ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 12th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, August 12. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

Business confidence continues to lift

[3:43 pm] Australian business confidence improved further in July, and now just above its long run average, according to NAB Economics.

• Business confidence rose 2 points to +7 index points in July, now sitting just above its historical average after months of improvement

• Queensland remains strongest by significant margin in trend terms, while SA and WA saw large monthly increases but remain weakest for confidence; Victoria showing recent improvement in both metrics

• Purchase costs up 1.4% quarterly equivalent, labour costs rose to 2.1%, and product prices accelerated to 0.9% with retail prices hitting 1.1%

• Survey aligns with consumer spending indicators showing Q2 momentum improvement, but highlights persistent cost and pricing challenges that could complicate the economic outlook

Schroders take on RBA cut

[3:33 pm] “The latest round of forecasts in the Statement of Monetary Policy is more dovish than expected, with growth revised lower, and inflation to finally reach 2.5%, the middle of the target band, by December 2027. This is despite a steady unemployment rate of 4.3% over the projected horizon," said Kellie Wood, head of fixed income, Schroders.

“We retain our view that the market is fully priced for the RBA’s easing cycle and prefer to be owing interest rate risk further out the curve.”

ASX 200 nears 8900 as bank stocks surge

[2:55 pm] The ASX 200 is closing in on the 8900 mark, hitting fresh record highs on the back of a financials rally after the RBA left the door open for more rate cuts.

Lower rates typically boost bank earnings by stimulating housing and business activity. The VanEck Australian Banks ETF (ASX: MVB) climbed 1.06% to an intraday peak of $41.05, with ANZ leading gains — up 2.61% to $32.05. Morgan Stanley sees the bank’s late-September/early-October strategy day, its first under new CEO Nuno Matos, as a potential share price catalyst.

Investors will be watching for updates on management changes, cost growth, ANZ Plus strategy, capital management, and institutional banking profitability. ANZ trades at a larger-than-usual discount to peers (~13–14x P/E), with a re-rating likely contingent on an EPS upgrade cycle.

By Vishal Teckchandani

RBA cuts rates by 25 bps as expected

[2:33 pm] RBA lowered cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, bringing total easing to 75 basis points since start of year, with unanimous Board decision.

Here are the key takeaways from the RBA announcement:

• Trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.7% in June quarter (as expected in May), with headline inflation at 2.1%, showing continued moderation toward the 2-3% target midpoint

• Unemployment rose to 4.3% in June, averaging 4.2% for the quarter (in line with May forecasts), though labour underutilisation remains low and availability constraints persist across sectors

• More clarity on US tariffs suggests "extreme outcomes likely to be avoided," though trade policy developments still expected to weigh on Australian activity and inflation

• Despite the cut, RBA stressesheightened uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply, positioning policy to "respond decisively" to international developments if needed

ASX 200 hovering record highs

[1:48 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 1.5 pts (+0.02%), likely in waiting mode ahead of the RBA decision at 2:30 pm AEST.

A rather conflicting session where strength from Discretionary (+0.52%), Staples (+0.51%) and Telcos (+0.36%) has been offset by weakness from Industrials (-0.87%) and Tech (-0.31%).

Tuas surges on M1 acquisition

[12:01 pm] Tuas shares rallied as much as 48% in early trade ($8.19), currently up 32% ($7.31) after successfully raising $385 million at $5.24 per share (4.9% discount).

The proceeds will be used to fund its acquisition of M1 Limited for S$1.43 billion on a debt-free and cash-free basis.

M1 Limited is a Singaporean digital network operator that provides a range of communication services to both retail and enterprise customers. It primarily generates revenue through mobile services, fixed services and handset and equipment sales.

Citi was positively surprised by the company's decision to pursue M1, highlighting a number of positive takeaways:

• Attractively priced at 7.3x trailing EBITDA

• EPS and growth acceleration in Singapore

• Further broadening customer base with an established enterprise platform

Defence stocks rip higher

[11:45 am] Droneshield and Electro Optic Systems continue their V-shape moves after a recent 2-3 day breather.

Droneshield is trading 5.8% higher ($4.18) and on track to close at record highs. The stock is now up 54% in the past month and 458% year-to-date.

Electro Optic Systems is trading at the highest level since early 2021, up 9.4% today ($5.45), lifting its year-to-date return to 320%.

Audinate tumbles on Jefferies downgrade

[11:45 am] Audinate shares dipped as much as 10% ($5.82) in early trade after Jefferies analysts downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and slashed their target price by 21% to $7.50.

SGH FY25 earnings call highlights

[11:26 am] SGH wrapped up their FY25 earnings call at 11:00 am AEST. Here are the key takeaways:

• WesTrac parts pricing expected to rise slightly in 1H26, followed by a moderate decline in H2.

• Coates’ utilisation improving gradually, currently at a 60% rate, with a positive outlook maintained.

• Services revenue growth in FY26 supported by strong customer activity despite some earlier deferments.

