Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 ekes out record close + Lynas, Medibank, South32 earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 3pts (+0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks continued to climb, with the S&P 500 eking out a fresh all-time high

• Nvidia reported its Q2 earnings after market close, shares currently down around 3% post market on relatively solid numbers

• Another massive day for earnings, with names like IDP Education, Medibank, Qantas and South32 due to report

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended higher to close near best levels levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels, with the S&P 500 closing at fresh all-time highs

• Lower bond yields buoyed the market, with the US 2-year yield down 6 bps to 3.61%, the lowest in four months

• Today’s key drivers – A relatively quiet session with no major directional drivers, markets largely in waiting mode for Nvidia results (released after hours) and PCE inflation on Friday

• Year-to-date US buybacks hit $1tn in late August, their fastest climb to that level (BBG)

• French 30-year bond yield soars to 14-year high amid investor worries over political outlook and finances (BBG)

• US equity stake in Intel raises concerns of government meddling, particularly after Trump's call for CEO to step down (RT)

• Trump weighing stakes in defense contractors, stocks like Lockheed Martin rally (CNBC)

• Trump's moves against Fed risk fueling upward pressure on long-end yields from concerns over government debt (BBG)

NVIDIA EARNINGS

• Nvidia reported Q2 earnings after market close, shares currently down around 3% post market

• Revenue up 56% year-on-year to $46.74bn vs. $46.23bn (1.1% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 54% to $1.05 vs. $1.01 ests (4% beat)

• Data centre revenue up 56% to $41.1bn vs. $41.25bn ests (0.3% miss)

• Q3 revenue guidance $54.0bn vs. $52.5bn ests (2.9% beat)

• “Growth was driven by demand for our accelerated computing platform used for large language models, recommendation engines & generative & agentic AI applications."

• "Production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping at full speed, and demand is extraordinary ...The AI race is on, and Blackwell is the platform at its center."

• “... everything is sold out. H100s are sold out. H200s are sold out. Large CSPs are renting capacity from other CSPs. AI-native startups are scrambling to get capacity so that they can train their reasoning models. Demand is really, really high."

TARIFFS

• US tariff revenue could be well over $500 billion a year (YF)

• Brazilian pig iron producers negotiate with US buyers amid trade duty concerns (BBG)

• EU to propose eliminating tariffs on US industrial goods this week, responding to Trump's demands for trade stability (BBG)

• Trump's 50% tariffs on India go into effect, risking weighing on GDP growth from slump in trade (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump's moves against Fed heighten fiscal dominance risks (RT)

• Bessent urges Powell to conduct internal review of the Fed amid Cook mortgage fraud allegations (BBG)

• Trump administration looking at ways to exert more influence over Fed's 12 regional banks (BBG)

• Bank of Korea expected to keep rates paused Friday, as officials balance tariff-related headwinds against surging home prices (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China industrial profits decline at a slower pace, as manufacturer strength offsets mining weakness (BBG)

• Australia monthly inflation spikes amid unwinding of energy bill subsidies (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Today's massive day for earnings, and we’ll be covering all the key results as they drop. Follow our Live Blog for the latest company announcements, consensus numbers, market moves, and economic updates.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Lithium: Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) charging ahead to the highest level since December 2023. Pilbara Minerals (+8.8%) also rallied strongly on Wednesday to the highest level since Feb-25.

• Day twos: Keen to see how some of yesterday's beats perform, including Lovisa (now facing analyst downgrades), Sigma Healthcare and Nine Entertainment. Meanwhile poor results from Domino's (-22%), Wisetech (-11%) and Woolworths (14.6%) will likely face consensus downgrades, possibly ratings cuts.

