Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 slips from record highs, Gold continues to run hot

ASX 200 futures are down 31pts (-0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly lower, though the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.12%) outperformed on solid breadth

• A defensive session, with sectors like Real Estate (+0.81%), Utilities (+0.54%) and Staples (+0.36%) trading higher

• Oil prices snapped a four-day losing streak, gold continues to rally into record territory

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended lower, closed slightly off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, slightly off worst levels

• Breadth was positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.12%) in positive territory, outperforming the official benchmark by 67 bps

• Gold briefly rallied as much as 1.2% to touch US$3,791 but finished the session slightly higher

• Oil prices snapped a four-day losing streak amid a potential Russian diesel export ban and Ukrainian attacks on Moscow’s oil refineries

• Today’s big story – A bit of a reversal, with Tech and Discretionary stocks leading to the downside, while defensives like gold, treasuries, Real Estate, Utilities and Staples fared better 

• S&P 500 advances nearly 3% above Bloomberg's year-end forecast, defying Wall Street expectations (BBG)

• Weaker US dollar, cheaper valuations expected to drive outperformance of Asian equities over US peers (BBG)

• "Circularity" dynamic receiving significant attention after Nvidia and OpenAI agreement, companies using balance sheet to support startups and customers, who then use those funds to purchase AI chips (WSJ)

• US IPO market set for busiest month since Nov-21 (BBG)

STOCKS

• Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project’s $2.3bn DoE loan under review, government concerned the mine will struggle amid cheaper Chinese lithium (BBG)

• Lithium Americas shares surge 75% after hours, Trump administration reportedly looking for equity stake in the company (RT)

• OpenAI and Nvidia announce strategic partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems (BBG)

• Silicon Valley executives alarmed by Trump's H-1B visa changes (FT)

• Mercedes contract manufacturer planning to cut almost a third of its employees (BBG)

• ASM International downgrades annual revenue forecast, flagging weaker demand for semiconductor equipment (WSJ)

• Oracle appoints Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs to drive infrastructure deals and AI integration (BBG)

• Meta to gradually roll out AI-driven dating assistant as part of its Facebook platform (TV)

TARIFFS

• US lawmakers urge more military dialogue with China during rare visit but say rare earth issue remains (BBG)

• Chinese buyers book 10 cargoes of soybeans from Argentina, continue to eschew US producers (RT)

• Trump's H-1B visa overhaul risks complicating US-India trade talks (BBG)

• US and India signal willingness to progress negotiations following talks on Monday (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed officials cautious on prospects of rate cuts amid inflation risks, while Miran argues rate should be in mid-2% range (RT)

• BoE's Pill warns of worsening gilt market risks in longer-run by slowing down balance sheet reduction program (FT)

• OECD says Fed can cut rates three more times despite above-target inflation (FT)

• Sweden's Riksbank cuts rate to 1.75%, signaling no further reductions through 2028 (BBG)

ECONOMY

• OECD raises global growth forecast to 3.2% for 2025, citing resilience in emerging markets despite tariff risks (CNBC)

• US government shutdown possibly a week away, no agreement on extending government spending beyond 30 Sep (BBG)

• China floods countries with goods as exports hit record high, raising trade tensions (BBG)

• Eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace in 16 months, Germany outperforms, Frances struggles (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• A pretty quiet session so far in terms of headlines and corporate updates

• Audinate reaffirms full-year outlook at annual report, expects FY26 gross profit growth of 13-15% while operating costs to rise 25% (AD8)

• KMD Brands reports FY25 sales growth of 1% to $989m but underlying EBITDA down 65% to $17.7m and net loss of $28.3 million (KMD)

• Lynas completes share purchase plan, raising $182m vs. initial target of $75m (LYC)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Australia Inflation: Today's August CPI print to report headline inflation of 2.9% vs. 2.8% in the previous month. AMP economists expect three 25 bp RBA cuts in November, February and May. They believe further Fed rate cuts could pressure the RBA, as a gap between Aussie and US rates may add pressure to the Australian dollar, which tends to dampen growth and inflation. Will be interesting to see if today's CPI has any impact on the rate outlook.

• Everlast Minerals: This microcap mineral sands explorer listed on Tuesday, 20 cent IPO vs. 31 cent close. Pretty solid price action. There are ~10 companies set to list by the end of October.

BROKER MOVES

• Charter Hall Long WALE REIT downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $4.70 from $4.40 (CIT)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 24 Sep: Genesis Energy (GNE) – $0.065, IMDEX (IMD) – $0.01

• Thu 25 Sep: Ambertech (AMO) – $0.006, PRL Global (PRG) – $0.02, Salter Brothers Emerging Companies (SB2) – $0.02, Teaminvest Private Group (TIP) – $0.015, Verbrec (VBC) – $0.001, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.006

• Fri 26 Sep: Ramsay Health Care (RHCPA) – $3.075, SRG Global (SRG) – $0.03, Veris (VRS) – $0.002

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Aurizon Holdings (AZJ), Contact Energy (CEN), Dusk Group (DSK), Ebos Group (EBO), MA Financial Group (MAF), Motorcycle Holdings (MTO), Regis Healthcare (REG), Suncorp Group (SUN), Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ), Woodside Energy Group (WDS), NZME (NZM)

• Earnings: Pantoro Gold (PNR), Tuas (TUA)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug)