ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 25th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, June 25. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 flat as miners sink, banks rally

[4:50 pm] Signing off – The S&P/ASX 200 finished flat and traded within a relatively narrow range, taking a breather after Tuesday's 0.95% rally. Two heavyweights sectors – Financials (+1.15%) and Materials (-1.27%) – moved in opposite directions, highlighting a deteriorating commodity complex (mostly iron ore and China) and continued flows into the Big Four Banks.

The $200 tag for Commonwealth Bank feels inevitable (without any further explanation), as it rallied another 1.7% to close at $191.40.

Overall, today's price action suggests a bit of a holding pattern, as the market awaits clarity on two key catalysts: further developments on the Israel-Iran truce and the looming Trump tariff deadline.

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AMP's take on today's inflation print

[3:21 pm] AMP economist My Bui says today's cooler-than-expected inflation data, coupled with the recent sluggish GDP growth outcome, means "that the RBA is likely to cut rates further throughout this year. Money markets have now priced in a 94% of a cut in two weeks (up significantly from just 85% yesterday)."

"We also see the economy needing a boost from looser monetary policy, with RBA cuts in July, August, November this year and February next year, taking the cash rate to 2.85%."

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Pinnacle shares slump 4% on MD selldown

[2:48 pm] Shares in Pinnacle Investment Management are under pressure following this morning's announcement that Managing Director Ian Macoun had offloaded 3.9 million shares. The selldown represents 21.4% of his total shareholder and 1.73% of total issued shares.

Macoun said he will not sell any more shares for at least three months and notes that most of the proceeds will be allocated in "funds managed by Metrics which provide an attractive yield."

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Gold stocks broadly lower

[2:42 pm] Its a sea of red for gold miners after gold prices tumbled 1.65% overnight to US$3,327 an ounce. Both Israel and Iran said they will keep the peace and not break the ceasefire unless the other does so first.

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Collins Foods extends gains

[2:33 pm] Collins Foods shares surged another 11.2% today, building on Tuesday's massive 17.3% rally after the KFC operator delivered a better-than-expected FY25 result that exceeded Macquarie estimates across key metrics.

• Revenue up 2.1% to $1.52bn, in-line with Macquarie estimates

• Underlying EBITDA flat at $228.5m vs. $219.4m ests (4.1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT down 14.8% to $51.1m vs. $44.3m ests (15.3% beat)

• Fully franked final dividend of 15 cents per share vs. 10.2 cents ests (47% beat)

Germany has emerged as a compelling medium-term growth opportunity, with the company reporting improved sales trends and solid store-level economics. Management's decision to exit Taco Bell was well-received as necessary portfolio optimisation, while strong cash generation and reduced debt levels have positioned Collins with enhanced capacity for strategic expansion.

Notable analysts updates from this morning include:

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, raised target from $10.00 to $10.40

• Macquarie retained Neutral, raised target from $8.20 to $8.40

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Humm Group confirms takeover offer

[12:48 pm] Humm Group has received a non-binding, conditional takeover offer at 58 cents per share, representing a 20.8% premium to its last traded price. The offer comes from The Abercrombie Group, the family office of Humm's Chairman Andrew Abercrombie, which already holds a 26.6% stake in the company.

The stock abruptly rallied 11% on Tuesday, with the AFR noting that an unidentified "opportunistic suitor" is looking at the company.

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Sectors on the move: Banks, Coal and Staples

[12:45 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is currently down 0.07%, after briefly trading 0.25% in early trade. Here are a few sectors of interest:

Banks: The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index is up 0.81%, to record levels. Commonwealth Bank is the main driver behind this move, up 1.1% and trading above the $190 level for the first time on record. The other major banks are also up around 0.4-1.7%.

Coal: Coal stocks are broadly lower, notably Stanmore (-6.2%), Terracom (-2.2%), New Hope (-1.95%) and Whitehaven (-1.7%).

Materials: The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is down 1.55%, largely reflecting declines from BHP (-1.6%) and Fortescue (-2.1%).

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Australian inflation falls to 2.1%

[11:45 am] Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index rose 2.1% year-on-year in May, down from 2.4% in April and the lowest since October 2024. The print was also below market expectations of 2.3%.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the ABS report:

• The largest contributor to the annual movement was Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.9 per cent). This was followed by Housing (+2.0 per cent) and Alcohol and tobacco (+5.9 per cent).

• "Annual trimmed mean inflation was 2.4 per cent in May 2025, down from 2.8 per cent in April. This is the lowest annual trimmed mean inflation rate since November 2021," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics.

• Rents rose 4.5 per cent in the 12 months to May, following a 5.0 per cent rise in the 12 months to April. This is the lowest annual growth in rental prices since December 2022, consistent with smaller increases in advertised rents and stable vacancy rates across most capital cities.

