ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 7th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 7. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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TSMC shares hit record high on tariff exemption

[14:18 pm] Political hot potato and computer chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor is up 4.9% to a record high this afternoon as it said US President Trump has exempted it from chip tariffs.

Futures in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index in the US are also up 0.3%.

By Tom Richardson.

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Judo Bank jumps 4% on APRA's regulatory changes

[13:56 pm] Shares in small and medium-sized business lender Judo Bank are up 4% to $1.68 today.

The move comes after banking regulator APRA revealed plans to loosen lending rules on small banks.

When it reports later this month Judo is expected to provide hotly-anticipated profit guidance for financial 2026.

By Tom Richardson.

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Gold was Australia's third-largest export in July

[13:18 pm] There's more evidence of a monetary system shift as gold became Australia's third largest export in July, according to the latest trade data figures.

National Australia Bank has pointed out the price of gold is up 76% in Australian dollar terms over the past 12 months. In other words the purchasing power of the Australian dollar has been losing value rapidly versus gold.

"Focusing on gold, the level of gold exports in the month rose to $5.8bn, making gold Australia’s third largest commodity export in July (note: the largest is ‘metal ores and minerals’ at $13.7bn and the second largest was 'other mineral fuels' at $6.3bn; note ‘coal, coke and briquettes’ stood at $5.5bn)," National Australia Bank said.

"The lift in gold is mainly coming through the AUD gold price which has risen some 76% over the past year. Themes around gold remain positive with two recent surveys of global reserve managers suggesting a tilt to gold from reserve asset managers."

By Tom Richardson.

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GQG Partners warns 'Buffett Indicator' flashing red on stock valuations

[13:00 pm] Investment group GQG Partners is warning share market buyers to avoid overpaying.

In a note out this morning it points out the 'Buffett Indicator" is at a record high as the world's most famous investor shifts to record amounts of cash.

"Cash on the balance sheet of Berkshire Hathaway has been steadily rising since 2022 and recently surpassed the prior peak that facilitated his discounted purchases during the GFC," said GQG Partners.

"Berkshire’s large cash position has occurred at the same time that the so-called “Buffett Indicator,” a ratio of the value of American stocks to America’s gross domestic income—a kind of price-to-sales ratio for the overall market—has exceeded the levels of the dotcom boom which preceded yet another bust."

By Tom Richardson.

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Gold climbs again

[12:41 pm] Spot gold has extended a week-long rally this morning to lift 0.4% to $US3381 an ounce.

Investors bought the precious metal after weak US jobs data on Friday prompted traders to bring forward and lift expectations about the path of rate cuts in the US.

Elsewhere, silver has extended its bull run to lift 0.5% to $US38.09 an ounce.

By Tom Richardson.

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Jarden says REA Group "too hot right now"

[12:25 pm] Jarden analyst Tom Beadle is sticking to an underweight rating on REA Group shares with a $219 price target.

The market darling is down 1% to $252.19 at lunchtime, after surging more than 5% on the release of its results on Wednesday.

Jarden is calling for earnings per share of $5.15 in financial 2026 and $6 in financial 2027.

By Tom Richardson.

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Australia's trade surplus jumps

[11:38 am] Australia's trade surplus jumped to $5.3 billion in June vs. market expectations of $2.5 billion and a sharp increase from $1.6 billion in May.

The May figure represented the smallest trade surplus since August 2020, largely driven by a 5.5% fall in shipments to the US.

The ABS reported the below numbers for June:

• Goods credits (exports) increased $2,518m (6.0%) driven by Non-monetary gold

• Goods debits (imports) decreased $1,244m (3.1%) driven by Capital goods

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Electro Optic Systems up 66% in three days

[11:34 am] Electro Optic Systems is giving Droneshield a run for its money, with the stock up an extraordinary 66% in the last three sessions.

On Tuesday, EOS announced the world’s first export order for a 100-kilowatt class laser defence system, valued at approximately $125 million from a European NATO customer. This is a massive contract relative to previous contracts and the company's market cap of ~$500 million (before the rally).

Electro Optic Systems daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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REA Group: Bulls vs bears

[11:30 am] A rather volatile session for REA Group after yesterday's solid FY25 result and 6.9% rally.

The stock opened 4.5% lower ($242.86) on Thursday, currently clawing its way back up to breakeven, down just 0.6% ($252.85).

Analysts seem generally positive on the company's FY25 result and guidance. They just have a hard time justifying its valuation (but when has REA ever been cheap?).

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Small caps making moves

[10:49 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:19 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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ASX tumbles 10% in early trade

[10:09 am] Shares in the exchange operator tumbled as much as 10% in early trade after flagging an additional $25-35 million in operating expenses for FY26 due to ASIC's ongoing compliance assessment and inquiry.

