Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Dow tanks on healthcare pullback, Houthi attacks drive Brent near US$100

In a nutshell:

• All three major US benchmarks finished lower after returning from Labor Day, and ended at worst levels

• US bond yields edged higher, still hovering near recent multi-year/decade highs ahead of important macro prints, August US PPI and CPI, which land on Thursday and Friday respectively

• Oil continued its nerve-racking ascent, with Brent up 2.0% to US$99.25 a barrel after Houthi drone and missile attacks halted operations at Saudi energy facilities

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished lower and at worst levels, adding to a second session of loses for all three

• Breadth was weak, with only Energy, Utilities and Real Estate sectors higher, and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-1.04%) underperforming the cap-weighted index by 46 bps

• US 10-year yield edged 1 bp higher to 4.79%, still sitting around Jan-25 highs

• Brent pushed 2% higher to settle at $99.23 a barrel, the oil has now gained 15% since 25 August

• Global energy equities hit an all-time high, with the iShares Global Energy ETF reaching its strongest level since inception in November 2001 (CNBC)

• LME three-month copper gained 1.3% to $14,703 a tonne in official open-outcry trade, a record and above Monday's peak, on tight supply outside the US and weak mine output (RT)

• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are lobbying S&P, Moody's and Fitch to grant OpenAI and Anthropic investment-grade ratings from listing, opening the $11.7tn corporate bond market (FT)

• The yen touched 152.89 per dollar, its strongest since February and beyond the peak of July's joint intervention, after firming roughly 4% in a week (RT)

• A rally in emerging market currencies and equities stalled as crude closed in on $100, halting a run that had been supported by a softer US dollar (BBG)

• Qualcomm signed Amazon as a data centre chip customer across multiple generations of custom inference silicon, issuing warrants over 25m shares at $161.26 apiece for a $4bn investment (BBG)

• Amazon's purchases and commitments under the Qualcomm agreement could total up to $60bn through September 2036, with the deal also covering optical connectivity to 1.6T (CNBC)

• GE Aerospace agreed to buy castings maker Consolidated Precision Products from Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners for $11.75bn, its largest deal as a standalone company (BBG)

• Amgen sank 10% on read-through to its Phase III olpasiran programme, with BMO Capital also cutting the stock to market perform on valuation after a 34% year-to-date run (YF)

• Boston Scientific fell 5.9% after saying an August cyberattack makes it unlikely to meet third-quarter and full-year guidance of 5.5% to 6.5% sales growth and adjusted EPS of $3.28 to $3.32 (YF)

• Intel rose sharply after Northland's Gus Richard upgraded the stock to outperform with a $120 target, citing server CPU shortages and the Terafab venture with Tesla and SpaceX (YF)

• GameStop Q2 revenue fell to $790.2m from $972.2m, above ests near $757m, with adjusted EPS of 27c in line and FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to more than $650m (YF)

• Enterprise software de-rated as investors priced OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra as a competitive threat, with ServiceNow off about 5% and Salesforce and Intuit each down roughly 4% (AG)

• Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks wounded at least 73 people at energy and industrial sites across Abha, Jazan, Najran and Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia (NPR)

• Saudi Arabia's energy ministry suspended operations at several oil facilities and utilities, with the Houthis claiming the 400,000 barrel a day Jazan refinery among the targets (TE)

• Riyadh has rerouted most crude through the Red Sea port of Yanbu since the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, leaving those flows newly exposed (CNN)

• Iran said an accord with Oman on a temporary safe route through Hormuz is in its final stages, a step that would tighten Tehran's grip on the waterway (BBG)

• The US military struck targets near Kharg Island, the loading point for roughly 90% of Iranian crude shipments, and the port city of Jask, extending Brent's advance after the US close (TE)

• Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones on Tuesday morning, wounding six, a day after envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited the capital (CNN)

• US average diesel prices set a record on Monday according to motoring group AAA, sharpening the pass-through from the Hormuz disruption into headline inflation (YF)

• Canada's retaliatory tariffs on about $20bn of US goods took effect just after midnight, with duties of 15% to 50% spanning steel, furniture, clothing and electronics (NBC)

• Just 20% of Americans approve of the tariffs on Canadian goods according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, while Canadian polling shows broad support for Prime Minister Mark Carney's stance (NBC)

• Anticipation of US tariffs on refined copper continues to pull metal into the United States and drain inventories elsewhere, a key driver of the LME record (BBG)

• Fed funds futures priced a 59% probability of a quarter-point hike at the 15 to 16 September FOMC meeting, with August PPI due Thursday and CPI on Friday (CNBC)

• Bank of England Governor said the UK economy is not close to recession and described recent data as broadly solid, while flagging a weakening labour market (FXDR)

• Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said domestic inflation pressures remain relatively contained, while MPC member Megan Greene warned persistently elevated oil prices pose an upside risk (FXDR)

• Barclays expects a 6 to 3 BoE vote to hold rate at 3.75% next week, with Greene, Mann and Pill dissenting, and sees risk skewed to more dissenters (RT)

