Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to open at record levels, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another all-time high

ASX 200 futures are up 27pts (+0.31%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit another fresh all-time high

• A shortened US session, US markets also closed tonight for Independence Day

• ASX 200 to push record levels, though the lack of a full US session and absence tomorrow will likely result in lower volumes

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher and finished near best levels, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting yet another record close

• US markets closed early overnight and off tomorrow for Independence Day

• US weekly recap: Russell 2000 (+3.52%), Dow (+2.30%), S&P 500 (+1.72%), Nasdaq (+1.62%)

• Today’s big story – the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ is set to pass the House and move to Trump’s desk, just in time for his preferred 4-Jul deadline

• Investors optimistic on buying the dip, despite tariff concerns and potential earnings season downturn (BBG)

• UK markets rattled after finance minister's emotional display, political uncertainty looms (CNBC)

STOCKS

• Tesla deliveries slump, faces sales decline despite China rebound, needs strong second half (RT)

• OpenAI and Oracle strike $30bn deal for data centers, expanding AI capabilities (BBG)

• Japanese automakers absorb Trump's US tariffs, price hikes remain modest (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump eyes Powell replacements amid interest rate cut push, Fed chair's silence fuels speculation (BBG)

• BOJ's Takata signals possible rate hike amid US trade progress, inflation target near (WSJ)

• Central banks hedge geopolitical risks, increase gold holdings as dollar dominance faces challenges (BBG)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• US softens stance, imposes lower 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, easing trade tensions (RT)

• US eases chip software export restrictions to China, Synopsys and Cadence working to restore access (BBG)

• US, India trade teams strive for tariff deal amid farm, dairy disagreements, after Vietnam deal (RT)

• Trump's tariff threat puts Japan on defensive, may compromise trade stance (NK)

• Chinese official expresses optimism about US ties, warns of Taiwan, South China Sea flashpoints (BBG)

• China criticises Trump's trade agreement with Vietnam, escalating tensions (BBG)

• South Korea's Lee says US tariff deal "difficult," seeks economic revival amid trade tensions (NK)

ECONOMY

• US June nonfarm payrolls up 147,000 month-on-month vs. 118,000 consensus, unemployment rate fell to 4.1% vs. 4.3% consensus (BBG)

• China's services sector growth slows to nine-month low amid weak demand, US trade concerns (RT)

• Eurozone services sector returns to modest growth in June, demand remains weak (RT)

• UK private sector unexpectedly accelerates, sparking hopes for stronger Q2 economic growth (BBG)

• Australia's services sector surges in June, inflation softens boosting business confidence (BBG)

ASX TODAY

A relatively quiet morning so far. Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• ASX to push record levels: ASX set to mark its seventh record high of the year. Overnight, every S&P 500 sector was green except Materials (flat after a sharp rally over the last few days). No substantial gainers on the ETF watchlist, most sub-sectors just up 0.5-1.0%. Given the early US close, it'll likely be a quiet, record setting session.

BROKER MOVES

• Pro Medicus downgraded to Hold from Buy but target up to $320 from $280 (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 4 Jul: The Reject Shop (TRS) – $0.77

• Mon 7 Jul: Collins Foods (CKF) – $0.15

• Tue 8 Jul: None

• Wed 9 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFP), Fisher & Paykel (FPH)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.