• Boral’s volume outlook for FY26 remains steady, with potential upside from a second-half residential market recovery.

• M&A strategy stays disciplined, focusing on organic growth and leveraging strong operating cash flow.

• EBIT growth at SGH expected to be low to mid single digits in FY26.

Chinese lithium futures extend gains

[11:22 am] Chinese lithium carbonate futures opened 7.30% higher (86,850 yuan), currently up just 4.3% (84,620 yuan).

Lithium stocks are trading broadly lower after experiencing sharp 15-20% rallies on Monday. Notable decliners include Liontown (-4.8%) and Pilbara Minerals (-3.0%).

SGH dips 9% on weaker-than-expected guidance

[10:51 am] SGH shares are currently trending 9% lower after the company's FY26 guidance missed market expectations.

SGH guided to low-to-mid single digit EBIT growth for FY26 vs. market expectations of 8.3%.

Analysts take on Car FY25 results

[10:25 am] Monday was a wild session for CAR Group, with the stock closing around breakeven after opening 5.0% lower. Its up 4.0% today after a relatively position view from analysts.

• RBC Capital – Upgraded to Outperform, target maintained at $41.00 – Quantitative guidance improves earnings visibility, with confidence in double-digit growth and margin contraction seen as a deliberate investment to drive long-term gains.

• CLSA – Hold maintained, target maintained at $35.00 – FY26 seen as a reset year with product investments viewed positively for the long term; margins expected to recover after the investment phase.

• JPMorgan – Overweight maintained, target maintained at $39.50 – Clearer guidance welcomed, with stronger North America price leverage and LATAM growth supporting outlook; margin softness linked to targeted reinvestment.

JB Hi-Fi bounces after Monday's selloff

[10:22 am] JB Hi-Fi is trading sharply higher (+5.6%), recouping some of yesterday's losses. The stock is now down 3.2% in the last two sessions.

Life360 earnings call highlights

[9:38 am] Life360 wrapped up its Q2/half-year earnings call at 8 am AEST. Here are the key takeaways:

• GPS-enabled Pet Tracker on track for launch later this year, fully integrated into the Life360 app, with details held back to ensure a strong holiday-season debut.

• Place Ads launched in Q2 to enhance the in-app experience by sending location-based messages. Designed as high-value units to drive long-term advertising revenue growth.

• Advertising impact remains positive, with no material churn observed. Approach stays member-first while continuing proof-of-concept testing and refining based on market needs.

• Pet trackers positioned as a paid product, treated as part of marketing and customer acquisition costs.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to dip slightly in Q3 due to timing of growth investments.

• Strategic goals include reaching 150 million monthly active users, surpassing $1 billion in revenue, and achieving a 35% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Life360 Q2 tops expectations, lifts full-year guidance

[9:30 am] Nasdaq-listed Life360 shares rallied 4.4% post-market after the company reported first-half numbers that broadly topped market expectations. Here are the key numbers for the first-half:

• Revenue up 34.3% to $219m vs. $214m ests (2.3% beat)

• Monthly active users up 25% to 88m vs. 88.6m ests (0.6% miss)

• Paying circles of 2.53m vs. 2.5m ests (in-line)

• EBITDA of $10.1m vs. $3.3m loss a year ago (36.6% beat vs. $7.4m ests)

• NPAT of $11.4m vs. $20.7m loss a year ago (142% beat vs. $4.7m ests)

Life360 also upgraded its full-year guidance, including:

• Revenue between $462-482m vs. prior guidance of $450-480m and $467.5m ests (1.0% beat at the midpoint)

• Subscription revenue of $363-367m vs. prior guidance of $355-365m

• Hardware revenue narrowed to $42-50m vs. prior $40-50m

• Adjusted EBITDA of $72-82m vs. $65-75m vs. $72.9m ests (5.6% beat at the midpoint)

JB Hi-Fi analyst takeaways

[9:23 am] JB Hi-Fi shares opened slightly higher on Monday but finished the session down 8.4%. The company delivered FY25 numbers that were slightly ahead of market expectations, issued a special $1.00 per share special dividend and guided to a higher dividend payout ratio moving forward. Sales for the first month of FY26 (July), also showed accelerating year-on-year growth. However, the selloff may reflect stretched multiples (28x heading into the result) and the lack of FY26 upgrades.

• UBS – Upgraded to Neutral, target raised from $109.00 to $112.00 – Result beat forecasts, prompting a valuation uplift; market share gains expected to sustain momentum, with confidence in execution despite earlier-than-expected CEO transition.

• Macquarie – Upgraded to Outperform, target raised from $112.00 to $118.00 – Share price fall seen as overdone; medium-term sales outlook lifted on replacement/upgrade cycles, with higher payout ratio seen as prudent capital allocation.

• JPMorgan – Neutral retained, target raised from $98.00 to $100.00 – Q4 sales boosted by Nintendo Switch 2; underlying growth to ease as comps toughen, while sustainable margins offset by higher capex potentially limiting extra dividends.

