Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Russell 2000 extends record streak, Gold and silver at all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are down 7 pts (-0.07%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher but off best levels, S&P 500 and Nasdaq still slightly negative for the week

• Russell 2000 hit fresh all-time highs and outperformed the S&P 500 for a 14th straight session

• Stocks continued to trend higher after Trump softened his stance on Greenland, more details about the NATO deal suggest potential mineral rights but sovereignty not on the table

• Another massive session for commodities, with gold, silver and platinum all trading at record highs

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trades mostly sideways, closing higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher amid a relatively rangebound session, closed off best levels

• Russell 2000 recorded second consecutive all-time high and outperformed the S&P 500 for a 14th straight session, the longest streak since 1996

• Hedge funds saw record $116bn in inflows in 2025, highest since 2007 (BBG)

• Natural gas prices surge amid massive US winter storm (YF)

• Retail traders' record stock appetite fueled by 'new year' momentum, says JPMorgan (SW)

• Goldman Sachs raises gold price forecast to US$5,400, citing strong demand from central banks and private investors (BBG)

• Vanguard cuts UK stocks and bond exposure across its £52bn fund range (FT)

• Kospi breaks 5,000 for first time driven by AI chip boom and corporate governance reforms (FT)

STOCKS

• Apple to release revamped Siri as company's first chatbot in 2H26 (BBG)

• BofA, Citigroup exploring options to offer credit cards with 10% interest rate as olive branch with White House (BBG)

• Paramount banking on European regulators blocking Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery deal (CNBC)

• SpaceX taps banks for likely largest IPO ever as soon as this year (FT)

• US and China sign off on deal to sell TikTok's US business to consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake (SMF)

• Workday CEO calls narrative that AI is killing software 'overblown' (CNBC)

• OpenAI in talks with Middle East investors to raise at least $50bn, valuing company at $750-830bn (BBG)

• Anthropic revenue run rate exceeds $9bn, new funding round could easily top $20bn (BBG)

• Alibaba preparing for IPO of its semiconductor business (BBG)

• Valero and Phillips 66 buy first Venezuelan crude cargoes from Vitol under US-Caracas export deal (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Former Dutch central bank chief Knot most likely to succeed ECB's Lagarde (BBG)

• Norges Bank holds rates at 4%, reaffirms patient approach as inflation remains elevated (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump claims 'infinite deal' with NATO's Rutte on Greenland respecting Danish sovereignty (AX)

• Trump says Greenland deal framework includes rare-earth mineral rights for US and NATO allies (CNN)

• Trump's NATO deal could lead to US missiles, mining in Greenland, but sovereignty not on the table (BBG)

• Trump threatens retaliation if Europe sells US assets in response to Greenland threats (BBG)

• US pushing Ukraine and Russia to meet in Abu Dhabi later this week on possible deal to end war (FT)

ECONOMY

• US Q3 GDP up 4.4% year-on-year vs. 4.3% consensus, marks the strongest back-to-back quarter for growth since 2021 (BBG)  

• Japan posts fifth consecutive trade deficit in 2025 but halves shortfall amid lower energy prices and record exports (NHK)

• Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly falls to 4.1% in December (ABC)

• South Korea GDP unexpectedly contracts 0.3% in Q4 amid broad weakness in domestic demand (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Fairly busy morning with a few high-profile quarterlies from Life360 and Alcoa, I'll break down the key numbers in the blog

• Brazilian Rare Earths holder Paulo Roberto Santoro Salomao and Metal Mining Ventures cuts stake from 13.07% to 6.91% (BRE)

• Capstone Copper responds to media reports relating to the status of its Mantoverde operations, where a union strike commenced on 2-Jan, sulphide operations currently halted amid disruptions to facility operations at the desalination plant, TSX-listed shares down 3.1% overnight (CSC)

• GenusPlus Group provides FY26 normalised EBITDA of at least 35% year-on-year growth vs. prior guidance of 20-25% and 23% consensus, revised guidance on better-than-expected performance from infrastructure segments (GNP)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• GenusPlus: The above guidance upgrade was announced at 3:28 pm AEST, price action was extremely volatile when the stock resumed trading at 3:40 pm. The upgrade looks sizable both at face value and vs. consensus, so it’ll be interesting to see if it continues trending higher today.

• Commodities strength: Another very strong session for commodities, with platinum (+6.6%) at record highs, silver (+3.2%) at record highs of US$96/oz, gold (+1.8%) and just ~US$80/oz away from US$5,000, nickel and aluminium slightly higher, Chinese lithium carbonate futures finished 2.5% higher on Thursday.

• Gold: Local gold stocks faced a broad-based selloff on Thursday, with most names down 5-9%. However, Gold Miners ETF rallied 3.8% overnight and back at record highs. It'll be interesting to see if local names can recoup yesterday's losses.

BROKER MOVES

• Bank of Queensland upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $6.30 from $6.10 (JPM)

• Netwealth upgraded to Outperform from Neutral but target cut to $32.40 from $33.05 (MQG)

• Nine Entertainment downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $1.20 from $1.45 (JPM)

• Northern Star downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $26.90 from $29.45 (UBS)

• South32 upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $4.90 from $.00 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 23 Jan: Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.045

• Mon 26 Jan: None 

• Tue 27 Jan: Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.038

• Wed 28 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Premier Investments (PMV) – $0.50, Ricegrowers (SGLLV) – $0.20

• Earnings: Alcoa (AAI)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:00 am: Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI (JAN)

• 10:30 am: Japan Inflation (Dec)

• 2:00 pm: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 0.75%)

• 6:00 pm: UK Retail Sales (Dec)

• 8:00 pm: Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI (JAN)