Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 higher on Alphabet and Apple rally, Gold hits another record high

ASX 200 futures are up 31pts (+0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks bounced but largely thanks to big moves from Alphabet (+9.0%) and Apple (+3.8%)

• Alphabet and Apple rallied after antitrust ruling was seen as less severe than expected

• Gold continues to push fresh all-time highs, while oil prices slump on potential OPEC production hike

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 bounced, finished near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks bounced and finished near best levels after a late-session rally

• S&P 500 snapped a two-day losing streak, though the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.15%) underperformed the official benchmark by 66 bps

• Big tech lifted the market higher, notably Alphabet (+9.0%) and Apple (+3.8%) after antitrust resolution

• Today’s big story – Better-than-feared outcome for Google’s antitrust case, decision requires company to share online search data with rivals and bars them from entering into exclusive contracts for distribution but avoids more severe penalties such as a forced sale of Chrome and continue revenue sharing agreements

• HSBC lifts S&P 500 target again citing strong earnings, modest tariffs (RT)

• JPMorgan says gold could hit US$4,250 next year amid uncertainty and inflation expectations (YF)

• US bond yields slip as July JOLTs job openings misses (7.18m vs. 7.37m ests), and marks the lowest print since September 2024 (BBG)

• Longer-dated JGB yields briefly hit fresh highs amid pickup in concerns about fiscal pressures, supply and political uncertainty (BBG)

• Oil prices dip as OPEC+ may consider increasing oil production at Sunday's meeting to regain market share (RT)

STOCKS

• Federal judge says Google not required to sell Chrome but must share search data with competitors (BBG)

• iPhone 17 price hike expected as analysts see Apple passing tariff costs to consumers (CNBC)

• ConocoPhillips to lay off 20-25% of its 13,000 global employees as part of restructuring program (RT)

• Apple loses lead AI researcher for robotics to Meta, continuing talent exodus from company (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Corporate America may seek refunds after a court ruled Trump's global tariffs unlawful, potentially worth billions (AX)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOE's Bailey says rate cuts likely to continue, but timing now uncertain (WSJ)

• Bessent planning to start interviews for Fed Chair on Friday (WSJ)

• ECB's Muller says it makes sense to keep rates on hold, Dolenc says the next move may be to hike rates (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China services PMI up to 52.6 in July, accelerates at fastest pace in 15 months, aided by stronger rise in new business and exports (RT)

• Eurozone composite PMI inched up to 51.0 in August, marking a 12-month high, but indicating only modest growth (RT)

• UK services PMI rose to 54.2 in August, activity rose to its fastest pace in over a year, driven by rebounding orders (FT )

• Australian Q2 GDP accelerates to 0.6% vs. market expectations of 0.5% and up from 0.3% in the first quarter (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Adriatic Metals scheme with Dundee Precious Metals becomes effective, this pretty much takes off one of the only pure-play silver producers on the market (ADT)

• Iress CEO Marcus Price to step down, effective 4-Sep, replaced by Andrew Russell who held executive roles at Bravura Solutions and Class Limited (IRE)

• Platinum Asset Management Chairman Guy Strapp purchases 100,000 shares, doubles his holdings to 200,000 (PTM)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Gold prices continued to push all-time highs overnight, but gold miners starting to show some signs of fatigue as most names are up 20-40% since mid-July. Plenty of ASX-listed names opened higher on Wednesday but faded early gains.

• Energy: Oil prices under pressure overnight after reports said OPEC+ will consider a fresh round of supply increases when the group meets this weekend.

• Pullback dynamics: ASX set to bounce after suffering a big one-day selloff. This leaves us in a bit of 'no mans land'. Would be good to see some consolidation after the recent rally. Though plenty of downward drivers remain (long-dated yield backup, weak seasonality, tariff volatility etc.)

BROKER MOVES

• Technology One upgraded to Hold from Sell; target remains $35.75 (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 4 Sep: Acumentis Group (ACU) – $0.002, Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Atlas Pearls (ATP) – $0.014, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) – $0.039, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) – $0.05, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.24, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.024, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.128, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.02, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Sky Network Television (SKT) – $0.122, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.059, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09, Viva Energy Group (VEA) – $0.028, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Wotso (WOT) – $0.013

• Fri 5 Sep: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Microequities Asset Mgmt (MAM) – $0.02, Objective Corp (OCL) – $0.13, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peet (PPC) – $0.05, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.028

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Brickworks (BKW), GWA Group (GWA), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Korvest (KOV), Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade (Jul)

• 12:00 am: US ISM Services PMI (Aug)