ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 4th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, July 4. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

ASX 200 closes at eighth record high of the year

[4:22 pm] The ASX 200 closed 7 pts higher (+0.08%) to eke out its eighth record high of the year.

The Evening Wrap will be out shortly, so stay tuned for a full run down of today's session.

Shares eye record close

[3:15 pm] The ASX 200 looks set to close just shy of a record closing high of 8,597.75 points.

In the middle of the afternoon it's down 2 points or 0.03% to 8,595 points over a seesaw session.

By Tom Richardson.

Morgan Stanley says Domino's hurt by food delivery apps

[3:00 pm] Broker Morgan Stanley says Domino's pizza has lost a competitive advantage in tech because food delivery apps are now competing with it.

"Their competitive advantage going forward will be 'being the biggest strongest pizza company in the market, with advertising power, store network, and execution," the broker said.

The group's chairman Jack Cowin has suggested it may join the delivery platforms in what would be a change of strategy.

Morgan Stanley has a $24 price target on the stock.

By Tom Richardson.

Silver price tops $US37

[2:30 pm] The silver price is near a 15-year high above $US37 an ounce this afternoon and has jumped around 20% in the past six months. Silver has industrial uses as well as being a precious metal.

The gold price at $US3341 an ounce on Friday is around 90 times the silver price. Over much of the past five years the gold to silver ratio has traded around 80 to suggest the silver price still has some catching up to do. However, this is far from an exact science.

By Tom Richardson.

Cannaccord Genuity keeps spec buy on Brightstar Resources

[2:06 pm] The specialist capital markets resources group lowered its price target on emerging gold play Brightstar Resources to $1.40 from $1.50 and maintained a spec buy rating.

Shares fetched 46 cents on Friday.

By Tom Richardson.

Barclays lifts uranium price forecasts

[1:54 pm] Barrenjoey partner Barclay's has lifted its long-term uranium price forecast to US$90lb. It said government policy announcements in Europe and the US bode well for demand.

It also initiated research coverage on ASX-listed Deep Yellow with a neutral rating and $1.80 per share price target.

By Tom Richardson.

Westpac sticks to July rate cut call

[1:44 pm] Australian borrowers will be pleased to hear Westpac's economics team is sticking to its call the RBA cuts rates in July.

It also expects another cut in November and two more in the first half of 2026.

By Tom Richardson.

Materials sector takes a breather

[12:39 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is trading 1.0% lower, after rallying 4.9% in the previous two sessions. The sector is showing life thanks to a broad range of catalysts including:

• Stable iron ore prices, while copper prices rallied to a three month high of US$5.1/lb, aluminium hit a three-month high of US$2,595 a tonne

• Hopes of fresh policy stimulus in China after a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on Tuesday, according to Westpac Economics

• Growing rate cut expectations (two 25 bp cuts from the Fed by year-end, and three for the RBA)

• CBA selloff driving rotation into BHP

The sector is experiencing a pullback today, led by names like South32 (-2.3%), Rio Tinto (-1.7%) and BHP (-1.5%)

Orica awarded $432m headstart funding

[12:13 pm] Orica’s Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub (HVHH) received $432 million in conditional funding under Round One of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency's competitive Hydrogen Headstart program.

The HVHH, located at Kooragang Island, will produce 12 tonnes of renewable hydrogen daily via a 50MW electrolyser in its first phase, reducing Orica’s natural gas use by 7.5% and cutting emissions equivalent to removing 26,500 cars annually.

RPMGlobal soars on trading update

[12:05 pm] Missed this one (released right before market open). Mining software solutions company RPMGlobal surged 11.5% after opening 3.5% higher on a strong second-half trading update:

• RPM sold $64.5 million of software (total contracted value) in the second half of FY25

• This brings full-year TCV sales to $100.8 million, up 30.9% year-on-year

• As at 1 July 2025, the total value of annual recurring revenues was $69.1 million

While the stock lacks analyst coverage and consensus estimates, the headline numbers appear strong at face value.

