Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 notches record close + MinRes, Goodman earnings

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 ekes out a record close after a last minute rally

• Bank of America's latest Global Fund Manager survey shows investors most risk-on in 15 years

• A long, long list of 1H25 results today, including Corporate Travel, Data#3, Jumbo Interactive, Santos and more

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rallied in the last 10 minutes (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US equities higher and rallied at the close to finish near best levels

• Equal-weight S&P outperformed by 53 bps, reflecting strength from resources and value-oriented sectors

• Strong Q4 earnings, with blended growth rate for S&P 500 sitting at 16.9% with over three-quarters of the index reported

• Earnings drivers include margin expansion, broadening earnings outside of the Magnificent 7, offset by softer guidance trends and Trump uncertainty

• Investors turn bearish in 2025 amid tumultuous policy changes, trade war fears and sky high stock prices (WSJ)

• China 10Y bond yield rises by most since October amid tight funding conditions (BBG)

BOFA SURVEY

• Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey highlighted cash levels down to 3.5%, the lowest since 2010

• Investors still globally very bullish stocks, with overweight stocks at net 35%

• Sentiment up 0.3 points to 6.4 but still below peak frothy levels seen in December

• Long Mag-7 and long US dollar cited as most crowded trade by 73% of respondents but down from three-year peak of 80% in January

• Biggest decline in long tech positions since September 2022 (but still most crowded)

• 89% of investors see US equities as overvalued, most since April 2001

• Global trade remains the biggest overhang

STOCKS

• Baidu (-7.5%) Q4 revenue above estimates, offsetting losses through its AI Cloud segment's growth (RT)

• Apple's quiet pivot to India as it seeks to diversify its supply chain beyond China (FT)

• Constellation Brands shares rally after Berkshire Hathaway revealed it took a position with $1.2 billion (CNBC)

• Delta Air Lines flight flips during landing at Toronto, injuring 18 (AX)

CENTRAL BANKS

• RBA cuts interest rates for the first time since 2020, cautious on more easing and inflation outlook (BBG)

• Fed Governor Waller backs rate cut pause, but sees case for resuming easing later this year (BBG)

• ECB's Holzmann sees some probability of March cut but easing becoming harder (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• US and Russia to hold Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia without Kyiv and Europe sidelined (WSJ)

• Trump demands $500bn payback from Ukraine in exchange for support (TG)

• Argentine President Milei caught up in Memecoin scandal, triggering calls for his impeachment (FT)

• South Korea mulls record $249.3bn trade policy financing to aid exporters amid tariff headwinds (RT)

• India will continue to cut import taxes in response to Trump's tariff threats (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Canada January core inflation accelerates to 2.1% from 1.8% in December (BBG)

• German ZEW investor confidence improved by the most in two years ahead of election (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Cleanaway reports 1H25 NPAT up 13% to US$94m vs. $96.2m consensus, interim dividend up 14% to 2.8 cents, FY25 EBIT tracking towards midpoint of prior guidance (CWY)

• Corporate Travel reports 1H25 underlying EBITDA down 23% to $77.4m vs. $72.6m consensus, interim dividend down 41% to 10 cps, new client wins of $880m TTV at 14-Feb vs. FY target of $1.0bn (CTD)

• Fletcher Building reports 1H25 net loss of $134m (1H24: -$120m), no interim dividend, cost-out programme ahead of plan but trading conditions remain challenging, esp in businesses more heavily exposed to the residential sector (FBU)

• Goodman Group to launch $4bn capital raise, reports 1H25 operating profit up 8% to $1.22bn, reaffirms FY25 EPS growth of 9% (GMG)

• Iluka Resources reports full-year underlying NPAT down 33% to $231m, declares final dividend of 4 cps (ILU)

• IperionX awarded $47.1m by US DoD to secure US titanium supply chains, proceeds to expedite the Titan Project in Tennessee (IPX)

• James Hardie reports Q3 net income down 15% to $154m vs. $147.7m consensus, reiterates H2 and full-year guidance (JHX)

• NAB reports Q1 unaudited cash NPAT of $1.74bn, small decline in net interest margins (NAB)

• Light & Wonder acquires Grover Gaming’s Charitable Gaming assets for $850m plus earn-outs of up to $200m, upfront consideration implies multiple of 7.7x and expected to be highly accretive (LNW)

• MinRes reports 1H25 underlying NPAT loss of $196m, statutory loss of $807m including $352m of post-tax impairment charges related to Bald Hill, Onslow Iron volumes cut to 8.8-9.3Mt vs. prior 10.5-11.7Mt (MIN)

• Star Entertainment turned down second informal proposal from holder Bruce Mathieson to acquire Gold Coast Property (AFR)

• Westgold Resources in advanced discussions to sell Lakewood Mill gold processing facility (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

Solid breadth overnight, with a few sectors such as gold, energy and pockets of tech outperforming. A long, long list of reporters today. So far, nothing stands out as a massive beat or miss, besides MinRes.

BROKER MOVES

• ARB Corp upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $37 from $36 (JPM)

• ARB Corp upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $45.50 from $43.80 (MQG)

• Bluescope downgraded to Underperform from Buy but target up to $23 from $22.70 (BofA)

• Monadelphous Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $16.10 from $13.50 (JARD)

• Seek upgraded to Outperform from Hold; target up to $28 from $21 (CLSA)

• Select Harvests downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $5 from $4.40 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 19 Feb: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) – $2.25, Domain Holdings (DHG) – $0.02, GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.042

• Thu 20 Feb: JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $1.70, Teaminvest Private Group (TIP) – $0.015

• Fri 21 Feb: Amotiv (AOV) – $0.185, ASX (ASX) – $1.112, Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $0.30, GWA Group (GWA) – $0.075, Lendlease (LLC) – $0.06

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Aspen Group (APZ), Atturra (ATA), Cobram Estate Olives (CBO), Carindale Property (CDP), Cosol (COS), Corporate Travel (CTD), Cedar Woods (CWP), Cleanaway (CWY), Cyclopharm (CYC), Dronesheild (DRO), Data#3 (DTL), Emeco (EHL), Generation Development Group (GDG), Goodman Group (GMG), Hansen Technologies (HSN), Iluka Resources (ILU), Jumbo Interactive (JIN), Lycopodium (LYL), Mount Gibson Iron (MGX), Peet (PPC), Retail Food Group (RFG), St Barbara (SBM), Stockland (SGP), Service Stream (SSM), Santos (STO), Step One Clothing (STP), Southern Cross Electrical (SXE), The Lottery Corp (TLC), Vault Minerals (VAU), Vicinity Centres (VCX), Ventia Services (VNT) 

• AGMs: Technology  One (TNE) 

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade (Jan)

• 6:00 pm: UK Inflation (Jan)

• 12:30 am: US Building Permits, Housing Starts (Jan)