Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Nasdaq down for a third-straight day, Copper and gold in freefall

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed as tech, energy and commodities underperformed, while the Dow and Equal-weight S&P 500 edged higher  

• Micron blew past estimates, revenue up 346% year-on-year to $41.5bn and Q4 guided near $50bn, shares up over 13% after hours 

• Commodities sold off, with gold (-2.6%) and copper (-2.2%) posting hefty declines

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed and near worst levels, with the S&P 500 fading early gains of 0.84%

• Stocks struggled to hold onto early gains after another day of weakness for momentum and AI-related pockets of the market

• Breadth was again pretty solid, with the Dow (off best levels) but within 0.3% of all-time highs and Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.71%) outperforming the cap-weighted benchmark by 81 bps 

• US 10-year yield fell 10 bps to 4.39% as oil prices slid, easing some of the pressure from the prior week's hawkish Fed projections 

• Another rough session for commodities as firmer US dollar and rising Fed-hike bets weighed on aluminium (-4.4%), gold (-2.6%), copper (-2.2%) and more

• Brent down 4.7% to US$73.37 a barrel, now back at pre-conflict levels and down 38% from 9-Mar high of US$119.50

• JPMorgan latest to raise year-end S&P 500 price target to 7,800 on earnings momentum (RT)

• Doncasters Group IPO more than 30x oversubscribed, now expected to price $1-2 above $28-32 per share marketing range (BBG)

• AI trade volatility flashing red on crowding, raising dot-com-era rout fears and prompting hedge funds to diversify (BBG)

• South Korean stocks swung between gains and losses Wednesday as caution grows over chip-earnings outlook (BBG)

• MSCI keeps South Korea in emerging markets, avoiding a formal review that could upgrade it to developed status (BBG)

• Micron Q3 FY26 record result, revenue up 346% year-on-year to $41.46bn, ~16% ahead of ests, adjusted EPS $25.11, Q4 revenue guided near $50bn, shares up ~13% after hours (CNBC)

• SK Hynix filed for a US listing to raise up to US$29.4bn via Nasdaq ADRs, trading expected July 10, ranking among the largest share sales ever (BBG)

• Qualcomm struck a deal to acquire AI software startup Modular for about US$3.9bn to bolster its data-center software stack (CNBC)

• Qualcomm also unveiled an AI data-center CPU and named Meta as its first major customer, pushing deeper into the server market (CNBC)

• Alphabet will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Verizon, effective before Monday's open, widening mega-cap tech's weight in the blue-chip index (CNBC)

• Cerebras shares fell about 16%, extending post-earnings losses as a sharp gross-margin compression warning overshadowed its revenue beat (TS)

• Trump posted on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz will carry no tolls, warning US-Iran talks would terminate immediately if Iran charges transit fees

• Trump and Iran give opposing statements on nuclear inspections (RT)

• Trump defends unfreezing funds for Iran, which will remain under US oversight and be limited to food and medicine (BBG)

• Rubio begins Middle East tour to reassure Gulf allies that Iran-deal concessions aren't excessive (RT)

• China looks to help Iran with post-war reconstruction with an eye on securing oil imports (NK)

• At least 20 tankers stuck in Persian Gulf for more than three months have exited Strait of Hormuz, oil shipments now ~4.8M bpd (CNBC)

• Oil exports from UAE already at ~85% pre-war levels backed by pipelines, storage and alternative shipping routes (BBG)

• Lutnick signals Trump administration may act against state-subsidized Chinese robotics imports (POL)

• EU joins other US allies in Pax Silica pact aimed at strengthening AI-related tech supply chains (FT)

• China exports of tungsten to Japan almost at complete halt, magnet flows lowest since May 2025 amid diplomatic row (BBG)

• Bessent signals confidence in Fed's Warsh, expects inflation to ease as Iran conflict subsides (BBG)

• BOJ Governor Ueda says Japan risks inflation above 2% and will hike rates as needed (BBG)

• PBoC official hints at potential rate cut this year, but calls for targeted support for tech innovation and livelihoods (BBG)

• US May new home sales up 580,000 month-on-month vs. 640,000 ests, weakest headline increase since Jan-26, weighed by affordability constraints and upward pressure on mortgage rates (BBG)

• Japan May services PPI rises 3.3% year-on-year signaling widening inflation pressure (RT)

• Australian underlying inflation firms, reinforcing market-implied odds of one more RBA rate hike (BBG)

• MinRes to cease Lucky Bay operations and transition the project into care and maintenance, mine performance materially impacted by ongoing Middle East impact, non-cash impairment of ~$40m (MIN)

• Perenti CEO Vanessa Torres buys 100,000 shares on-market, lifts ownership by 50% to 150,000 shares (PRN)

• Ventia Services Group appoints Mark Ralston as CEO, effective 1-Sep, Ralston was most recently leading Ventia’s largest sector, Defence & Social Infrastructure (VNT)

• More commodity weakness: Another rough session for all-things commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (tracks metals, agriculture and energy) is now down 15.3% since its 13-May peak. Gold (-2.6%) now at its lowest since 10-Nov-25, copper (-2.2%) at a one-month low but now down 6% in the last two sessions, aluminium (-4.4%) has tumbled 17% since 2-Jun. This drove considerable weakness for overnight resource-related ETFs, with most (copper, gold, silver, nickel) down 3-4%. NYSE-listed Alcoa shares down 5.0% to a fresh year-to-date low, NYSE-listed BHP and Rio down 1.8% and 1.6% respectively.

• Energy tumbles: Brent down 4.7% to US$73.37, at pre-war levels but still up 20% year-to-date. This drove US airlines sharply higher, with the Jets ETF up 4.1%. Wouldn't be surprising to see names like Qantas and Virgin catch a bid this morning. The oil price dipped drove the US 10-year down 10 bps to 4.39%, but the 2-year edged 5 bps lower, so markets are really locked in on at least one 25 bp Fed hike this year.

• Jumbo Interactive downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $8.40 from $14.50 (Morgan Stanley)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 25 Jun: None

• Fri 26 Jun: Centuria Capital (CNI) – $0.052 

• Mon 29 Jun: APA Group (APA) – $0.305, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.048, Aspen Group (APZ) – $0.055, BWP Group (BWP) – $0.098, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.042, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Group (CHC) – $0.258, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.064, Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR) – $0.064, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.043, Cromwell Property Group (CMW) – $0.007, Dexus (DXS) – $0.177, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.052, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.042, Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) – $0.06, DPM Metals (DPM) – $0.041, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.022, GDI Property Group (GDI) – $0.025, Gemlife Communities Group (GLF) – $0.011, Goodman Group (GMG) – $0.15, GPT Group (GPT) – $0.122, Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ) – $0.092, Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, Mirvac Group (MGR) – $0.048, Reef Casino Trust (RCT) – $0.068, Region Group (RGN) – $0.072, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Stockland (SGP) – $0.162, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.043 

• Tue 30 Jun: Abacus Group (ABG) – $0.043, Abacus Storage King (ASK) – $0.031, Lowell Resources Fund (LRT) – $0.15, Ophir High Conviction Fund (OPH) – $0.352  

• Wed 1 Jul: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Graincorp (GNC) – $0.14
  

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Elders (ELD), Tasmea (TEA), Tower (TWR)

• Earnings: Ricegrowers (SGLLV)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate (Ests: 4.4% vs. 4.5% prior)

• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index

• 10:30 pm: US Durable Goods