A2 Milk briefly pops on China subsidy speculation

[11:24 pm] A2 Milk briefly rallied as much as 4.1% after China considered subsidies for young children, to boost birthrates.

Most of the gains took place between 11:06 am and 11:14 am. The gains have since eased to just 1.7%.

Small caps making moves

[11:05 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.

Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

Argosy Minerals halted

[10:18 am] Shares in the lithium producer was halted this morning in relation to a proposed capital raising. The halt will remain in place until Tuesday, 8 July.

This marks a rather tragic capital raise, after the stock pumped 78.9% on Thursday, likely off the back of the broader lithium sector rally.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Argosy Minerals (AGY)

ACCC will not opposed Cleanaway's bid for Contract Resources

[9:47 am] The ACCC said it will not opposed Cleanaway's proposed acquisition of Contract Resources Group.

"The review found Contract Resources primarily provides specialist industrial services, such as catalyst handling, which Cleanaway does not supply," notes the ACCC media release.

Some of the key highlights about the takeover include:

• Cleanaway to pay $377 million for 100% of the company

• Contract Resources FY25 EBITDA is forecast tot be $52 million

• Transaction values Contract at 7.3x EV/FY25e EBITDA, falling to 4.9x when factoring in annual synergies

• Acquisition forecast to be high-single digit EPS accretive, including synergies

• Fully debt funded

Brokers run the ruler on Pro Medicus

[9:37 am] Pro Medicus announced two US contract wins on Thursday, including:

• UCHealth was the company's second largest deal on record, includes its full imaging stack and its first publicly disclosed cardiology module win.

• Franciscan Missionaries of Our Lady Health System was a renewal, but highlighted a more than doubling the original contract, continued the trend of converting legacy deals into higher-value, multi-product agreements.

Pro Medicus shares finished the session 7.8% higher, closing at a record $307.39.

Here are some of the key takeaways from brokers this morning:

• Morgan Stanley: Raised target to $320 from $310; Maintains overweight. Sees PME’s SaaS-like contracts with low churn, strong renewals, UCHealth’s longevity, and cardiology adoption driving significant growth and LTV upside.

• Bell Potter: Raised target to $320 from $280; Downgraded to hold from buy. Notes US hospital market momentum and cardiology validation but tempers near-term earnings expectations due to FY26 delays and valuation re-rating.

• Goldman Sachs: Target unchanged at $310; Maintains buy. Views UCHealth as strategic, cardiology as a catalyst, and PME’s ability to manage complex deployments, with renewals and market leadership supporting premium pricing.

Monadelphous Group wins $100 million WA contract

[9:28 am] Monadelphous Group has announced new contracts in the energy sector valued at more than $100 million, including:

• Shell Crux Contract:Hook-up and commissioning of Shell’s Crux platform, located 620 km northeast of Broome, Western Australia, supporting Shell’s Prelude FLNG facility, with work set to complete in late 2026.

• Inteforge Extension: Extended master goods agreement with Origin Energy by two years to supply wellsite equipment for Australia Pacific LNG in Queensland, continuing a partnership ongoing since 2015.

Overall, an incremental win for the $1.7 billion market cap company.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Monadelphous Group

Capricorn Metals hits upper end of FY25 guidance

[9:18 am] Capricorn Metals reported that its Karlawinda Gold Project (KGP) produced 32,216 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter, taking annual gold production to 117,076 ounces for FY25.

This result falls within the upper end of its FY25 production guidance of 100-120,000 ounces, while costs are expected to fall within AISC guidance of US$1,370-1,470 an ounce.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Capricorn Metals (CMM)

Citi remains bullish on wealth platforms, but downgrades ratings after recent run

[9:14 am] Following strong year-to-date performance, Citi has downgraded both Hub24 and Netwealth from Buy to Neutral.

The two platform providers have surged 29% and 19% respectively this year, pushing their valuations to elevated levels. Both companies now trade at premium multiples well above historical averages - Hub24 at 63x forward price-to-earnings and Netwealth at 62x.

