Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 falls from record highs + Block, Newmont, Yancoal earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 16pts (+0.19%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 retreated from all-time highs, spooked by poor Walmart guidance and Trump tariffs

• Local sharemarket set to open higher after falling 2.7% in the past three sessions

• Another long list of results, key reporters include Block, Newmont, QBE insurance, Telix and Yancoal

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US benchmarks lower, off worst levels but largely lower week-to-date

• Relatively uneventful session – Walmart was the big story after its underwhelming Q4 earnings beat and softer-than-expected guidance, Trump also added levies on lumber and forest products into the mix

• Goldman Sachs flags possibility of market correction in near term due to weaker flows (BBG)

• Surge in retail flows to speculative pockets of the market may signal tail end of bull market (BBG)

• Citigroup sees limited US stock gains amid Trump policy risks (BBG)

• VIX call surge sparks volatility squeeze fears (BBG)

STOCKS

• Alibaba (+8.0%) posts sharp profit hike in December due to strength in its Cloud Intelligence and eCommerce businesses (CNBC)

• Walmart (-6.5%) Q4 revenue and EPS beat but stock up 15% year-to-date and 80% in the past twelve months, FY26 revenue growth guidance of 3-4% missed consensus of 4.2%, while EPS guide was a ~8% miss (BBG)

• Palantir dips 5.2% after new stock sale plan by CEO Alex Karp (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump's tariff plans stir inflation fears at Federal Reserve (RT)

• Fed weighs pausing balance sheet cuts amid debt ceiling risks (RTs)

• ECB's Stournaras sees rates dropping to 2% in 2025 (BBG)

• BOJ to raise rates once in 2025 to 0.75%, poll predicts (RT)

• PBOC holds lending rates steady amid trade tensions (RT)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Trump's tilt toward Putin shatters Europe's transatlantic trust (POL)

• Ukraine, Europe rally behind Zelenskiy against Trump's pro-Russia attacks (TG)

• Trump says new China trade deal possible, eyes wide-ranging deal with China involving increased purchases of US goods, investments in the US and nuclear security (BBG)

• Trump expands tariff plans to include lumber (RT)

ECONOMY

• UK consumer confidence hits new low under Labour amid tax hikes and price fears (BBG)

• Australia's unemployment edges up to 4.1% after RBA rate cut (HS)

ASX TODAY

• Block Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $757m (2.3% beat vs. consensus), Q1 guidance of $430m EBIT (12.5% beat), 2025 EBIT guidance of $2.10bn (11% beat) (XYZ)

• Domain 47.4m -share block trade crosses at A$4.20/share, representing ~ 7.5% of the company (DHG)

• Domain set to receive takeover offer at $4.20 a piece, as Macquarie Capital client referred to as an “undisclosed strategic buyer” raids shareholder register (AFR)

• Guzman Y Gomez reports 1H25 revenue growth of 23% to $578m, net profit of $7.3m, first 7 weeks of 2H25 Australia comp sales up 12.2%, guides to 31 restaurant openings in Australia for FY25 (GYG)

• Mayne Pharma to be acquired by Cosette Pharmaceuticals for $7.40 cash per share (MYX)

• Newmont 2024 EPS up 122% to $3.48 vs. GSe $2.83, final dividend of 25 US cps, 2025 attributable production guidance of 5.9moz vs. prior guidance 5.6moz (NEM)

• PWR Holdings reports 1H25 NPAT $4.1m vs. guidance $3.2-3.7m (PWH)

• QBE Insurance 2024 underlying NPAT up 26.9% to US$1.72bn vs. Citi ests US$1.65bn, full-year dividend of 87 cps vs. 77 cps ests, guides to 2025 GWP growth in mid-single digits (QBE)

• Telix Pharmaceuticals 1H25 NPAT up 860% to $49.9m, FY25 revenue guidance of $1.18-1.23bn vs. $1.02bn consensus, R&D expenditure to be up 20-25% compared to FY24 (TLX)

• Yancoal reports full-year NPAT down 33% to $1.22bn, issues fully-franked final dividend of 52 cps (~9% yield), output likely lower in 1Q25 due to mine plan sequencing (YAL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Nickel, copper, lithium strength: All three overnight ETFs gained 2-3% overnight

• Newmont, QBE and Telix: All four results and guidance tracking ahead of consensus.

• Block: Q4 results, Q1 and FY guidance all appear to be tracking ahead of consensus. Yet its NYSE shares are down around 6% after hours.

• Yancoal: The long-awaited dividend has been declared. Yancoal sold off aggressively last reporting season after the Board chose to pause dividends in pursue of M&A. The market will be pleased to see dividends back on the table. Let's see how this trades after the gap up

BROKER MOVES

• Auckland International Airport downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to NZ$8 from NZ$8.2 (JARD)

• Bega Cheese downgraded to Hold from Outperform; target up to $6.25 from $5.35 (CLSA)

• Nanosonics upgraded to Add from Hold; target up to $4.50 from $3.75 (MORG)

• Qube upgraded to Positive from Neutral; target of $4.35 (E&P)

• Ridley Corp downgraded to Hold from Outperform; target cut to $2.35 from $2.70 (CLSA)

• Sonic Healthcare upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target up to $28.50 from $26 (BofA)

• Telstra Group downgraded to Hold from Buy; target up to $4.35 from $4.30 (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 21 Feb: ASX (ASX) – $1.112, Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $0.30, GWA Group (GWA) – $0.075, Lendlease Group (LLC) – $0.06, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.019, Amotiv (AOV) – $0.185

• Mon 24 Feb: BSP Financial Group (BFL) – $0.401, Contact Energy (CEN) – $0.141, Hansen Technologies (HSN) – $0.05, Humm Group (HUM) – $0.013, Infomedia (IFM) – $0.022, Ryder Capital (RYD) – $0.045, Santos (STO) – $0.162, Step One Clothing (STP) – $0.044, Vicinity Centres (VCX) – $0.06

• Tue 25 Feb: AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.23, Amcor (AMC) – $0.204, Challenger (CGF) – $0.145, Deterra Royalties (DRR) – $0.09, Downer EDI (DOW) – $0.108, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06

• Wed 26 Feb: Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – $0.30, Hearts and Minds Investments (HM1) – $0.08, The Lottery Corporation (TLC) – $0.08

• Thu 27 Feb: Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.03, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.454, Ignite (IGN) – $0.035, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.25, Shape Australia Corporation (SHA) – $0.10, Ventia Services Group (VNT) – $0.106

• Fri 28 Feb: AMP (AMP) – $0.01, Corporate Travel Management (CTD) – $0.10, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.219, Macquarie Group (MQGPE) – $1.58, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Euroz Hartleys (EZL)

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Accent Group (AX1), AMA Group (AMA), Austal (ASB), BCI Minerals (BCI), BetMakers Technology Group (BET), Codan (CDA), Coast Entertainment Holdings (CEH), Gold Road Resources (GOR), Guzman y Gomez (GYG), Hazer Group (HZR), Inghams Group (ING), Latitude Group Holdings (LFS), Lindsay Australia (LAU), Michael Hill International (MHJ), Peter Warren Automotive (PWR), QBE Insurance (QBE), Ramelius Resources (RMS), Resolute Mining (RSG), Rural Funds Group (RFF), Spirit Technology Solutions (ST1), Superloop (SLC), Supply Network (SNL), Vysarn (VYS)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:00 am: Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (FEB)

• 10:30 am: Japan Inflation Rate (JAN)

• 6:00 pm: UK Retail Sales (JAN)

• 8:00 pm Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (FEB)