Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall despite S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq record closes, Oil tumbles to five-week low

In a nutshell:

• Dow hit a fresh record close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eked out tiny gains as chip stocks paused after Wednesday’s Micron-led surge.

• Brent tumbled 3.5% to a five-week low of US$92.8 after Iranian state TV reported a draft Hormuz framework deal, before the White House denied the report as a "complete fabrication".

• JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon told the Bernstein conference the bank could deploy US$10-20bn on an acquisition over the next couple of years, the largest of his tenure

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks flattish, trading within a tight range, though S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all closed at fresh all-time highs

• A relatively uneventful session, with oil down, yields down but stocks flat and commodities struggling

• Semiconductor stocks took a bit of a breather, though consumer names (spanning staples, retail, travel and homebuilders) strong

• Goldman Sachs joins Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank in lifting S&P 500 outlook, raising its year-end target to 8,000 from 7,6000 on AI-driven earnings momentum (YF)

• SK Hynix market cap eclipses $1tn, joining peers as rally in memory chip stocks intensifies (BBG)

• FTSE Russell follows Nasdaq with rule change speeding up addition of new large-cap companies to its main indexes (BBG)

• US mutual funds, passive index funds starting to set aside cash to prepare for upcoming IPOs (RT)

• Iranian state TV reported a draft, unofficial framework MOU under which Iran would restore commercial Hormuz shipping to pre-war levels within one month, while the US would withdraw forces and lift the naval blockade (RT)

• The White House dismissed the Iranian state media report as a "complete fabrication," saying no such agreement exists (BBG)

• Trump says Iran is "negotiating on fumes" and warned strikes could resume if a deal isn't reached, declaring "I don't care about the midterms" (CNN)

• The IEA's May Oil Market Report sees global oil demand contracting ~420,000bd in 2026 to 104Mbd, 1.3Mbd below pre-war forecasts, with petrochemicals and aviation hardest hit (IEA)

• Two more supertankers successfully transit Strait of Hormuz, continuing modest pickup in shipping activity (BBG)

• Tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from Abu Dhabi exits the Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• Salesforce Q1 FY27: revenue up 13% to $11.1bn, GAAP EPS $2.42 up 52% YoY, non-GAAP EPS $3.88 beat ests by ~24%, shares down 0.8% (SEC)

• Snowflake Q1 FY27 product revenue up 34% to $1.33bn, RPO up 38% YoY to $9.21bn, the strongest sequential dollar growth in company history, shares up 35% after hours (SEC)

• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank could spend up to $10-20bn on an acquisition over the next couple of years, which would be the largest of his 20-year tenure, shares fell around 2% (CNBC)

• Anthropic's annualised revenue approaches $45bn, likely surpassing OpenAI's estimated $33bn by 35% (TI)

• Nvidia plans to spend up to $150bn annually on Taiwan AI suppliers (NK)

• China sets export quotas for urea fertilizer, potentially easing rising global prices amid supply disruptions (RT)

• US Customs and Border Protection says about $20.6B will be refunded to importers through a new claims portal (BBG)

• Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari says next rate move could go either way, prolonged Iran war could lead to multiple hikes (NK)

• Dallas Fed President Logan warns of drastic oil consumption cuts if Strait of Hormuz blockade persists (RT)

• RBNZ held rates unchanged in a split decision resolved by Governor's casting vote, new forecasts indicate likelihood of at least two 25 bp hikes by year end (BBG)

• China April industrial profits jumped 24.7% year-on-year, the fastest growth in more than two years, driven by AI semiconductor demand and rising oil prices, with high-tech manufacturing profits up 44.8% year-to-date (CNBC)

• Australia April monthly CPI eased to 4.2% from 4.6% in March, below expectations of 4.4%, supported by fuel excise cut. Trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.4% from 3.3% (ABS)

• AGL looking to sell majority stakes in wind farms totalling 1.7GW to private capital (AFR)

• Mayfield holder Nightingale Partners seeking to sell 10m shares (AFR)

• Commodity weakness: A relatively heavy overnight session for most commodities, despite what is usually an accommodative backdrop of lower oil prices and bond yields. Gold down 1.1% to a two-month low of US$4,459/oz, copper down 1.3% to US$6.36/lb and aluminium down 1.2% to US$3,615/t. Most resource-related ETFs on the overnight watchlist fell 1-3%, with a notable 3.4% decline for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF.

• Airline strength: US Jets ETF up 2.9% overnight, now up 17% in the last five sessions thanks to the lower oil price backdrop. A name like Qantas has been rangebound since early March, now up 9.9% in the last five sessions and on the cusp of breaking out of its recent trading range.

• Nufarm upgrades, Endeavour fallout: Nufarm (+13.6%) ripped higher on Wednesday, rallying to a fresh 52-week high off the back of a strong 1H26 result. A bit of a turnaround story this one, though business segments like crop protection, seeds and AgChem supported by pricing tailwinds. Meanwhile, Endeavour (-4.8%) hit another fresh all-time low as its Investor Day revealed an encouraging strategy update, though an unexpected change in dividend payout moving forward (to 50-75% from historically 70-80%). This could have a material impact on yields moving forward, and drive some sustained selling from income-oriented investors/funds.

• Nufarm upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target up to $3.60 from $3.40 (RBC)

• Nufarm upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $3.50 from $2.80 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 28 May: 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.05, Technology One (TNE) – $0.08

• Fri 29 May: Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.012, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.015, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014

• Mon 1 Jun: L1 Long Short Fund (LSF) – $0.037

• Tue 2 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Select Harvests (SHV)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Eagers Automotive (APE)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index

• 10:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders

• 10:30 pm: US Q2 GDP