Morning Wrap: ASX 200 eyes a record open, S&P 500 posts strongest week since April, Gold prices soar

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks closed out its strongest week since April, with the S&P 500 closing at record highs as an unexpected US jobs miss eased Fed rate hike expectations

• July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against ests for an 80,000 gain, marking the softest print since Feb-26 and a fourth straight month of deceleration

• Over the weekend, Trump introduced a new 15% polysilicon tariff and a $3bn US critical minerals, package, Berkshire Hathaway swing into a net equity buyer for the first time in 14 quarters, and Trump is reportedly considering ending the Iran war without a nuclear deal

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks higher and finished near best levels, though the S&P 500 was the only index to close at all-time highs

• A solid tech-led session, where the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.69%) performed in-line with the cap-weighted index

• VIX closed at 14.9, hovering near the lows of its 52-week range (13.3-35.3), leaving options markets pricing minimal near-term stress

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+5.19%), S&P 500 (+3.58%), Russell 2000 (+3.52%), Dow (+2.96%)

• BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator jumped to 9.7 from 9.4, the highest reading since 2021, triggering Michael Hartnett's first formal sell signal in five years, urging clients to rotate into defensives (INV)

• Investors rotate back into European equities as strong earnings and easing Mideast tensions revive inflows (FT)

• South Korea stock turmoil eases as deleveraging progresses, though foreign selling persists (BBG)

• Japan said it intervened in FX markets three times during Golden Week, adding a third round to bolster the yen (BBG)

• Atlassian Q4 FY26 revenue up 28% to $1.77bn, ahead of ests by about 6%, EPS $1.87 beating ests by roughly 25%, shares surged 35% (BBG)

• Airbnb Q2 2026 revenue up 17% to $3.61bn, gross booking value up 16% to $27.2bn, EPS $1.37 beating ests by about 9%, FY26 guidance raised, shares rallied 17% (CNBC)

• Berkshire Hathaway Q2 2026 operating earnings up 16% to $12.98bn and net income more than doubled to $25.67bn, with cash falling to $365.5bn from a record $397.4bn (CNBC)

• Berkshire repurchased about $4.5bn of stock in the quarter, the most in five years, and turned a net buyer of equities for the first time in 14 quarters under CEO Greg Abel (CNBC)

• Alphabet entered Berkshire's five largest equity holdings by market value at the end of June, joining Apple, American Express, Bank of America and Coca-Cola (CNBC)

• Cloudflare gained ~5% after issuing solid full-year and current-quarter guidance, helping software lead the market higher after Thursday's sector selloff (CNBC)

• Trump is reportedly privately signaling he's willing to end Iran war without nuclear deal if the Strait opens (TI)

• Israel rejects 15-point plan backed by Trump aimed at disarming Hamas in Gaza (NYT)

• Iran says deal to reopen the Strait is nearing but its conditions must be met, including lifting the naval blockade, withdrawing forces and permanently ending the war (BBG)

• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Caine has privately told Trump administration advisers that Washington needs to find an off-ramp from the war, according to three sources (CNN)

• VP Vance said negotiations with Iran would be messy and take time, describing Tehran's decision-making system as fractured (CNN)

• Trump has privately complained that disclosures on dwindling US munitions stockpiles make Washington look weak at a critical point in negotiations (CNN)

• Trump signed a Section 232 proclamation imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon derivatives including ingots, wafers, solar cells and modules, taking effect 4 December (BBG)

• Trump touted ~$3bn of US critical minerals investments at a State Department roundtable, including a $1.4bn loan to Sila Nanotechnologies and $400m tied to scandium (BBG)

• Trump announced more than $180m in grants for mining education, warning half the current US mining workforce is set to retire within three years (CBS)

• Trump revived his effort to remove Fed Cook, with a letter dated 5 August giving her 21 days to respond to mortgage fraud allegations she denies (AX)

• US Treasury sold euros to buy yen in the 31 July joint intervention with Japan without informing the ECB beforehand, the FT reported, with Lagarde and Bessent speaking only afterwards (BBG)

• Fed Warsh remains prepared to hike rates in September if inflation readings run hot, while sticking with the central bank's leaner communication approach (FT)

• US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 in July against ests for a gain of about 80,000, the first monthly decline since February (CNBC)

• US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% against ests for it to hold steady, while the participation rate edged down to 61.4% (CNBC)

• China's July trade surplus widened to $112.5bn, beating ests of $107bn, though narrowing from June's $125.62bn as import growth of 27.5% outpaced the slowdown in exports (CNBC)

• Champion Iron chairman William O'Keeffe discloses the sale of 6.0m shares via Form 604, cutting his beneficial interest 14.4% to 35.6m shares (CIA)

• FleetPartners Group is expected to reject a $3.60/sh buyout proposal from SG Fleet Topco and Pacific Equity Partners, a premium to the $3.47 last close. Sources say Smart Group may lob a superior offer (The Aus)

• Newmont CFO Brian Tabolt discloses the sale of 11,400 shares via Form 4, cutting his direct holding 28.0% to 29,300 shares (NEM)

• oOh!media receives a raised offer from I Squared at $1.70/sh, with sources saying the board is likely to endorse the bid this morning (AFR)

• Sunrise Energy Metals is set to receive US$400m from the Pentagon as part of a reported ~US$2bn White House package to cut US reliance on Chinese battery and critical materials supply, with four companies funded including US$1.4bn to Sila Nanotechnologies (SRL)

• Tech and miners surge: Tech (+8.4%) and Materials (+7.5%) have been the two best performing ASX sectors over the past week, largely driven by better-than-expected software earnings on Wall Street and broad-based gains across the commodity complex. Atlassian's (+35.3%) massive one-day rally on Friday could drive some more positive flows into the software space. Meanwhile, gold surged 2.3% overnight and now up 6.5% in the last three sessions, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF rallied 7.1%. Lithium equities also rallied after Reuters reported that China's CATL shut its Jianxiawo lithium mine for maintenance. While copper prices dipped almost 2% to US$6.64/lb, the Global X Copper Miners ETF still managed to gain 2.2%.

• Charter Hall Retail REIT downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target up to $4.18 from $4.14 (Macquarie)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 10 Aug: Alcoa (AAI) – $0.101, Kapstream Investment Trust (KIT) – $0.013

• Tue 11 Aug: None

• Wed 12 Aug: Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Thu 13 Aug: Reckon (RKN) – $0.025, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $3.029

• Fri 14 Aug: Argo Investments (ARG) – $0.20, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.04, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.011

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: CAR Group (CAR), Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC), Stanmore Resources (SMR), Westpac (WBC) 

• IPOs: Elk Range Mining (ELK) at 12:00 pm 

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.