Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 slips ahead of CPI report + Life360, SGH results

ASX 200 futures are down 13pts (-0.14%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks gave back early gains to close slightly higher

• Relatively quiet overnight session, with markets in waiting mode ahead of tonight's inflation report

• Earnings season continues to ramp up, with numbers from SGH, Seven West Media, Life360 and more

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks faded early gains to finish lower, near worst levels

• Gold prices tumbled after Trump confirmed the metal will not be tariffed

• Today’s big story – Markets largely in waiting mode ahead of tonight’s US inflation report, the likelihood of a September rate cut currently sits at ~90% amid recent string of weak economic data and dovish Fedspeak 

• BofA monthly fund manager survey shows record number of fund managers see US stocks as overvalued, and EM undervalued (BBG)

• US companies set to break stock buyback records in 2025, led by tech and banks (WSJ)

• Stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings to give equities more room to run over coming weeks (YF)

• Citi and UBS lift S&P 500 year-end targets to 6,600 and 6,100 respectively (RT)

• Treasury yields slip ahead of US inflation data, a major catalyst for Fed rate decision (BBG)

• Investors turn defensive, betting against high-priced corporate credit amid growth concerns (RT)

STOCKS

• Ford announces $2bn investment in a Kentucky assembly plant aimed at rolling out affordable EVs (CNBC)

• Paramount secures $7.7bn deal becoming exclusive US broadcaster of Ultimate Fighting Championship (FT)

• Apple plans to launch an ultra-low-cost MacBook, production slated for late 2025 (DT)

• Big Tech's data centre boom sparks political battles across the US as AI race heats up (POL)

• Lithium stocks surge after CATL suspends Chinese mine operations boosting market confidence (BBG)

TARIFFS

• US to levy 15% fee on some Nvidia, AMD chip sales to China in unprecedented move as both companies surrender revenue for export licence  (FT)

• Trump signs executive order extending China tariff deadline by 90 days (CNBC)

• India hopes trade talks with the US will continue even as the US hiked tariffs on its exports to 50% (RT)

• Trump says gold imports won't face US tariffs, ending market confusion after federal ruling (BBG)

• Bessent says US aims to finalise trade deals by October (BBG)

• Taiwan seeks better tariff rates from US after Trump's 20% levy, negotiations ongoing (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Vice Chair Bowman continues to forecast three 25 bp rate cuts by year end (FED)

• RBA widely expected to rate cut, Governor Bullock remains cautious but further easing expected (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China's CPI fall amid sluggish demand, trade uncertainty, and persistent deflationary pressures (RT)

• UK manufacturers' confidence surges to nine-month high after US tariff agreements ease concerns (LT)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Life360 announces COO Lauren Antonoff as CEO, co-Founder Chris Hulls to transition to Executive Chairman (360)

• Seven West Media reports FY25 NPAT of $57m (vs. $56.3m ests), guided to FY26 earnings to exceed $161m (SWM)

• Southern Cross Electrical Engineering awarded services and manufacturing contracts with Queensland Energy, Newmont valued at over $110mm (SXE)

• SGH reports FY25 NPAT $927.7m (vs. $922.4m ests), full-year dividend up 17% to 62 cents per share, targeting low-to-mid single digit EBIT in FY26 (SGH)

• Vulcan Steel guides to FY25 NPAT NZ$14-16m, includes NZ$3m impairment from asset sales, management said “overall daily sales activity has shown signs of stabilisation” (VSL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• RBA decision: RBA is widely expected to cut today at 2:30 pm AEST. Commentary could be a driver of market volatility.

• Reporting season: Life360 reported better-than-expected Q2 numbers but CEO is stepping down (owns ~2.2% of the company), SGH numbers look better-than-expected but guidance weak.

• Lithium day two: Massive day for lithium stocks on Monday, with Pilbara Minerals up 19.6% and Chinese lithium carbonate futures hitting limit up.

BROKER MOVES

• IRESS downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target remains $9.00 (JPM)

• JB Hi-Fi upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $118 from $112 (MQG)

• JB Hi-Fi upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $112 from $109 (UBS)

• MinRes downgraded to Sell from Neutral but target up to $37.40 from $26 (MIN)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 12 Aug: Dominion Income Trust (DN1) – $0.595

• Wed 13 Aug: ResMed (RMD) – $0.065

• Thu 14 Aug: Korvest (KOV) – $0.50, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Reckon (RKN) – $0.025, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $2.268, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.002

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Life360 (360), SGH (SGH), Seven West Media (SWM)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: NAB Business Confidence (Jul)

• 2:30 pm: RBA Interest Rate Decision (Ests 25 bp cut to 3.60%)

• 10:30 pm: US Inflation (Jul)