• Traders now largely expect the Bank of Japan to lift rates 25 basis points to 1.25% at its 17 to 18 September meeting, with board member Hajime Takata saying the size of any move is not set in stone (RT)

• Westpac became the last of the big four to abandon its rate cut call, chief economist Luci Ellis now forecasting an RBA hike to 4.6% in November on household resilience and data centre spillovers (ABC)

• China's August exports rose 25.0% year-on-year to $401.44bn and imports climbed 28.2% to $282.36bn, widening the trade surplus to $119.09bn from $112.5bn in July (AP)

• BNP Paribas strategist Chi Lo said China remains highly competitive in technology exports, with electric vehicles, machinery and semiconductors driving shipments (AP)

• Japan's July nominal wages rose 4.7% year-on-year, the fastest since 1997 and well above the 3.8% expected, with base pay up 4.1% and real wages up 2.4% (BBG)

• Japan revised second quarter GDP growth up to an annualised 1.4% from a preliminary 1.1%, on stronger capital expenditure (JT)

• Australia's Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 5.2% in September against a 3.6% decline expected, reversing a 6.0% August gain (BP)

• Forrestania Resources locks in the operational backbone for its Lake Johnston and Edna May hub strategy, headlined by a 5-year Orica cyanide supply deal from 2027 plus haulage, lab and long-lead mill liner orders. Also signs an ore purchase agreement with First Au (FRS)

• Marimaca Copper hits 216m at 0.96% Cu and 7.2g/t Ag from 466m at Pampa Medina, including 62m at 2.20% Cu. Step-outs pushed the mineralised horizon 300m south and west (MC2)

• Sovereign Metals scoping study adds a monazite by-product at Kasiya for US$722m of pre-tax NPV8 uplift on just ~US$29m of incremental capex, a 151% IRR and 1.5-year payback. Maiden resource of 524.4Mt lifts total project NPV to US$2.9bn, PFS due 2027 (SVM)

• Viridis Mining and Minerals approved for a R$77.5m (~US$15m) BNDES facility over 16 years at ~4.8%, funding its Poços de Caldas processing centre and cutting remaining Colossus senior debt needs to ~US$280m (VMM)

• Oil stress: Brent is now up 15% in the last two weeks, and less than a dollar away from the symbolic US$100 level. Great for energy equities, not so great for everything else.

• Copper goes for a run: Copper continued to push towards record highs, up 1.0% overnight to US$6.78/lb (fading from session highs of 2.5%). Really seeing those tariff fears drive a massive shift of copper into the US, along with the usual drivers (constrained mine supply, AI demand and China recovery). This drove an outsized move for copper equities, with the Global X Copper Miners ETF up 4.1% overnight. NYSE-listed BHP shares rose 1.7%, TSX-listed Capstone Copper also rallied 7.6%. The strength for copper miners (and defensives) is probably why ASX futures are pointing to a positive start today.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 9 Sep: Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.003, Brambles (BXB) – $0.328, CSL (CSL) – $2.277, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.21, EVT (EVT) – $0.23, Genesis Minerals (GMD) – $0.05, Hearts and Minds Investments (HM1) – $0.1, IDP Education (IEL) – $0.06, IGO (IGO) – $0.05, IVE Group (IGL) – $0.09, LGI (LGI) – $0.014, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.3, Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) – $0.027 

• Thu 10 Sep: AMA Group (AMA) – $0.005, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, CTI Logistics (CLX) – $0.08, Freightways Group (FRW) – $0.199, Globe International (GLB) – $0.13, Infragreen Group (IFN) – $0.005, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.08, McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.7, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.016, Naos Small Cap Opportunities Company (NSC) – $0.013, Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC) – $0.03, NZME (NZM) – $0.025, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.63, Regis Resources (RRL) – $0.2, Sandfire Resources (SFR) – $0.35, SGH (SGH) – $0.32, Sky Network Television (SKT) – $0.141, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.061, Thorney Opportunities (TOP) – $0.017, Venus Metals Corporation (VMC) – $0.17, XRF Scientific (XRF) – $0.045

• Fri 11 Sep: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.435, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.035, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.17, PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund (PGF) – $0.075, WiseTech Global (WTC) – $0.123

• Mon 14 Sep: Chorus (CNU) – $0.256, Credit Corp Group (CCP) – $0.455, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.02, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.1, Saunders International (SND) – $0.01, Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN) – $0.076, WCM Global Growth (WQG) – $0.024

• Tue 15 Sep: Data#3 (DTL) – $0.182, Duratec (DUR) – $0.025, Guzman y Gomez (GYG) – $0.406, Lovisa Holdings (LOV) – $0.33, Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) – $0.15, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Qantas Airways (QAN) – $0.198, Ramelius Resources (RMS) – $0.03, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.011, Westgold Resources (WGX) – $0.1

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Reef Casino Trust (RCT) – $0.066

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Metcash (MTS) 1 pm

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Chinese inflation rate