Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 bounces back, BHP hit with another potash cost blowout

In a nutshell:

• Wall Street rebounded from the Fed sell-off on Thursday, Tech stocks led by a wide margin while defensives and value-oriented pockets of the market underperformed 

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 6% to a record high, with Intel surging on a Trump-announced Apple chip deal 

• Oil tumbled toward three-month lows as the US-Iran deal cleared the way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

• Note: US market is closed tonight in observance of the Juneteenth National Independence Day

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks higher, rebounding from the Fed-driven sell-off as chips fuelled the comeback 

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the SOX (+6.4%), hit a record high, with Nvidia topping S&P 500 gainers on a points basis

• Big Tech broadly higher, with notable gains from Micron (+8.7%), AMD (+4.8%), Broadcom (+4.7%) and Nvidia (+2.9%), though SpaceX fell 3.5% to $185 

• Breadth was a little soft, with the Dow (+0.14%) marginally higher and Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.46%) underperforming the cap-weighted index by 62 bps

• Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+2.1%) closing at fresh all-time highs

• Brent snapped a five-day losing streak, settling the session up 0.7% to US$79.25, prices are now back to 2 March levels but still up 30% YTD  

• Markets reposition following hawkish Fed hold, futures fully pricing in rate hike by October (BBG)

• JPMorgan strategists warn rising semiconductor volatility raises risk of market "tantrums" via VaR-driven selling (BBG)

• Yen weakens to lowest against the dollar in almost two years, raising Japan intervention risk (RT)

• Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease sanctions, opening a 60-day window for final talks (CNBC)

• Deal allows Tehran to immediately sell its oil freely and unfreezes Iranian assets, with Trump warning he could resume attacks if Tehran fails to honour commitments (CNBC)

• Iran will make best efforts for safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days through the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman (AJ)

• Iran stands to gain $60bn a year in revenue from easing of oil sanctions, giving it economic lifeline (WSJ)

• Next round of talks to focus on restrictions on nuclear program, some skepticism around Iran intentions for nuclear concessions (AX)

• Goldman Sachs projects Strait of Hormuz oil flows could recover to ~70% of pre‑war levels by end of next month (BBG)

• Shipping data shows 31 supertankers inside Persian Gulf poised to sail to Asia once Strait of Hormuz reopens (BBG)

• Intel shares surged 10.6% after Trump said the chipmaker will work with Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically (BBG)

• Apple plans to raise product prices to offset rising memory and storage chip costs, CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal, calling increases unavoidable (YF)

• Accenture Q3 FY26: revenue up 6% to $18.7bn, just shy of the $18.8bn ests, EPS $3.80 beat ests by around 2%, full-year revenue growth guidance cut to 3-4% from 3-5%, citing weak client demand and US federal slowdown, shares down 18% (YF)

• Warsh declined to submit his own dot, saying it was not helpful in the conduct of policy and flagging a year-end review of Fed communications (CNBC)

• Trump expresses confidence in Warsh following Fed hold (RT)

• Norway, Switzerland and the UK central banks were due to deliver rate decisions, with the Fed's hawkish shift in focus (SAXO)

• BOJ widely predicted to hike again by year-end with December move seen as more likely (BBG)

• Taiwan central bank holds rates steady for ninth quarter, citing moderate inflation post‑Iran deal (WSJ)

• US initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000 in the week ended June 13, near the 225,000 forecast, signalling labour market resilience (BBG) 

• APRA conducts detailed interviews with over 20 banks over unsatisfactory oversight related to SME lending practices (AFR)

• BHP revises total Jansen Stage 2 investment to US$6.9bn from $4.9bn, this is separate from the Jan-26 blowout which raised total investment for Stage 1 from US$7.0-7.4bn to US$8.4bn (BHP)

• IDP Education guides FY26 adjusted EBIT of $122m vs. prior $120-130m guidance and $119m ests, announces up to $50m buyback (IEL)

• PLS Group approves pre-FID capex of $175m to expedite the P2000 Project, FID expected in December quarter 2026, if sanctioned by Board, expected to deliver first ore in mid-2029 (PLS)

• BHP: Another ugly capex blowout for Jansen, with NYSE-listed BHP shares down 2.&% overnight. Stage 2 total investment is now 40% higher vs. the original Oct-23 (US$4.9bn) figure, IRRs now just 11% vs. initial 15-18%, payback period extended to 8 years vs. initial 6 years from first production. Jansen is not yet material to the Group (approx 8-9% of NPV according to Macquarie ests) but not a good look for a key future facing commodity segment of the business.

• Commodity softness: Expect a relatively weak session for local miners as most commodities traded lower overnight, including gold (-0.78%), aluminium (-0.85%), silver (-3.1%), though copper eked out a small 0.2% gain. Resource-related ETFs including Gold Miners (-2.1%), Silver Miners (-2.5%), Copper Miners (-1.5%) and Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (-0.5%) traded broadly lower.

• A2 Milk upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target down to NZ$9.2 from NZ$10.40 (UBS)

• Boss Energy upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target cut to $1.30 from $1.40 (Goldman Sachs)

• Paladin Energy downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $9.70 from $11.30 (Goldman Sachs)

• Steadfast Group downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $4.50 from $4.80 (Macquarie) 

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 19 Jun: None

• Mon 22 Jun: PT Antam (ATM) – $0.067, Fisher & Paykel (FPH) – $0.27

• Tue 23 Jun: None

• Wed 24 Jun: None
  

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:30 am: Japan Inflation

• 4:00 pm: UK Retail Sales