• Electricity prices fell 5.9 per cent in the 12 months to May, compared to a 6.5 per cent fall in the 12 months to April.

• Automotive fuel prices fell 10.0 per cent in the 12 months to May and are the lowest since September 2022. In monthly terms, fuel prices fell 2.9 per cent in May due to lower global oil prices at that time.

Source: ABS

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Small caps making moves

[11:00 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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E&P's take on Xero

[10:28 am] Evan's and Partners analyst Paul Mason gives his take on Xero's US$2.5 billion (A$3.9bn) acquisition of Melio.

• Strategic Fit: Aligns with Xero’s 3x3 strategy and Melio’s syndication network (35% of revenue) with partners like Fiserv, CapitalOne, Gusto, and Shopify seen as a key differentiator.

• Potential Synergies: Opportunity to cross-sell Melio into Xero’s base, enhancing payments earnings, possible broader distribution of Xero’s accounting software via partners like Fiserv/Clover.

• Market Opportunity: Payments address a wider US SME market (~24m businesses), including those avoiding cloud accounting due to cash economy preferences, unlike Xero’s core product.

• Valuation and Financing: Acquisition at 13.4x EV/Revenue multiple on Melio’s US$187M revenue (loss-making business).

• Financial Impact: Melio’s losses pause Xero’s operating leverage, US$70m revenue and US$20m cost synergies expected by FY28, aiming for Rule of 40 (~31 including SBP).

• Analyst View: Neutral rating with $186 target, the acquisition price seen as high but justified if strategic synergies are achieved.

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Webjet block-trade crosses at 90 cents

[9:53 am] A 10.6 million-share block trade has crossed at 90 cents a piece, representing approximately 2.7% of the company.

Helloworld remains the key suspect as the company has been aggressively buying Webjet shares over the past nine months. Its latest transaction (21-May) included adding 5.3% to its holding, bringing total ownership to over 15%.

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Citi cuts Treasury Wine target

[9:48 am] Treasury Wine provided a divisional FY26 guidance on Tuesday, which included:

• Penfolds to see low to mid double digit EBITS growth

• Treasury Americas Luxury to see EBITS growth

Citi says the update lacks clarity, leading to ongoing uncertainty through CY26, despite the board’s confidence shown via a share buyback and new CEO starts 27 October 2025. The analysts retained a Neutral rating but cut their target price from $8.68 to $8.50.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

• California's DAOU Challenges: DAOU’s outlook is uncertain as FY26 synergies (US$30m, with U$5m in FY25) are offset by weaker performance and risks from the RNDC distributor transition, primarily impacting the Americas and Collective divisions.

• Penfolds Concerns: Uncertainty persists over Penfolds, with potential further downgrades as FY26 sales focus shifts to Asia (ex-China), demand challenges in most markets (except Thailand) and risks of grey channel imports to China could undermine pricing.

• Penfolds China Outlook: Cautious growth prospects for Penfolds in China due to weaker demand for premium products like Grange and 707, potentially impacting NTA calculations.

• Earnings Revisions: FY26e and FY27e NPAT cut by -4% and -5%, respectively; FY26e EPS down -1%, FY27e EPS unchanged due to a planned 5% share buyback in FY26.

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SRG Global secures $850m of contracts

[9:45 am] SRG Global says it has secured $850 million worth of contracts in blue-chip, repeat clients across Australia and New Zealand, spanning sectors including water, energy, industrials, resources, health, education, defence, transport, data centres and commercial sectors.

The contracts have various start and end dates, many of which will start immediately and forecast to be complete by mid 2026.

To add some perspective, SRG has a market cap of $950 million – so pretty wild to see contract wins worth almost more than the entire company.

Interestingly, SRG announced a similar announcement on 19-Nov-24, where it won $700 million worth of contracts with repeat clients. On this day, the stock rallied 6.7%.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: SRG Global (SRG)

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Insider Selldown: Pinnacle Investment Management

[9:36 am] Pinnacle's managing director Ian Macoun offloaded 3.9 million shares, representing:

• 21.4% of his total shareholding

• 1.73% of total issued shares in Pinnacle

• Post transaction, Macoun will continue to hold 14.3 million shares or 6.3% of issued capital

Macoun says he will not sell any more shares for the next three months.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI)

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Droneshield receives massive contract

[9:34 am] Droneshield received a package of three standalone follow-on contracts from the European military, valued at $61.6 million.

The company expects to deliver all equipment throughout the third quarter of 2025, with cash payments expected in the second half of the year.

