Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 snaps 6-day win streak ahead of big tech earnings

ASX 200 futures are down 7pts (-0.08%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks retreated overnight as the market digested a flurry of earnings reports

• Markets brace for some massive catalysts over the next few days, including earnings from four Mag-7 stocks and the Fed's interest rate decision

• Pilbara Minerals delivers an operationally strong Q4 and FY25, analysts downgrade their Greatland Gold targets after yesterday's shocker

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, closer near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished broadly lower and near worst levels

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped a six-day win streak, easing from all-time highs

• Today’s big story – lots of moving pieces ahead of Mag-7 earnings (Microsoft and Meta tomorrow after close), a few disappointing earnings from the industrial and healthcare space, US and China agreed to extend trade talks, US consumer confidence jumped

• Oil prices rallied 3% after Trump said the US may impose additional levies on Russia, unless it reached a truce with Ukraine (BBG) 

• Wall Street strategists see pullbacks as buying opportunities, maintaining long-term bullish outlook (BBG)

• EU-US trade agreement fails to boost market risk appetite, global markets show minimal movement (BBG)

• Japan's two-year bond auction sees strongest demand since October, yields near 2008 highs (BBG)

STOCKS

• Procter & Gamble CEO says company will raise prices on some products to offset tariff impacts (RT)

• JPMorgan Chase is nearing a deal to take over the Apple Card portfolio from Goldman Sachs (CNBC)

• Gucci revenue dipped 25% in Q2, with the brand suffering more than most peers from a luxury industry slowdown (BBG)

• UnitedHealth flags high medical costs in 2025, says earnings will be worse than expected (CNBC)

• Nvidia ordered 300,000 H20 chipsets from TSM, reflecting strong China demand (RT)

• Most US iPhones now made in India after Apple's production shift (BBG)

• AstraZeneca tops Q2 profit forecasts, driven by strong US drug sales despite tariff threats (FT)

• Stellantis flags €1.2bn hit from tariffs in the second half, adjusts financial guidance amid trade deal (BBG)

• Barclays' 1H25 profit jumps 23% to £5.2bn, boosted by trading activity (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed board divide reflects debate between cutting prematurely and cutting too late (WSJ)

TARIFFS 

• US-China trade talks in Stockholm have concluded, with negotiators suggesting the meeting was productive though no major breakthroughs announced (BBG)

• Trump says India will likely face a 20-25% tariff, though not final (AX)

• US goods trade deficit hits two-year low amid falling imports (RT)

• China's trade had its worst week in three months, a sign this year's record breaking volumes may be starting to slow (BBG)

• US-EU trade deal remains vague and reaching consensus on legally binding items may take long time (BBG)

• Trump's tariffs drives effective US tariff rate to 17.3%, near highest since 1930s (FT)

ECONOMY

• US job openings fall back to 7.44m after spiking in each of the prior two months, hiring rate slowed to 3.3%, the lowest since Nov-24 (BBG)

• Spain's GDP grew 0.7% in Q2, showing resilience amid Eurozone slowdown and US tariffs (WSJ)

ASX TODAY

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• Coast Entertainment major shareholder Spheria Asset Management lifts stake to 18.7% from 13.6% (CEH)

• HMC Capital seeking buyers for Neoen’s Victoria portfolio, which it purchased for $950m in December last year (The Aus)

• HSBC mulls sale of Australian retail arm, NAB expected to be best placed to acquire the business, while ANZ and Westpac may also be interested (The Aus)

• Pilbara Minerals reports Q4 spodumene production of 221.3kdmt vs. 195.1kdmt consensus, FY25 production of 754.6kdmt vs. 700-740kdmt guidance, revenue down 38% to $769m (PLS)

• Polynovo guides to FY25 EBITDA between $11.2-12.4m vs. $11.8m consensus, full-year sales up 29% to $118.6m (PNV)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Gold prices snapped a four-day losing streak, bouncing 0.40% overnight. This drove a 1.25% bounce for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

• Energy: S&P 500 Energy sector up 0.96% overnight after oil prices rallied on potential US levies on Russian energy exports.

• Lithium: Chinese lithium carbonate futures dipped 5.9% on Tuesday to 70,840 yuan a tonne. Prices have now fallen around 14% in the last two sessions. Will be interesting to see how prices open today (11am AEST) amid such volatility. Pilbara Minerals also reported another operationally strong Q4.

BROKER MOVES

• Greatland Gold retained Outperform; target price cut to $7.20 from $8.40 (MQG)

• Greatland Gold retained Neutral; target cut to $6.65 from $7.40 (GS)

• Sandfire Resources retained Neutral; target up to $11.30 from $10.80 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 30 Jul: KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.065

• Thu 31 Jul: Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.013, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.012, Metrics Real Estate (MRE) – $0.009

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: RAM Essential Services Property Fund (REP) 

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Champion Iron (CIA)

• AGMs: ALS (ALQ)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Inflation (Jun)

• 6:00 pm: Germany GDP Flash (Q2)

• 7:00 pm: Eurozone GDP Flash (Q2)

• 10:30 pm: US GDP Growth (Q2)

• 11:45 pm: Canada Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 2.75%)