ASIC is also reviewing a listing market application from Cboe Australia, aiming to boost competition, attract foreign capital, and offer more choice to investors. This may also be another negative catalyst for the ASX.

The media release noted:

• It’s expanding approved foreign markets to include Cboe’s US and Canadian exchanges and the Canadian Securities Exchange, increasing access for Australian investors.

• The regulator licensed FCX’s tokenised market for private firms and expanded it to support bookbuilds, encouraging innovation in private markets.

• Broader reforms include promoting fairer clearing and settlement rules and fast-tracking IPOs, all aimed at keeping Australian markets globally competitive.

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Liontown launches $266 million placement

[9:53 am] Liontown has launched a $266 million, fully underwritten, institutional placement to 'fortify' its balance sheet.

The raise will be conducted at 73 cents per share or a 13.6% discount to its last closing price ($0.845).

Liontown says the proceeds will be used to bolster its balance sheet and provide a liquidity buffer during a period of low lithium prices and support the ramp up of Kathleen Valley.

The announcement noted that all of Liontown's board intend to participate in the share purchase plan.

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Analysts take on REA FY25 result

[9:50 am] REA shares surged 6.9% on Wednesday after the company reported a relatively in-line FY25 result, with a stronger-than-expected dividend. Here's what brokers are thinking:

• JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, lowered target from $250.00 to $240.00. While margin concerns eased and yield outlook held, valuation is now seen as full, prompting the downgrade.

• Macquarie maintained Neutral, lowered target from $260.00 to $255.00. FY25 results were in line, but CEO transition is viewed as a valuation risk despite product innovation and dividend support.

• Jarden maintained Underweight, raised target from $216.00 to $219.00. Strong cash conversion surprised via dividend, but India losses are expected to widen and valuation remains stretched.

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ASX flags additional $25-35 million in operating expenses

[9:46 am] The exchange operator says it will incur additional operating expenses of between $25-35 million in FY26 in relation to an ASIC compliance assessment and inquiry.

On 16 June, AISC launched an inquiry into the ASX, focusing on governance, capability and risk management frameworks.

This follows a massive misstep on Wednesday, where the ASX incorrectly assigned the details of TPG Capital's takeover of Infomedia to TPG Telecom's ticker, TPG. The confusion drove TPG shares 5.0% lower.

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AMP reports 1H25 results

[9:35 am] AMP's first-half numbers present a mixed picture, with most figures falling slightly short of consensus expectations. Though, the estimates from Macquarie sit below market consensus, with AMP's FY25 guidance largely in-line with the broker's forecasts.

• Revenue up 1.8% to $632m vs. $636.2m consensus (0.6% miss)

• Asset under management up 3.7% to $153.9bn

• Underlying NPAT up 9.2% to $131m vs. $138.2m consensus (5.1% miss)

  • Platforms NPAT up 7.4% to $58m

  • Platforms AUM up 4.3% to $83.2bn

  • Platforms margin of 40 bps

• Interim dividend of 2 cents per share

For the full-year, AMP guided to:

• Platforms AUM based revenue margin of 43 bps vs. Macquarie ests of 43 bps (in-line)

• Superannuation and investments AUM based revenue margin of 63 bps vs. ests of 63 bps (in-line)

• AMP bank net interest margin to be broadly in-line with 1H25 at 1.30% vs. ests of 1.245% (net of offsets)

• Controllable costs to be $600m vs. $600m ests (in-line)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: AMP (AMP)

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Light & Wonder earnings call highlights

[9:17 am] Light & Wonder wrapped up its second quarter earnings call a few hours ago. Here are the key takeaways:

• Plans to transition to a sole ASX listing by the end of November 2025, aiming to optimise shareholder value and better align with long-term growth plans.

• Litigation cases in Nevada and Australia are scheduled for trial in the first half of 2026, with favourable rulings received in June.

• Updated FY25 EBITDA guidance of $1.43–1.47 billion now includes a $65 million contribution from Grover.

• Share buyback program increased from $1 billion to $1.5 billion, with at least 50% of the $950 million remaining capacity to be used prior to Nasdaq delisting.

• Grover integration progressing well, underpinned by strong cultural alignment and organic growth; company preparing to enter the Indiana market in the fall.

• New tax legislation expected to deliver annual cash tax savings of $40–50 million, helping support rising demand.

• NPATA guidance revised lower, reflecting Grover’s modest accretion and increased interest expenses associated with share repurchases.

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Airbnb beats Q2 earnings, but cautious on the second half

[9:15 am] Airbnb reported its Q2 earnings after market close, with the stock down 6.3% after hours. Numbers for the second quarter broadly beat expectations, but some cautious management commentary likely weighed on the share price.

