Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 notches record close, Tech and software stocks set to rally

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Russell 2000 closed at all-time highs, while the Nasdaq closed at a two-month high and ~1% off its 2-Jun record

• US producer prices decelerated, with September Fed hike bets falling to less than 40% (from ~50% prior)

• US 2-year yield now down 20 bps since 23-Jul to a one-month low, buoying rate-sensitive and consumer-facing sectors like Real Estate, Staples and Financials

• Software and memory names headlined gains, Workday surged 17.7% on a report Silver Lake is circling a buyout, while other household names like Atlassian, Intuit, Adobe, Salesforce and more all rose 4-6%

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels buoyed by evidence of moderating inflation

• US July PPI printed cooler-than-expected, easing Fed September rate hike bets to ~40% (from ~50% prior)

• Rate-sensitive 2-year yield fell 5 bps to 4.14%, the lowest since 16-Jul  

• Breadth was positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.75%) recording a third straight all-time high

• Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors higher, led by Communication Services and Real Estate

• Wall Street traders drove equities higher and bond yields lower as more evidence of moderating inflation reinforced bets the Fed will hold next month, sending the S&P 500 to a record (BBG)

• S&P 500 topped 7,800 intraday for the first time before easing off its high late, with advancers beating decliners by roughly 1.8 to one (MW)

• Russell 2000 set a record above 3,060 and is up more than 23% so far in 2026, a sign the rally is broadening beyond mega-cap tech (TV)

• US Treasury sold US$25bn of 30-year bonds at 5.216%, the highest yield since 2001, following a 10-year sale a day earlier at the priciest financing since 2007 (BBG)

• JPMorgan’s David Kelly said he sees a US disinflation trend from lower tariff costs and oil eventually flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• Cisco shares fell 8.4% despite beat and raised guidance, as a hardware-heavy mix pushed gross-margin guidance below consensus and Piper Sandler called the outlook conservative (BBG)

• Workday closed up 17.8% at $206.45 after Reuters reported Silver Lake has held months of talks about a takeover, with no guarantee of a deal, a move that erased the stock's year-to-date loss and added roughly $8.6bn of market value (BBG)

• SanDisk surged after its investor day set fiscal 2028 to 2030 targets of mid-to-high teens revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margin near 80%, operating margin near 75% and adjusted free cash flow margin around 50% (RT)

• Netflix rose about 5.4% after Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a new 3.15 million share position worth roughly $2.1bn, arguing the streamer has effectively won the streaming wars with more than 325 million subscribers (CNBC)

• Maersk Q2 revenue up 20% to $15.8bn and underlying EBITDA of $3.0bn smashed ests of about $2.04bn, prompting a second full-year guidance upgrade of 2026 as ocean freight rates rose 22% and vessel utilisation held at 96%, sending shares up ~9% (BBG)

• Adyen jumped 16.5% to lead the STOXX 600 after the Dutch payments group, whose clients include Spotify and Microsoft, lifted its annual revenue growth forecast (RT)

• Chinese AI developer DeepSeek said it will lift flagship V4 model prices by more than four times from 16 August, narrowing the gap with larger rivals (TS)

• Anthropic is said to be in talks to acquire AI startup Decart for about US$6bn (BBG)

• Iran again denied US claims it controls the Strait of Hormuz, with its Persian Gulf Strait Authority saying the waterway stays blocked until Iran's conditions are met (CNBC)

• War Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US Navy can maintain its blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely by rotating ships in and out of the region, speaking to reporters in Panama (Fox)

• Iran said Trump has miscalculated on the Strait of Hormuz and warned it could prolong the war, disputing his claim that Washington is in total control of the waterway (CNN)

• Reuters cited a senior Iranian official saying there had been no progress on reviving the June interim peace deal, with no talk of an extension (CNBC)

• IEA warned that reopening Hormuz is becoming more pressing as the world burns through oil stockpiles, while US officials forecast higher oil and gas prices as transit stays low (CNN)

• The Trump administration is developing an AI-powered "detective border" to crack down on trading partners suspected of helping China skirt US import tariffs (BBG)

• US Court of International Trade upheld Trump's suspension of the de minimis exemption for imports worth $800 or less, a policy Customs says generated more than $1bn in duty payments by the end of 2025 (BBG)

• Cleveland Fed Hammack doubled down on Thursday on her view that the Fed should raise rates immediately to bring inflation down (CNBC)

• Money markets priced in less than a 40% chance of a September Fed hike, down from around 50% earlier in the week, after the flat PPI print (BBG)

• Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% as expected, after Norwegian CPI slowed to 3% in July and underlying inflation eased to 2.7%, with new forecasts due in September (BBG) 

• US July producer prices were unchanged month-on-month and eased to 4.7% year-on-year, below the 4.9% expected, with core PPI at 4.2%, easing pressure on the Fed (BBG)

• US initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 209,000 in the week ended 8 August, above the 202,000 expected, while continuing claims fell to 1.777 million (TE)

• OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels a day from 780,000, while the IEA now sees consumption contracting 1.6 million barrels a day this year (RT)

• Baby Bunting delivers record FY26 pro forma NPAT of $16.1m, up 33.9% on FY25's $12.1m, with record sales of $556.0m (+6.5%) and comparable store sales up 3.5%. Gross margin lifted 100bps to a record 41.2% and net debt sat at $16.2m with $60m headroom. FY27 opens with first six-week comp sales up 4.3% (BBN)

• QBE Insurance posts 1H26 adjusted NPAT of US$1,033m, up 3.6% on US$997m, with ROE of 17.7% well above its 15%+ target and COR of 92.8% tracking to ~92.5% FY26 guidance. GWP up 6% in constant currency and interim dividend of 33c struck at a 33% payout. $450m buyback completed in April, with a Trade Credit sale and loss portfolio transfer due in 2H26 (QBE)

• Commodities pullback: Aluminium (-2.3%) tumbled overnight to US$3,222, driving a key name like Alcoa 3.1% lower (now down 8.3% in the last two sessions). Gold took a breather, down 1.3% to US$4,349/oz, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF down 2.9% overnight. The All Ords Gold Index snapped a nine-day gold streak on Thursday, down 0.4%. Materials was the worst performing S&P 500 sector, down 0.73%, while other overnight ETFs like Nickel Miners (-3.2%), Copper Miners (-3.1%) and Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (-1.1%) also traded down.

• Software: Looking very, very strong after the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (+3.1%) closed at the highest since 1-Jun and not far from breaking out to year-to-date highs. The sector was buoyed by a potential takeover offer for Workday, and a guidance upgrade from Adyen. We're seeing local tech names catch an aggressive bid, with Bravura Solutions rallying 12.5% on Wednesday after reporting a solid FY26, then surging another 12.1% on Thursday after brokers including Macquarie and Shaw hiked target prices by 32-41%.

Broker data is currently pending. Check out the Evening Wrap for a full breakdown of today's analyst updates

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 14 Aug: Argo Investments (ARG) – $0.20, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.04, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.011

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.02, Charter Hall Long (CLW) – $0.06, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) –$0.04

• Earnings: Storage King Group (SKG), Baby Bunting Group (BBN), Cygnus Metal Limited (CY5), IPD Group (IPD), QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST): 

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales