Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 nears record high + Uranium, silver and lithium miners rally

ASX 200 futures are down 3pts (-0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• The ASX was closed on Monday, so the market will effectively be pricing in two overnight sessions worth of price-action and catalysts

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced a sharp rally on last Friday, largely driven by strong employment numbers and de-escalation between Trump/Musk

• Overnight session was relatively flat for major US benchmarks, though commodity markets (silver, copper, uranium and lithium) finished sharply higher

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher over the last two sessions, with gains mostly coming from the Friday session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished relatively higher overnight after a sharp rally on Friday, with the S&P 500 now ~20% above post-Liberation Day lows and within 2.5% of all-time highs 

• US last-two sessions: Russell 2000 (+2.25%), Nasdaq (+1.52%), S&P 500 (+1.12%), Dow (+1.04%)

• US weekly recap: Russell 2000 (+3.19%), Nasdaq (+2.18%), S&P 500 (+1.50%), Dow (+1.17%)

• Key drivers – Solid US employment numbers, potential de-escalation of Trump-Musk feud, resumption of US-China trade talks this week in London, Trump said to replace Powell soon

• Appetite for long-term gov't debt slumps, driving up global yields (FT)

• Investors poured $651m into the Direxion 2x TSLA ETF, its largest weekly inflow since 2002 debut (BBG)

• Junk-bond sales surging amid high demand, expected resurgence of trade tensions in July (FT)

• US corporate cash levels have fallen nearly 1% compared to the last three months of 2024, sparking concerns about credit quality (BBG)

• Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lift yea-rend targets for S&P 500, citing resilient economic growth and improved earnings outlook (BBG)

• AI infrastructure stocks soar as Big Tech boosts spending, restoring investor confidence (BBG)

STOCKS

• Meta in talks for $10bn investment in Scale AI (BBG)

• Walmart CFO says customers' wallets are stretched, but there's been little change in overall spending behavior (BBG)

• Microsoft hits new record high, up over 30% from April low and continuing post-earnings momentum (BBG)

• Apple faces challenges with AI, tariffs, Google payments, and App Store fees, impacting stock ahead of WWDC (WSJ)

• Amazon plans to invest over $5bn in Taiwan data centers, supporting a new AWS cloud region (RT)

• Lululemon shares nosedive after cutting FY 25 earnings guidance, citing a "dynamic macroenvironment" and tariff impacts (CNBC )

CENTRAL BANKS

• Citi forecasts three US rate cuts this year, starting in September, after strong job growth (RT)

• ECB signals end of rate cuts as Lagarde declares policy "well calibrated" amid uncertainty (BBG)

• Trump says his decision on Powell's replacement coming "very soon" (RT)

• PBOC announces surprise 1tn yuan outright reverse repo operation, likely aimed at averting liquidity crunch (BBG)

• Reserve Bank of India delivers larger-than-expected 50 bp rate cut and makes surprise liquidity injection, but policy bias back to neutral (BBG)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• US and China resume trade talks on Monday, talks seek to resolve issues such as rare-earth export tariffs and restrictions on advanced technology (BBG)

• China plans to expedite rare earth export licenses for US and European auto companies, easing supply concerns (CNBC)

• Automakers face a magnet supply crisis due to Chinese export curbs, risking production shutdowns (RT)

• Japan-US tariff deal is "unlikely" before the G7 summit, according to Tokyo negotiator Akazawa (NK)

• Trump and Canada PM Carney in direct talks over trade but more work needed to reach agreement (BBG)

• Container shipping rates show signs of moderating after tariff-induced jump (RT)

• Musk signals openness to making peace with Trump, says Dragon won't be decommissioned (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China CPI falls 0.1% year-on-year in May, marking a fourth straight month of deflation, while factory deflation persisted into a 32nd month, with producer prices falling the most in nearly two years (BBG)

• China May exports up 4.8%, but exports to the US plunged 34.5% ( CNBC)

• China's rare earth exports up 23% in May, but still below last year's levels (BBG)

• Japan Q1 GDP fell at an annualised pace of 0.2%, a less severe drop than 0.7% forecasts due to consumers trength (BBG)

• US May payrolls was 139,000 vs. 130,000 consensus, unemployment unchanged and in-line at 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth of 0.4% month-on-month vs. 0.3% estimates (BBG) 

• Eurozone GDP rose 0.6% in Q1, double the previous estimate, driven by surging exports from Ireland and Germany (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 rebalance – Austal and Nick Scali added, Healius and Stanmore Resources removed, effective prior to open 23-Jun

• CBA completes previously announced sale of Bank of Hangzhou for approx $940m, to deliver pro forma uplift in CET1 ratio by ~17 bps (CBA)

• GemLife secures firm bids for $750m IPO ahead of broader bookbuild opening this week (AFR)

• Metcash guides to FY25 underlying NPAT of $273-277m vs. $269m consensus, to merge independent hardware and Total Tools (MTS)

• NextDC reports pro forma contracted utilisation of 244MW as of 31 May 2025, up 7% vs. 6-May (NXT)

• Rio Tinto provides update on Oyu Tolgoi mine plan, development work in the Entree JV area now paused until necessary transfer or licence is processed by the Mongolian government, ramp-up schedule remains on track for 500ktpa of copper from 2028 (RIO)

• Vault Minerals and Regis Resources lead the race to acquire Bellevue Gold, sale process has entered its second round, Northern Star has withdrawn interest (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Uranium, Lithium and Silver: Plenty of commodities making big moves over the last two sessions. Global X Uranium (URA) ETF surged 4.5% overnight and up 6.0% in the last two sessions. Silver prices are surging, up 3% in the last two sessions and trading at US$36/oz for the first time since March 2012. The Rare earth/Strategic Metal ETF (REMX) gained 2.8% overnight to close at the highest level since 14-May, which could point to some strength for volatile lithium miners.

BROKER MOVES

• Austral downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $5.90 from $4.75 (MQG)

• Develop Global reiterated Buy; target up to $5.00 from $4.00 (BP)

• Domino’s Pizza downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $24 from $37.40 (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 10 Jun: Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.125, Tasmea (TEA) – $0.12

• Wed 11 Jun: Infratil (IFT) – $0.104, Tower (TWR) – $0.074

• Thu 12 Jun: Champion Iron (CIA) – $0.112, Transmetro Corporation (TCO) – $0.05

• Fri 13 Jun: Dyno Nobel (DNL) – $0.024

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Amcor (AMC), Global Data Centre Group (GDC), Waypoint REIT (WPR)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• 11:30 am: Australia Business Confidence (May)

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment Rate (Apr)