Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 rallies within 1% of all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are up 5pts (+0.05%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks rallied on the Israel-Iran truce, which was first announced on Tuesday morning

• Trump's tariff delay date is fast approaching but the US is struggling to secure trade deals with major partners

• Oil prices now down 15% from the brief US$80 a barrel peak on Tuesday

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 opens sharply higher, rallies intraday to close near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished sharply higher and near best levels

• S&P 500 at a fresh four-month high and within 1% of its 19-Feb record close, Nasdaq also 1.3% away from its December all-time high

• Brent crude fell 3.7%, now down 15% from its brief US$80.34 peak

• Today’s big story – stocks rallied amid easing geopolitical fears, after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire

• Policy uncertainty driving central banks away from US Dollar and toward Gold, Euro and Yuan (RT)

• EMs outperform global markets as higher yields, cheap valuations entice investors looking to diversify amid Trump's tariff war (FT)

STOCKS

• Amazon to spend over $4bn to expand Prime delivery to rural communities in the US (TC)

• Uber, Waymo robotaxis now available in Atlanta (CNBC)

• Tesla faces fine in France, government probe alleges deceptive claims (FT)

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold 100,000 shares over the last two days for $14.4m, he may sell up to 6m shares ($865m) by year-end (BBG)

• Amazon plans $54bn investment in the UK over three years to enhance AI innovation (RT)

• Starbucks denies plans of full China sale, saying it sees significant long-term potential in the market (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell delivers semiannual testimony to congress, reiterates Fed is well positioned to wait and learn more before making policy adjustments (FED)

• Trump criticises Fed Chair Powell on Truth Social, suggesting interest rates should be at least two to three points lower (RT)

• Fed's Williams says it is appropriate to maintain current policy stance (RT)

• ECB VP de Guindos says oil price not derailing inflation retreat (BBG)

• Fed officials mull cutting rates at July meeting amid reduced concerns about tariff-related inflation risks (RT)

ISRAEL-IRAN

• Israel-Iran ceasefire appears to hold after Trump outburst at both sides (BBC)

• Iran's president says it will not violate ceasefire unless Israel does so (RT)

• Trump's ceasefire announcement surprised his top officials, following talks with Netanyahu and Iranian officials (NYT)

• Israel accuses Iran of breaching truce (BBG)

TARIFFS 

• Trump's 9-Jul tariff deadline is fast approaching, but trade talks with major partners are struggling, with only the Uk securing a deal (BBG)

• EU Commission signals flexibility on digital regulations in push to secure tariff relief (PLT)

• India-US eye interim trade deal by 9-Jul but challenges remain over areas such as agriculture market access (BBG)

• Japan and US still working to set date for next round of talks as Akazawa again plays down 9-Jul deadline (BBG)

ECONOMY

• South Korean consumer confidence jumps to 108.7 in June, rising above the 100 level that divides optimism from pessimism, now at the highest level in four years (BBG)

• Canada's inflation was 1.7% in May, in-line with market expectations, core inflation decelerated to 3.0% from 3.1% in April (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Be sure to check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Carlyle has been actively targeting Australian energy companies, prior to joining Santos bid (The Aus)

• Droneshield receives three standalone follow-on contracts from EU military valued at $61.6m, cash payment expected in Q3-4 of 2025 (DRO)

• Global Data Centre Group to delist from ASX, after distributing its AirTrunk assets to shareholders, it no longer owns any digital infrastructure and cannot make new investments without raising fresh capital (GDC)

• Paladin Energy CEO Ian Purdy steps down, COO Paul Hemburrow appointed CEO effective 1-Sep, company commences search for new COO (PDN)

• Pinnacle Investment Management MD Ian Macoun discloses sale of 3.9m shares, owns 14.3m shares after the transaction, pledges to not sell any more shares for the next three months (PNI)

• SRG Global awarded $850m of contracts across several sectors including water, energy, industrials, resources, education, data centres and more (SRG)

• Xero preps monster $2bn capital raising to acquire New York-based accounting and payments platform Melio Payments (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Slow start: Our market has already reacted to the Israel-Iran truce on Tuesday, so futures are pointing towards a relatively flattish start as the market awaits further updates and catalysts.

• Lithium: Chinese lithium carbonate futures rallied 3.0% to 60,700 yuan a tonne on Tuesday. This drove a late surge for names like Pilbara Minerals (+6.6%). It'll be interesting to see if this trend can continue.

• Gold, Energy: Both commodities continued to grind lower overnight, giving back recent gains.

• Virgin day 2: Solid day one performance for Virgin, closing at $3.23 or 11.3% above its IPO offer price of $2.90. Let's see if it continues to catch a bid.

BROKER MOVES

• Adairs downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $2.10 from $2.65 (BP)

• Boss Energy downgraded to Sell from Neutral; but target up to $3.50 from $3.30 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 25 Jun: None

• Thu 26 Jun: None

• Fri 27 June: Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.046, Centuria Capital Group (CNI) – $0.052, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.041, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.063, Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR) – $0.124, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.038, Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) – $0.109, Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, National Storage REIT (NSR) – $0.056, Region Group (RGN) – $0.07, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.041

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Infragreen Group (IFN) at 11:00 am 

• AGMs: The Star Entertainment (SGR)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

• 12:00 am: Fed Chair Powell Testimony