• Revenue up 13% YoY to $3.10bn vs. $3.03bn ests (+2.3% beat)

• EPS up 20% YoY to $1.03 vs. $0.93 ests (+10.8% beat)

• Gross Booking Value (GBV) up 11% YoY to $23.5bn vs. $22.82bn ests (+3.0% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 17% YoY to $1.04bn vs. $970.7m ests (+7.1% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 34% vs. 32% ests (+2 pts beat)

• Q3 revenue guidance of $4.02–$4.10bn vs. $4.05bn ests (inline to +1.2% beat)

• Q3 adjusted EBITDA expected above $2.0B vs. $2.0bn ests (inline)

Management said "we expect a tougher year-over-year comparison toward the end of the quarter. This dynamic will continue into Q4, putting pressure on growth rates later in the year."

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Light & Wonder earnings disappoint, plans to de-list from Nasdaq

[9:04 am] US-listed Light & Wonder shares slipped 3.2% after hours following a relatively soft Q2 result and full-year guidance. Here are the key takeaways:

• Q2 revenue of $809m vs. $851.1m ests (4.9% miss)

• Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $352m vs. $351.7m ests (0.1% beat)

• CY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.43-1.47bn vs. $1.43bn ests (1.4% beat at the midpoint)

• CY25 adjusted NPATA guidance of $550-575m vs. Macquarie estimates of $612m (8.1% miss)

LNW said it expects earnings to be weighted towards the second half, though third quarter earnings will only grow by low double-digits, with momentum building into the fourth quarter.

The Board also approved moving from the company's current dual listing on the Nasdaq and ASX, to a sole primary listing on the ASX. The Nasdaq delisting is expected to take place by the end of November 2025.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Light & Wonder (LNW)

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AMD shares slump

[8:55 am] AMD shares dipped 6.4% despite the company reporting a relatively strong Q2 result and Q3 guidance. The key driver of share price weakness was a relatively in-line revenue from its data centre segment, which rose only 14% year-on-year (but down 12% quarter-on-quarter). Amid all the hype around AI, these numbers just aren't strong enough.

Here are the key Q2 numbers:

• Revenue up 32% YoY to $7.69bn vs. $7.43bn est. (+3.5% beat)

• Adj. EPS down 30% YoY to $0.48 vs. $0.49 est. (-2% miss)

• Adj. gross margin: 43%, down 10 percentage points YoY

• Q3 revenue guidance of $8.4bn–$9.0bn vs. $8.37bn est. (midpoint +2.7% beat); up ~28% YoY

• Q3 non-GAAP gross margin of ~54%

Some of the management comments include:

• "Data Center segment revenue was $3.2 billion, up 14% YoY primarily driven by strong demand for AMD EPYC™ processors more than offsetting headwinds impacting AMD Instinct MI308 shipments to China."

• "We are seeing robust demand across our computing and AI product portfolio and are well positioned to deliver significant growth in the second half of the year..."

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Bets on Fed rate cuts jump

[8:50 am] Bond traders are now pricing in up to 75 bps of Fed rate cuts in 2025, with some expecting a 50bps cut as early as September. Here's why.

• Weaker US economic data (e.g. payrolls and services sector) and political pressure from Trump are fueling expectations for easing.

• SOFR options positioning shows increased bets on rate cuts, especially around the 95.625–95.875 strike range.

• Treasury yields are falling (10 year yield at 4.24%), and investor positioning has turned bullish with JPMorgan showing largest net long positions since April.

• Fed officials are signaling openness to cuts, and skew in Treasury options shows a preference for call options, suggesting traders are hedging for a bond rally.

Source: Bloomberg

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S&P 500 higher (but not really)

[8:45 am] We've probably all said something along the lines of "the S&P 500 finished higher, so why is the ASX set to fall? Our market is terrible," at some point in our investing journey. But today's price action has a pretty simple.

• S&P 500 finished 0.73% higher, but Equal-weight S&P 500 down 0.22%

• Gains from big tech stocks powered the Discretionary (+2.5%) and Tech (+1.3%) higher

• But defensive and value-oriented sectors like Healthcare (-1.5%), Utilities (-0.9%) and Real Estate (-0.8%) moved in the other direction

• Energy (-0.9%) sector also very weak overnight as oil prices fell for a fifth straight session

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 27 points (-0.30%). While the S&P 500 closed 0.73% higher overnight, the rally was largely driven by megacap names including Apple (+5.0%), Amazon (+4.0%) and Tesla (+3.6%). The equal-weight S&P 500 tells a different story, finishing down 0.22% as more stocks fell than rose, revealing underlying market weakness.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.