Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 caps off best week since Nov-23, Gold runs to US$3,200

ASX 200 futures are up 18pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks finished higher overnight, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting best week since 2023

• Gold continued its unprecedented surge, rallying past US$3,200 and sending most US gold miners up 3-5%

• US-China trade tensions continued to escalate, with Beijing increasing tariff rate on US goods to 125%

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended higher to finish near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US stocks finished higher and near best levels – S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged best weekly performance since Nov-23 and Nov-22 respectively

• Upside largely driven by oversold technicals and positioning dynamics, market also assured by Fed assurance that it will step in if needed

• Headlines were mixed, with US March PPI cooler-than-expected offset by a plunge in US consumer confidence and surge in inflation expectations as well as unrelenting escalating in US-China trade tensions

• First quarter earnings season kicked off with better-than-expected results from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock (BBG)

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+7.29%), S&P 500 (+5.70%), Dow (+4.95%), Russell 2000 (+1.82%) 

• Gold prices rallied 6.5% last week, marking its best performance since March 2020

• US Dollar Index down 3% this week to a ~3 year low and US 30-year yields up over 40 bps, the biggest weekly backup since the 1980s (AX) 

• Dollar status as safe haven under threat from US trade barriers (FT)

• Treasury selloff amplified by concerns US debt shifting from safe haven to risk asset (NYT)

• Investors pull US$15.6bn form US bond funds last week, most since Dec- 22 (RT)

• Hedge funds reverse oil exposure, cut net long exposures in Brent by most on record, WTI longs lowest since 2009 (BBG)

• BofA's Hartnett says sell S&P rallies until Fed cuts rates, or US-China trade war de-escalates (BBG)

STOCKS

• Apple and Nvidia among biggest winners by Trump exemption on some Chinese-produced goods (BBG)

• Netflix testing new OpenAI-powered search technology (BBG)

• Five Below asks vendors to turn away products in China waiting for shipment to US amid escalating US-China trade war (BBG)

• Stellantis Q1 shipments miss analyst expectations, down 9% to 1.2m units (WSJ)

• Logitech withdraws 2026 forecast amid tariff uncertainty, maintained 2025 sales forecast of 5.4 – 6.4% growth (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Collins suggests inflation risks could delay rate cuts (BBG)

• Fed Williams says economic uncertainty has grown amid tariffs and reduced immigration, expects inflation to rise to 3.5 – 4.0% (BBG)

• Fed Boston says the markets continue to function well and the Fed is not seeing any liquidity concerns, but prepared to intervene if needed (FT)

• RBA's Bullock downplays emergency rate cut calls, cites trade war impact as less severe than 2008 crisis (AFR)

TARIFFS

• China raises its tariffs on US imports to 125% from prior 84%, will no longer consider matching US tariffs and will “resolutely counterattack and fight to the end”, Xi Jinping announces first public comments on tariffs – asking EU to join China in opposing US bullying (BBG)

• Trump pledged to exclude Chinese smartphones, routers, chipmaking equipment, and certain laptops from reciprocal tariffs (FT)

• Trump to provide update on semiconductor tariffs on Monday (RT)

• Beijing ramping up non-tariff barriers against US, blocking key US agriculture and energy exports (PLT)

• UK suspends import tariffs on 89 products, announces £20bn increase in loan facility for exporters (FT)

• Trump's ongoing 25% tariffs on autos to increase industry costs by $100bn, raise new vehicle prices by $2-4k over next 6-12 months (CNBC)

• Vietnam hoping to get US tariff reduced to 22-28% range, prepared to clamp down on transhipment abuses (RT)

ECONOMY

• US March producer prices fell 0.4% month-on-month – the biggest drop since Oct-23 and well-below consensus for a 0.2% rise, due to lower energy prices (BBG)

• US April consumer sentiment plunges to 50.8 vs. 54.0 ests, the lowest since Jun-22 and one-year fwd inflation expectations surge to 6.7% vs. 5.0% a month ago (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Austal awarded $10.7m US navy order (ASB)

• Dexus and GPT considering a potential merger (The Aus)

• Gold Road intends to vote in favour of proposed acquisition of De Grey by Northern Star, company owns 17.26% of DEG (GOR)

• MinRes approached by LG Chemical regarding a stake in Wodgina, MinRes seeking at least $2bn which suitors view as too high (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodity strength: Another strong session for the resource sector. A few key movers overnight include: Copper Miners (COPX + 6.28%) after copper prices bounced 3.7% overnight, Gold Miners (GDX +5.36%) as gold prices soar past US$3,200 (although opened slightly lower on Monday) and Uranium (URA +4.9%) move will likely see a small gap up for local names.

• More bounce: Major benchmarks and stocks are signaling a potential bottom. US market showed strong breadth overnight, with the resources and tech sectors leading to the upside. While the low could be in place, this still does not rule out more volatility in the near-term.

BROKER MOVES

• Macquarie Group downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $191 from $224 (MS)

• Netwealth Group upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight but target cut to $29.75 from $31.25 (MS)

• Regis Resources upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $4.20 from $3.10 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 14 April: WAM Active (WAA) – $0.03, WAM Microcap (WMI) – $0.053

• Tue 15 Apr: SDI (SDI) – $0.015, WAM Research (WAX) – $0.05, Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company (SOL) – $0.44, Waterco (WAT) – $0.07

• Wed 16 Apr: Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015, The Reject Shop (TRS) – $0.12, WAM Capital (WAM) – $0.077

• Thu 17 Apr: None

• Fri 18 Apr: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: CAR Group (CAR), Cochlear (COH), Saunders International (SND) 

• Listing: None 

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.