Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 higher on Amazon and Apple strength + Light & Wonder, AMP results

ASX 200 futures are down 27pts (-0.30%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished higher, but only because of strong gains from big tech names like Apple and Amazon

• Oil prices hit a fresh two-month low after falling for five straight sessions amid supply increases

• A relatively quiet day for ASX reporters, with only Light & Wonder and AMP scheduled

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed near session highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels

• Mega cap tech stocks buoyed the market, with notable gains from Apple (+5.0%), Amazon (+4.0%), Tesla (+3.6%) and Broadcom (+2.9%)

• Breadth was weak, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 down 0.22%, underperforming the official benchmark by 95 bps

• Oil prices fell for a fifth straight session, down 8.5% in total to a fresh two-month low on supply increases

• Apple helped tech stocks rally, likely to doge the bulk of Trump’s 50% tariff on India

• Bond traders ramp up Fed rate cut bets amid weak economic data, pricing in 75 bp of cuts by year-end (BBG)

• US companies announced US$166bn of buybacks in July, the highest dollar value on record for that month, with overall buybacks for 2025 set to top $1tn (BBG)

STOCKS

• AMD Q2 revenue and earnings in-line, Q3 guidance ahead of market expectations, though some disappointment as data centre segment revenue was only in-line (BBG)

• AMD, Super Micro Computer shares slump as earnings spark AI growth worries after disappointing data center results (RT)

• Super Micro's downgraded guidance raises concerns about margins in highly competitive pricing environment (BBG)

• Uber is in talks with banks, private equity firms to fund robotaxi expansion (RT)

• Snap Q2 sales miss after technical issue that allowed marketers to buy ads at substantially reduced prices (BBG)

• McDonald's global sales rose a better-than-expected 3.8% in Q2, ending four quarters of declining or tepid growth (BBG)

• Shopify shares surge 21% after strong Q2 revenue and GMV beat, set to overtake RBC to become Canada's largest listed company (BBG)

• Amgen raises 2025 guidance after strong quarterly sales (BBG)

• Novo Nordisk expands suits against weight-loss drug compounders (RT)

• Siemens Energy thrives amid global power demand surge (FT )

• Bayer shares drop as crop science revenue disappoints (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Once-promising US-India trade talks break down amid political misjudgment, missed signals, and bitterness (RT)

• Swiss president to leave US without tariff deal, Trump's 39% levy remains (BBG)

• Brazil's Finance Minister seeks trade negotiation with US after Trump imposes 50% tariff (RT)

• Trump escalates tariffs on Russian energy buyers, eyes semiconductor levies (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bank of England eyes slower quantitative tightening amid yield concerns (BBG)

• Fed Kashkari sees potential for two rate cuts, cites slowing economy (BBG)

ECONOMY

• New Zealand labor market softens, reinforcing August rate cut expectations (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• A pretty quiet morning so far, only AMP and Light & Wonder due to report results. Though the volume of results will ramp up from today

• Agnico Eagle considering a bid for Northern Star Resources (The Aus)

• Westgold guides to FY25 gold production of 345-385koz at AISC of A$2,600-2,900/oz (WGX)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Defensive weakness: Megacap tech stocks buoyed sectors like Discretionary and Tech higher, while defensive sectors like Healthcare (-1.5%), Utilities (-0.90%) and Real Estate (-0.8%) finished lower. Elsewhere, a few resource-related overnight ETFs like Nickel, Uranium, Silver and Gold ticked higher.

• Light & Wonder: Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $352m (vs. $351.7m ests), guided to full-year adjusted EBITDA between $1.43-1.47bn (vs. $1.43bn ests), flagged low-double digits growth for Q3 and momentum building into Q4.

BROKER MOVES

• Charter Hall Long WALE REIT upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $4.30 from $3.90 (JPM)

• News Corp downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target $32.70 (MQG)

• REA Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $240.00 from $250.00 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 7 Aug: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.083

• Fri 8 Aug: Amcil (AMH) – $0.055, Argo Investments (ARG) – $0.20 

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Arena REIT (ARF) 

• Earnings: AMP (AMP), Stanmore (SMR)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade (Jul)

• 1:00 pm: China Balance of Trade (Jul)

• 9:00 pm: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Ests: 25 bp cut to 4.0%)