Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 higher, Gold prices hit yet another all-time high

ASX 200 futures are up 16pts (+0.18%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher, with a last minute rally boosting benchmarks from intraday lows

• A few downbeat catalysts including looming US government shutdown, US-China relations back in focus

• Gold prices surged another 2% to record highs, copper prices jump and oil prices dipped on OPEC+ concerns

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 slightly higher after a late-session bounce (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, bouncing off intraday lows in the last hour of trade

• Gold prices surged almost 2%, setting another record close and rallying past US$3,800/oz

• Follow up from yesterday’s catalyst including looming US government shutdown, US-China relations back in focus as Chinese Commerce Ministry voices objections to export controls and challenges around Taiwan

• Overall, no major shifts in recent market drivers such as sideways action around record highs, easing Fed rate cut expectations, strong Q4 seasonality, positive earnings revisions and stagflation fears

• Goldman Sachs expects global equities to rally into year-end, citing a resilient US economy, supportive valuations and dovish Fed (BBG)

• Credit market activity raises concerns on Wall Street, as frothy conditions and sudden bankruptcies unsettle investors (WSJ)

• Goldman Sachs reports heightened hedge fund activity in Chinese equities, reversing 2021's "uninvestable" market sentiment (BBG)

• US junk bond market set to cap off $51bn in volume in September, fifth-busiest month on record (BBG)

• Prolonged government shutdown could lift prices for longer-dated Treasuries, says Citi (BBG)

• OPEC+ will likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137K bpd at its next meeting on Oct-5, oil prices fall 3% (BBG)

STOCKS

• Toyota global sales climb in August thanks to US growth despite Trump's tariffs (YF)

• PG&E unveils $73 billion spending plan to meet surging AI energy demand (RT)

• Carnival upgrades annual profit forecast on strong cruise demand though high costs remain a concern (RT)

• OpenAI announces Instant Checkout feature, partnership with Etsy, Shopify (CNBC)

• Beyond Meat shares hit a fresh record low after convertible debt exchange offer (RT)

• Cannabis companies rise after Trump's post suggests cannabidiol could benefit senior healthcare (RT)

TARIFFS

• EU and Japan confident in securing a 15% cap on US tariffs for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber (BBG)

• Trump reiterated call for furniture tariffs, saying he would impose "substantial tariffs" on any country not making its furniture in the US (RT)

• Trump tightens export controls on Chinese companies to make it harder for China to develop advanced semiconductors (FT)

• Switzerland agree with US it will not manipulate Swiss franc after Dollar fell 12% vs. Swiss franc since Trump trade war (FT)

• Switzerland offers to invest in US gold refining industry in effort to lower 39% tariff (BBG)

• President Xi has asked that the White House officials to declare it opposes Taiwanese independence (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Williams says upside inflation risks have ebbed and it made sense to cut rates in September (BBG)

• Fed’s Musalem says policy currently sits between modestly restrictive, still open minded about future potential cuts though Fed must be cautious as there’s little room before policy becomes too loose (BBG)

• Cleveland Fed's Hammack expresses concern over persistent inflation, arguing challenging time for monetary policy (CNBC)

• Hawkish split at BOJ lifts pressure on dovish Governor Ueda to expedite rate hikes, prospects of an October move on the rise (RT)

• BOJ board member Noguchi signals growing support for interest rate hike, citing progress toward 2% inflation target (BBG)

• RBA expected to hold rates at 3.6% amid tight job market and renewed inflation concerns (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Trump to meet with Democratic congressional leadership as government shutdown looms (ABC)

• Labour Department won't release Friday's key jobs report, other data if government shuts down (CNBC)

• China's industrial profits rebounded in August despite economic slowdown fears, aided by a crackdown on cost competition (Reuters)

• China's Communist Party to hold Fourth Plenum from 20-23 Oct to outline the 15th Five-Year Plan (SCMP)

• Eurozone businesses show improved sentiment in September as US-EU tariff agreement reduces export uncertainty (WSJ)

• Spain receives credit rating upgrades from Fitch, Moody's and S&P (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• CSL CFO Joy Linton to retire, effective 7 October, will remain with the company for a period to ensure an orderly transition, Chief Strategy Officer Ken Lim appointed CFO (CSL)

• Lindian Resources to adopt owner-operator mining model for its Kangankunde Rare Earths Project, mining execution costs expected to fall by approx 30% (LIN)

• Newmont CEO Tom Palmer to retire, President & COO Natascha Vijoen appointed as successor from 1-Jan 2026 (NEM) 

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Another massive session for the gold price, surging almost 2%. It's worth noting that most of this price move took place between 12-4 pm on Monday, so most local gold miners have already priced in the gains. You're more likely to see a modest open and possible fade, as opposed to further gains in today's session. Nevertheless, gold is going absolutely nuts.

• Copper: Big session for copper, with prices up 3% to US$4.91/lb. This drove a strong response for the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) and likely translate to some upside for local names like Sandfire, 29Metals etc.

• Energy: Sizeable pullback for oil prices overnight on the news that OPEC+ may look to further boost production in the coming months. Likely to see downward pressure on names like Woodside, Karoon and Beach Energy.

BROKER MOVES

• Capricorn Metals upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $13.00 from $10.50 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 30 Sep: Genusplus Group (GNP) – $0.036, Staude Capital Global Value Fund (GVF) – $0.033, Tasmea (TEA) – $0.06

• Wed 1 Oct: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – $0.19, Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.33

• Thu 2 Oct: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.35, Cosol (COS) – $0.012, Imperial Pacific (IPC) – $0.07, London City Equities (LCE) – $0.025, Wam Strategic Value (WAR) – $0.03

• Fri 3 Oct: Steamships Trading Company (SST) – $0.128

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Beach Energy (BPT), Pengana Capital Group (PCG), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN), Boom Logistics (BOL), Data3 (DTL), Sports Entertainment Group (SEG), EDU Holdings (EDU), K2 Asset Management Holdings (KAM), Mercury NZ (MCY), Vitura Health (VIT), Echelon Resources (ECH), HMC Capital (HMC), Viva Energy Group (VEA), Guzman y Gomez (GYG).

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI), Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Building Permits (AUG)

• 11:30 am: China NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI (SEP)

• 2:30 pm: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 3.60%)

• 10:00 pm: Germany Inflation (Sep)

• 12:00 am: US JOLTs Job Openings (AUG)