Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 turns lower as US-Iran peace in limbo, Oil prices jump

ASX 200 futures are down 63 pts (-0.70%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower and finished near worst levels, down for a second straight day

• Markets weighed by lack of Iran de-escalation as ceasefire expiry date is fast approaching

• Brent rallied 5.5% to a one-week high of US$99.02, driving a classic yields up, commodities down and stocks down session

• Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh speaks at the Senate Banking Committee, faced significant questioning on his finances and compliance, Warsh discussed his view on a new Fed inflation framework

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Wed 22 Apr 26, 8:20am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	7,064	-0.63%
Dow Jones	49,149	-0.59%
NASDAQ Comp	24,260	-0.59%
Russell 2000	2,765	-1.00%
Country Indices
Canada	33,808	-1.61%
China	4,085	+0.07%
Germany	24,271	-0.60%
Hong Kong	26,487	+0.48%
India	79,273	+0.96%
Japan	59,349	+0.89%
United Kingdom	10,498	-1.05%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,721.34	-2.07%
Copper	6.01	-0.45%
WTI Oil	89.67	+2.57%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7154	+0.05%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	75,552	-0.60%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,232	-0.54%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.292	+0.99%
VIX	19.5	+3.34%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 briefly higher in early trade, spent the session trending lower to close near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished lower and near session worst levels, opening in the green before sliding through the afternoon as Iran ceasefire talks faltered ahead of Wednesday's expiry

• A classic stocks down, yields up and oil up after doubts around Iran de-escalation, with VP Vance yet to leave Washington as Iran participation in peace talks remains an open question

• Brent rallied 5.5% to a one-week high of US$99.02 a barrel, as with prior oil price spikes, this drove downward pressure on most metals, including silver (-3.7%), gold (-2.1%) and copper (-0.4%)

• JPMorgan raises S&P 500 year-end target to 7600, citing AI-driven earnings and improved sentiment (RT )

ENERGY

• Strait of Hormuz largely devoid of commercial traffic on Tuesday (BBG)

• Trump invokes Defense Production Act to direct federal funding for energy projects (BBG)

• Senior IRGC commander warns Gulf states they should "say goodbye to oil production" in the region if they allow US strikes on Iran from their territory (AP)

• US oil refiners benefit from Iran war, gaining from soaring fuel prices and cheap crude access (FT )

IRAN

• Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, even as plans for a fresh round of talks fell apart, maintains blockade (BBG)

• Iran's foreign minister says blockading Iranian ports is an act of war, and thus a violation of the ceasefire (WSJ)

• VP Vance's planned trip to Islamabad for second-round Iran talks remains on hold as Tehran has not confirmed attendance, with Witkoff and Kushner consulting at the White House (NBC)

• Trump's social media posts and contradictory messaging fueling Iranian mistrust (AX)

• US says seized Iranian-linked tanker traveling to China deemed to contain dual-use items that could be used by military (RT)

STOCKS

• UnitedHealth Q1 FY26 adjusted EPS $7.23 beat ests by ~9%, raised FY26 EPS guidance above $18.25, shares up ~7% (YF)

• GE Aerospace Q1 FY26 revenue up 25% to $12.4bn, adjusted EPS $1.86 beat ests by ~16%, FY26 op profit guide held at $9.85-10.25bn, shares fell 5.5% on Mideast headwinds (BBG)

• 3M Q1 FY26 GAAP sales up 1.3% to $6.0bn, EPS $1.23 down 40% year-on-year, reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guide of $8.50 to $8.70, shares down ~2% (3M)

• Amazon to invest a further $5bn in Anthropic with up to $20bn more tied to commercial milestones, deal struck at a $350bn valuation, Anthropic to spend over $100bn on AWS over 10 years (BBG)

• Wedbush's Dan Ives flagged the Apple succession as "mixed", saying the sudden timing of Cook's move to executive chairman creates questions for the AI strategy pivot (YF)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• Trump says he will "remember" companies including Apple and Amazon that file for refunds on the more than $160bn of IEEPA tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court (CNBC)

• Trump signals an Anthropic-Pentagon deal is "possible" after White House meetings, easing the AI lab's blacklisting as a defense supply-chain risk (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh tells Senate Banking Committee he wants "regime change" at the Fed including a new inflation framework, fewer FOMC meetings and a smaller balance sheet (CNBC)

• Warsh says Trump never asked him to commit to lower rates and rejected being a "human sock puppet", but Republican Senator Tillis vowed to block confirmation until the DOJ probe of Powell ends (YF)

• Trump said he would be "disappointed" if Warsh does not cut rates "right away", reinforcing market focus on Fed independence ahead of Powell's May 15 term expiry (CNBC)

• Warsh suggests AI productivity gains could give the Fed more room to lower rates while still containing inflation, partially walking back his earlier hawkish stance (NPR)

ECONOMY

• US March retail sales jumped 1.7% month-on-month versus 1.4% expected, the largest gain since January 2023, with the control group up 0.7%, more than three times the consensus (BBG)

• Germany's ZEW economic sentiment slumped to -17.2 in April from -0.5 in March, the lowest reading since December 2022 and well below expectations of -5.0, on Mideast war fallout (BBG)

• Taiwan's export orders surge fastest in 16 years, indicating strong AI product demand amid global trade tensions (BBG)

• South Korea exports up 49% in first 20 days of April, underpinned by massive increase in semiconductor shipments (BBG)

• New Zealand inflation remains elevated, firming expectations of RBNZ rate hike by July (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Iluka reports Q1 Z/R/SR production of 47.6kt or ~18% below ests, logistics costs are on the rise but zircon sand prices in Q2 to increase by ~US$45/t (ILU)

• Lindian Resources secures $11.6m facility to support working capital for Kangankunde Rare Earths Project (LIN)

• National Storage REIT shares suspended from trading at Tuesday’s close as Brookfield takeover comes into effect (NSR)

• South32 reports Q3 production, with Worsley Alumina production of 886kt about 4% below ests after production was temporarily suspended following a fatality last quarter (S32)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Stocks down, energy up: Energy was the only S&P 500 sector that traded positive, though up just 1.3%. Our overnight ETFs show a very heavy session for the resource space, with Gold, Copper, Nickel and Uranium all down 4-6%. Yield sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Utilities were also the worst performing S&P 500 sectors. Surprisingly, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF edged 0.44% higher (but down from session highs of 2.95%), so clearly still some relative strength/buying for battered software names.

BROKER MOVES

• Hub24 downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $94.50 from $92.75 (Macquarie)

• Macquarie downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $218.50 from $221.37 (Goldman Sachs)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 22 Apr: Shriro Holdings (SHM) – $0.02

• Thu 23 Apr: Steamships Trading Co (SST) – $0.181  

• Fri 24 Apr: None

• Mon 27 Apr: None

• Tue 28 Apr: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Gowing Bros (GOW), Nine Entertainment (NEC), Ridley Corp (RIC), Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Scentre Group (SCG)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 4:00 pm: UK Inflation