP forecast reduced from 2.1% to 1.7%, 2026 lowered from 2.0% to 1.8%

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ stays on hold, prompting economist views of no early hike, Ueda reaffirms rate hike guidance (RT)

• Indonesia's central bank keeps interest rates steady amid market volatility (RT)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• White House says reciprocal tariffs on track take effect from 2-Apr (RT)

• US is about to be flooded with a massive wave of copper amid worldwide rush to front-run potential tariffs (BBG)

• Nvidia's Huang downplays potential tariff headwinds, notes multiple partners looking to onshore manufacturing (CNBC)

• US WTO envoy says ready to confer with China and Canada representatives on trade disputes (RT)

• EU said Trump's 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel likely to worsen situation further for EU producers, already hit by high energy prices, sluggish demand and cheap imports (FT)

ECONOMY

• Japan exports expand in February, potentially boosted by stockpiling ahead of tariffs (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Brickworks reports 1H25 underlying NPAT up 308% to $76m (prior period impacted by property revaluations), interim dividend up 4% to 25 cps (BKW)

• Cleanaway to acquire Contract Resources for $377m, acquisition forecast to deliver high-single digit EPS accretion and ~$12m synergies (CWY)

• Judo Capital’s major shareholders Bain and GIC selling combined 9.8% stake on post-close Wednesday block trade, asked for bids from a $1.74 per share floor (AFR)

• Nanosonics receives clearance from FDA for its CORIS system, first phase of commercialisation on track for 1Q26 (NAN)

• Washington H Soul Pattinson reports 1H25 statutory NPAT growth of 8.1% to $326.9m, interim dividend up 10% to 44 cps, marking the 25th consecutive year ordinary dividend growth (SOL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Working on a bottom: Stocks are volatile but showing signs of a bottom, with early hints like i) pushing for a higher high, ii) robust breadth, and iii) seasonal trends, as mid-March often marks a trough. Still, it’s premature with reciprocal tariffs looming next month.

• Broad-based strength: All S&P 500 sectors finished higher overnight, led by growth and energy. From our ETF watchlist, Uranium (+3.0%) hit a three week high while V-shaped movers like Copper and Gold Miners eked out small gains.

BROKER MOVES

• Ansell initiated Equal-weight with $37.20 target (MS)

• Cochlear initiated Underweight with $267 target (MS)

• Codan upgraded to Outperform from Neutral but target cut to $17 from $17.13 (MQG)

• CSL initiated overweight with $313 target (MS)

• Fisher & Paykel initiated Equal-weight with $36.30 target (MS)

• NAB downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $34.80 from $37.40 (MS)

• Premier Investments upgraded to Buy from Neutral but target cut to $24 from $30 (UBS)

• Ramsay Healthcare initiated Equal-weight with $36.10 target (MS)

• ResMed initiated Overweight with $280 target (MS)

• Sonic Healthcare initiated Equal-weight with $28.10 target (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 20 Mar: The a2 Milk Company (A2M) – $0.065, Cochlear (COH) – $2.15, Earlypay (EPY) – $0.001, K & S Corporation (KSC) – $0.08, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.08, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.025, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.108, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.32, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.02

• Fri 21 Mar: Latitude Group (LFS) – $0.03, Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.065

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Alcoa Corp (AAI), Accent Group (AX1), EVT (EVT), HiTech Group Australia (HIT), Imdex (IMD), MA Financial Group (MAF), Maxiparts (MXI), ResMed (RMD), Shaver Shop Group (SSG), Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Brickworks (BKW), Sigma Healthcare (SIG), Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate (FEB)

• 6:00 pm: UK Unemployment Rate (JAN)

• 11:00 pm: BoE Interest Rate Decision (Consensus: Hold at 4.5%)