Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise on solid earnings and economic data

ASX 200 futures are up 64pts (+0.72%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher but faded intraday highs

• Broad-based bounce after indices logged their worst daily drop since early October

• Bounce comes amid no signs of panic (VIX ~18) as well as resilient buy-the-dip narrative, seasonal tailwinds, resumption of corporate buybacks and solid PMIs from the US and Europe overnight

• Supreme Court appears skeptical of Trump's global tariffs, key justices suggest he has overstepped his authority

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher but off best levels (e.g. S&P 500 faded early gains of 0.86%)

• Broad-based bounce after the S&P 500 logged its largest daily drop since 10-Oct on Wednesday

• No major changes for key market narratives surrounding stretched valuations, big tech concentration, narrow breadth, cracks in consumer resilience theme

• Bounce comes amid no signs of panic (VIX ~18), buy-the-dip narrative remains strong on elevated retail flows, seasonality and resumption of corporate buybacks and still-solid macro backdrop via US and EU PMIs

• Global semiconductor stocks dip, losing $500bn amid concerns over lofty valuations (BBG)

• Basket of stocks heavily owned by retail experiences worst sell-off since April (BBG)

• Consumer stocks lag underperform in 2025 with downbeat household spending, tariffs and softer labour market weighing (BBG)

• Asia tech stocks fall sharply amid valuation concerns (BBG)

STOCKS

• AMD data center sales beat consensus, revenue guidance falls short of frothy expectations, shares close ~2.3% higher, bouncing off session low of -2.8% (BBG)

• Tesla sales in Germany fell by more than half in October, and now down 50% YTD (CNBC)

• Netflix says ads reached 190 million viewers in October as company rolls out new reporting metric (YF)

• BofA raises its profitability target with NII expected to grow 5-7% over next five years (RT)

• Retailers broadly raising prices to manage tariffs, but Amazon hiking more than others (CNBC)

• Apple nearing $1bn deal to use Google's Gemini in Siri overhaul (BBG)

• Super Micro downgrades Q1 guidance, citing competitive tensions and margin pressure, shares dive 11% to two-month low (BBG)

• Microsoft has committed more than $60bn to "neocloud" data center companies (BBG)

• Nvidia supplier Hon Hai Precision reports 11.3% revenue growth in October amid strong AI demand (BBG)

• Amgen reported quarterly results exceeding expectations and raised its FY outlook, shares soar 7.8% (RT)

TARIFFS

• Supreme Court appears skeptical of Trump’s global tariffs as key justices suggest he had overstepped his authority (BBG)

• White House formalises China fentanyl tariff cut, extension of reciprocal tariff pause (BBG)

• China will lift retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products after the US reduced fentanyl tariffs (BBG)

• China bans new state-funded data centers from using foreign AI chips (RT)

• Trump announced new trade talks with Switzerland, imposing a 39% tariff on goods (BBG)

• EU and China have created special channel to ensure rare earth supplies (YF)

CENTRAL BANKS

• September BOJ minutes reveal 'a few members' favored a rate hike (RT)

• Sweden's Riksbank holds rates at 1.75%, citing for support for economic recovery and stabilise inflation (BBG)

SHUTDOWN

• Senators increasingly optimistic they could reach bipartisan deal to end shutdown by end of week (RT)

• Shutdown longest in history and costing the economy about $15bn weekly (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US October services PMI expands at fastest pace in eight months at 52.5 vs. 51.1 ests and 50.0 in the previous month, new orders index now the highest since Oct-24 (BBG)

• China RatingDog services PMI slowed to three-month low, new order growth quickens (RT)

• Eurozone October PMI rising to 52.5 on strong service sector activity (RT)

• New Zealand unemployment rises to nine-year high, reinforcing November rate cut bets (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Amcor reports Q1 EPS of 19.3 cents vs. 19 cents ests, adjusted net income of $448m vs. $422.9m ests, FY26 EPS guidance of 80-83 cents vs. 80 cents ests (AMC)

• Aura Energy notes Swedish parliament has voted to overturn uranium mining ban (AEE)

• Light & Wonder reports Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $375m vs. $363m ests, reaffirms 2025 guidance (LNW)

• NAB reports FY25 cash earnings down 0.2% to $7.09bn vs. $7.14bn ests, net interest margin of 1.74% vs. 1.72% ests, total dividend of 170 cps vs. 170 cps ests (NAB)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Resource bounce: Wednesday was a relatively heavy session for the resource sector, with most lithium, uranium, copper, rare earth, gold etc. names down at least 2-3%. Seeing a bit of a bounce from bearish territory overnight, with copper back above US$5.0/lb, gold closing just shy of US$4,000.

• NAB results: FY25 results read well at face value and largely in-line with ests. Net interest margin 1-2 bp ahead of consensus and analyst forecasts.

BROKER MOVES

• Goodman Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral but target lowered to $36.41 from $36.63 (UBS)

• Goodman Group upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target remains $34.74 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 6 Nov: Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) – $0.045, Westpac Bank (WBC) – $0.77, Wam Global Ltd (WGB) – $0.065

• Fri 7 Nov: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Arena REIT (ARF), Elanor Commercial Property Fund (ECF)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Breville Group (BRG), NiB Holdings (NHF), Seven West Media (SWM), Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Earnings: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia balance of trade (Sep)

• 11:00 pm: Bank of England rate decision