BROKER MOVES

• Flight Centre upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target raised to $16 from $15 (RBC)

• Lovisa Holdings downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target raised to $42 from $35 (MS)

• Lovisa Holdings downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target raised to $40.90 from $33.40 (MQG)

• National Australia Bank upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target raised to $42.50 from $39.80 (MS)

• Nine Entertainment downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target down to $1.75 from $1.80 (GS)

• Sigma Healthcare upgraded to Hold from Sell; target raised to $2.85 from $2.00 (BP)

• Supply Network downgraded to Neutral from Positive; target up to $35.38 from $35.06 (E&P)

• Tabcorp upgraded to Positive from Neutral; target up to $1.04 from $0.73 (E&P)

• WiseTech Global downgraded to Neutral from Positive; target cut to $123 from $142 (E&P)

• WiseTech Global downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform; target cut to $120 from $130 (RBC)

• Woolworths Group downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $30.50 from $33.40 (MS)

• Woolworths Group downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $30.30 from $33.40 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 28 Aug: Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.28, Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.06, Boom Logistics (BOL) – $0.02, Cuscal (CCL) – $0.055, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI) – $0.059, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.09, Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.013, Heartland Group (HGH) – $0.018, Ignite (IGN) – $0.035, IPH (IPH) – $0.195, Liberty Financial Group (LFG) – $0.15, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.007, REA Group (REA) – $1.38, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.06, 360 Capital Group (TGP) – $0.40, Ventia Services Group (VNT) – $0.107, Woodside Energy (WDS) – $0.813

• Fri 29 Aug: Ampol (ALD) – $0.40, Ansell (ANN) – $0.436, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.68, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.247, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.43, Infomedia (IFM) – $0.02, Ingenia Communities (INA) – $0.044, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.04, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.014, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.013, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.013, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.009, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Platinum Capital (PMC) – $0.03, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.06, Shape Australia (SHA) – $0.125

• Mon 1 Sep: Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.09, Aurizon (AZJ) – $0.065, Fortescue (FMG) – $0.60, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.12, Helloworld Travel (HLO) – $0.06, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.305, Lion Selection Group (LSX) – $0.02, Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.27, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.013, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.07

• Tue 2 Sep: Alliance Aviation (AQZ) – $0.03, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – $0.33, Codan (CDA) – $0.16, Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.063, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.09, MA Financial (MAF) – $0.06, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.30, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, Santos (STO) – $0.209, Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.05

• Wed 3 Sep: Downer EDI (DOW) – $0.141, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.13, Hitech Group (HIT) – $0.05, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Mercury NZ (MCY) – $0.131, Monadelphous (MND) – $0.39, Netwealth (NWL) – $0.21, Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.264, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Peter Warren Automotive (PWR) – $0.04, Praemium (PPS) – $0.013, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.30, Seek (SEK) – $0.22, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Shaver Shop (SSG) – $0.055, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.63, Universal Store (UNI) – $0.165, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.06

• Thu 4 Sep: Acumentis (ACU) – $0.002, Amcor (AMC) – $0.196, BHP (BHP) – $0.92, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.16, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.075, Reliance Worldwide (RWC) – $0.038, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Sky Network TV (SKT) – $0.122, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.059, Wotso (WOT) – $0.013, Yancoal (YAL) – $0.062

• Fri 5 Sep: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Coles (COL) – $0.32, Microequities Asset Management (MAM) – $0.02, Objective Corporation (OCL) – $0.13, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peet (PPC) – $0.05, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.028

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Alcoa (AAI), FSA Group (FSA), Mirvac (MGR), Wellard (WLD)

• Larger Cap Earnings: Atlas Arteria (ALX), Dicker Data (DDR), Eagers Automotive (APE), Fineos (FCL), Generation Development Group (GDG), Harvey Norman (HVN), IGO (IGO), IDP Education (IEL), Lynas (LYC), Medibank (MPL), Nickel Industries (NIC), Paladin Energy (PDN), Perpetual (PPT), Perseus (PRU), Qantas (QAN), Ramsay Healthcare (RHC), Sandfire Resources (SFR), SmartGroup (SIQ), South32 (S32), TPG Telecom (TPG), Wesfarmers (WES).

• Small-to-Mid Cap Earnings: Airtasker (ART), Appen (APX), Australian Ethical (AEF), Beacon Lighting (BLX), Betr Entertainment (BBT), Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT), Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV), Horizon Oil (HZN), Impedimed (IPD), Lifestyle Communities (LIC), Metal Powder Works (MPW), Omni Bridgeway (OBL), Orthocell (OCC), Resimac (RMC), Solvar (SVR), The Star (SGR), Titomic (TTT), Trajan Group (TRJ).

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 pm: US Q2 GDP