• Hub24 downgraded to Neutral from Buy; but target up to $89.80 from $71.50

• Netwealth downgraded to Neutral from Buy; but target up to $33.65 from $27.30

The higher price targets reflect improved medium-term earnings assumptions, as Citi expects both platforms to capitalise on opportunities in adjacent markets.

Citi downgrades The Lottery Corp

[9:07 am] A double downgrade from Citi could place downward pressure on The Lottery Corp today. Here are the key takeaways:

• Downgraded from Buy to Sell; target price cut to $5.00 from $5.60.

• FY25 EBIT is projected to fall ~13% to $628 million, with results due on August 20, 2025.

• Powerball like-for-like (LFL) sales dropped ~9% to June, worse than the previously estimated ~4%, with weakness persisting into 1H26.

• Oz Lotto saw strong performance with two $70 million jackpot runs in 2H25, potentially cannibalising Powerball sales alongside increased player interest.

• Anticipated Powerball game changes in late FY26 are expected to focus on a 20% price increase, driving only 10% turnover growth in FY27, lower than market expectations.

Bell Potter: Upgrades, downgrades and rating changes

[9:04 am] A few changes coming out of Bell Potter this morning:

• Hub24 retained Buy; target up to $100 from $75

• Jumbo Interactive retained Hold; target down to $11.00 from $11.10

• Lynas Rare Earths retained Sell;target down to $6.05 from $6.25

• Pro Medicus downgraded to Hold from Buy; target up to $320 from $280 (downgrade due to valuation)

US services PMI misses consensus but new orders expanded

[9:02 am] June US ISM Services Index was 50.0, up from 49.9 in May but below market expectations of 51.0. Despite the below consensus print, there were several interesting data points from the survey:

• New Orders Rebound: New Orders Index moved back to expansion at 51.3, up from 46.4, signaling a recovery in demand.

• Employment Contracts: Employment Index fell to 47.2 from 50.7, marking contraction for the third time in four months.

• Prices Remain Elevated: Prices Index dipped to 67.5 from 68.7, but May and June levels are the highest since November 2022.

• Business Activity Gains: Business Activity Index rose to 54.2 from 50.0, reflecting stronger activity despite broader concerns.

• Negative Sentiment: Respondents noted slow growth, economic uncertainty, tariff impacts, and sluggish sales due to affordability challenges.

• Factory Orders Surge: May factory orders rose 8.2% month-over-month, meeting expectations and rebounding from April’s 3.9% decline.

• Durable Goods Strength: New orders for manufactured durable goods increased in five of the last six months, reaching the highest level since July 2014.

US jobs data well-ahead of consensus

[8:59 am] The US jobs report was unexpectedly strong overnight, notable data points include:

• Strong Payroll Growth: Nonfarm payrolls surged by 147,000, surpassing nearly all forecasts.

• Unexpected Unemployment Drop: Unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, defying all 77 Bloomberg economists’ predictions, driven by people leaving the labor force.

• Government Hiring Surge: Government sector added 73,000 jobs, led by state and local hiring, despite federal jobs declining for the fifth consecutive month.

• Weak Private-Sector Gains: Private payrolls grew by only 74,000, below the 100,000 estimate, marking the weakest growth since October’s hurricane and strike disruptions.

What's driving stocks?

[8:55 am] Another record setting session on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.83% and 1.02% respectively.

• US market closed early overnight and off tomorrow for Independence Day.

• Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' passed the House, will move to Trump's desk right before its preferred 4-Jul deadline. The bill extends most of the individual and estate provisions from his 2017 tax cuts and jobs act, which was largely set to expire in 2025.

• US jobs data was unexpectedly strong, with a jump in payrolls and fall in unemployment rate. This drove bond yields sharply higher, with the 10-year up 6.5 bps to 4.34%.

• Bessent warned trade partners that tariff levels could return to 2-Apr levels if they're not careful in negotiations

• China also vowed retaliation if that deal hurts its interests, criticising the recent US-Vietnam deal

Good morning!

[8:45 am] Happy Friday! The S&P/ASX 200 futures are up  27pts (+0.31%), suggesting the market will open at record highs. This follows another record setting session on Wall Street, though a shortened session due to Independence Day.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.