"This is the biggest single order in DroneShield’s history and is larger than the company’s entire revenue for 2024 ($57.5m). Importantly, DroneShield’s recent production and inventory holding expansion means that this order is expected to be fully delivered within the quarter," the company siad in a statement.

To add some perspective:

• Droneshield has rallied massively in the past month, likely driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

• The stock rallied as much as 47% this month, but recent truce talks have eased monthly gains to 35%

• Prior 'big' contract wins have driven considerable upside, including $32.2m in Asia Pacific contracts (14-Apr) drove the stock up 16%

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Droneshield (DRO)

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Paladin Energy CEO steps down

[9:25 am] Paladin Energy's CEO Ian Purdy is stepping down, with COO Paul Hemburrow to take the reigns from 1 September 2025. Mr Purdy has "provided support for the process and will remain available to assist the Board and executive team until the end of his notice period in mid-December."

Paladin has commenced a search for a new COO.

According to our database, Mr Purdy does not own any shares in the company.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Paladin Energy (PDN)

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Xero to acquire Melio for $3.9bn in cash and scrip

[9:21 am] Xero shares were halted this morning as the company entered into a binding agreement to acquire 100% of New York-based Melio for $3.9 billion in cash and scrip.

Melio is a leading US SMB bill pay platform that seamlessly integrates accounting and payments, offering US SMBs and their advisors easy-to-use accounts payable workflows and a wide choice of payment methods.

Here are the key highlights of the acquisition:

• Capital raising: Xero is undertaking a $1.85bn institutional placement and $200m share purchase plan at $176 per new share or a 9.4% discount to its $194.21 closing price on 24 June

• Scrip and funding: Xero will issue $360m worth of shares to existing Melio shareholders, also leaning on $400m revolving credit facility and $600m of existing cash

• About Melio: The takeover values Melio at a multiple of 13.4x based on Mar-25 annualised revenue of $187m. The company has delivered a revenue CAGR of 127% between FY21-25, also improved its transaction margin from 7% in FY23 to 20% in FY25 due to scale benefits and higher-fee products

• Rationale: Combined business to significant accelerate US revenue growth and Group margin, Xero expects this to support the doubling of Group revenues by FY28, excluding synergies

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Xero (XRO)

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Powell stresses patience

[9:08 am] Powell's semiannual testimony to congress (day one of two), largely reiterated comments from last week's interest rate decision. The key takeaways include:

• Economy: GDP growth solid at 2.5% last year; first quarter dipped due to tariff-driven export swings.

• Labour market: Strong with 4.2% unemployment, with 124,000 monthly job gains and moderating wage growth.

• Inflation: Above 2% target (PCE 2.3%, core 2.6% as of May), tariff-driven near-term expectations up but long-term outlook stable.

• Monetary policy: Rates remain steady at 4.25-4.50%, policy decisions to be data-driven, monitoring tariff impacts.

• Tariff effects: Likely to raise prices and slow activity, though effects may be temporary.

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Global Data Centre to delist from ASX

[9:00 am] Global Data Centre has applied to the ASX for delisting under Listing Rule 17.11. The exchange has provided in-principle approval subject to specific conditions. The company's rationale for the move includes:

• GDC ceased new investments in digital infrastructure assets from 17 April 2023.

• Disposed of all digital infrastructure assets, including the last asset (AirTrunk interest) on 24 December 2024.

• Returned net proceeds from asset disposals to shareholders, including a distribution of $1.44 per share announced on 29 May 2025.

• Post-disposal, GDC’s assets consist entirely of cash and cash equivalents, with no capacity for new investments without raising new capital or amending the investment strategy.

• Following the AirTrunk Distribution, GDC plans to delist and wind up its funds in accordance with their constitutions and applicable laws.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Global Data Centre (GDG)

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What's driving stocks?

[8:55 am] Major US benchmarks – S&P 500 (+1.11%), Nasdaq (+1.43%) and Dow (+1.19%) – rallied and finished near session highs overnight. The S&P 500 is now within 1% of all-time highs, while the Nasdaq is ~1.3% away from its December peak.

• A feeble Iran-Israel ceasefire appears to be holding after Trump blasted both sides for mutual attacks in the early hours of the truce

• Though tariff and trade developments were less positive, with the US struggling to land deals with key trading partners ahead of the 9 Jul deadline

• Brent crude finished the overnight session 3.7% lower to US$67.7 a barrel, now down 15% since its brief U$80.34 high on Tuesday

• Powell delivered his semiannual testimony to congress, reiterated patience and the need to wait for more data before making policy adjustments

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Good morning!

[8:40 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 5pts (+0.05%). This follows a 0.95% rally on Tuesday, which recouped five days of prior losses and pushed the index back to within 0.4% of all-time highs.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.