Southern Cross Electrical Engineering wins over $110 million in contracts

[9:18 am] Southern Cross Electrical Engineering has received a range of contract wins totalling over $110 million, tis includes deals with Energy Queensland, Newmont, WeBuild PSA and FIP Electrical.

Previous contract wins have typically pushed SCEE shares higher:

• 17-Jun-25: $70m contract win, shares up 5.1%

• 16-Dec-24: $100m contract win, shares down 2.3%

• 11-Dec-24: $125m contract win, shares up 8.9%

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

SGH FY25 earnings in-line, FY26 guidance soft

[9:08 am] SGH delivered a relatively solid FY25 result, though its FY26 guidance flags a material miss against expectations.

• Revenue up 1% to $10.7bn vs. $10.7bn ests (in-line)

• EBITDA up 6% o $2.04bn vs. $2.06bn ests (1.0% miss)

• EBITDA margin up 88 bps to 19.1% vs. Macquarie ests of 19.0% (10 bp beat)

• NPAT up 9% to $924m vs. $922.4m ests (0.2% beat)

• Full-year dividend up 17% to 62 cents per share vs. Macquarie ests of 63 cents per share (1.6% miss)

• FY26 EBIT guidance of low-to-mid single digits vs. consensus 8.3% and Macquarie ests of 11.6%

Overall, a few under the hood metrics like net debt/EBITDA (less than 2x vs. 2.1x ests) and margins were strong. But FY26 guidance falls short of both consensus and Macquarie estimates. Not a good look.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: SGH (SGH)

Vulcan Steel guides to soft FY25

[8:58 am] Vulcan Steel says they're seeing "encouraging signs that the downward trend is beginning to level out. In the last three months, our overall daily sales activity has shown signs of stabilisation, suggesting that the business may be moving towards a more consistent footing."

"Our expectations are for daily sales volume to remain broadly stable at low levels in H1 of FY26, before firming in H2 of FY26."

The company guided to the below numbers for FY25:

• EBITDA of NZ$106-109m vs. $109m ests (1.4% miss)

• NPAT of NZ$14-16 million, which includes a NZ$3 million impairment relating to asset selldowns

• Net debt position eased to NZ$232m from NZ$242m

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Vulcan Steel (VSL)

Life360 names COO Lauren Antonoff as CEO

[8:53 am] Life360's CEO and co-founder Chris Hulls is stepping down after leading the company for almost two decades.

Current Chief Operating Officer Lauren Antonoff, who joined the company in 2023, will now take the helm.

Hulls will transition to Executive Chairman and plans to remain actively involved in Life360's vision and product innovation. He currently owns approximately 5.0 million shares plus 2.0 million options.

Fed Bowman calls for three 25 bp rate cuts

[8:51 am] Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said she continues to forecast three 25 bp rate cuts by year end.

Bowman cited labour market concerns, flagging "signs of fragility" though also noting the US may be near full employment.

The market is currently pricing in a ~90% likelihood of a rate cut in September, according to CME's Fedwatch tool.

Source: US Federal Reserve

US earnings season winds down

[8:48 am] US earnings season is coming to an end, with just over 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q2 results. Here are some of the key numbers:

• Q2 blended growth rate at 11.8% vs. 4.9% expected; 81% of companies beat EPS estimates (vs. 77% one-year average) with earnings 8.4% above consensus (vs. 6.3% average)

• Companies citing elevated macro uncertainty, delayed deals, and low-end consumer weakness, but strategists highlight strong guidance trends, tariff mitigation, and reduced recession talk

• Plenty of positive structural drivers, including AI capex momentum, productivity gains, high breadth of revenue beats, cash tax savings from policy measures, and FX tailwinds providing additional support to earnings outlook

BofA fund manager survey highlights

[8:45 am] Bank of America's latest Global Fund Manager Survey said investors are the most bullish since February, with global equity allocations most overweight in six months. Here are the key takeaways:

• Cash levels continued to linger around historical lows of 3.9% (which is a contrarian sell signal)

• Investors are 16% underweight US equities (best positioning since February) yet a record 91% view US stocks as overvalued

• Net 41% of investors expect global economic weakening (up from 31% in July), signalling growing pessimism about fundamental economic conditions despite bullish positioning

• Long Magnificent 7 remains the most crowded trade, though 52% don't see an AI bubble and 55% believe AI is already enhancing productivity

• Trade war recession fears remain the top tail risk at 29% (down 9 percentage points), while inflation preventing Fed rate cuts is gaining attention as a new primary concern

S&P 500 slips, fades early gains

[8:43 am] Major US benchmarks opened slightly higher but gave back early gains, closing the session near lows.

S&P 500 fades early gains to close slightly lower (Source: TradingView)

Good morning!

[8:34 am] ASX 200 futures are down 13pts (-0.14%) after a relatively weak overnight lead, where major US benchmarks gave back early gains to close slightly lower.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.