Evening Wrap: ASX 200 ends flat, CBA weighs, PME powers through $300 per share

In a nutshell:

• ASX 200 backs away from record levels, in a wobbly session

• CBA weighed on the index, whilst materials propped it up

• Gold pulled back after a three-session rally, oil retreated

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

[TBC Caption] ASX 200... (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• It was a wobbly session, with the index falling from the outset, only to recover in the back half of the session

• CBA was the biggest drag, whilst iron ore miners rallied - BHP jumped 5.5%

• Clearly there was some rotation at the top end - out of banks and into miners

• Iron ore rallied as much as 2% amid reports Beijing will to crack down on "disorderly" price competition

• Materials were supported by energy and healthcare, with communication services and financials the worst

• New ASX entrant, housing developer GemLife, closed 4.1% higher on debut

• Lithium stocks surged on hopes of China stimulus

• Retailers took a hit, led lower by JB Hi-Fi down 3%. Wesfarmers, Harvey Norman and Myer were also weaker

Economy

• Australia’s trade surplus shrank significantly in May 2025, coming in at AUD 2.24 billion - less than half of April’s revised AUD 4.86 billion and well below the anticipated AUD 5.0 billion.

• This marked the slimmest surplus since August 2020 and the contraction was the result of falling exports and rising imports.

• Export values declined 2.7% from the previous month to AUD 42.40 billion, the lowest in three months, following a 1.7% drop in April. A notable factor behind the decline was a 5.5% fall in exports to the United States, partly due to tariffs reinstated under the Trump administration.

• UBS economists brought forward RBA rate cut expectations to July from August, with one of Australia's top economic teams now forecasting a 25 basis point reduction next week

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +11.31% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – Rallied on the iron ore price, hopes of China stimulus

• +10.93% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - Miner sentiment

• +10.87% WIA Gold (WIA) – High-grade gold discovery

• +9.25% Regal Partners (RPL) – 1H25 performance fees estimate

• +8.65% Amaero (3DA) – No news

• +7.78% Pro Medicus (PME) – 2 new contract wins

• +7.14% 29Metals (29M) – Miner sentiment

Trading lower

• -18.18% Energy World Corporation (EWC) –No news

• -7.53% Ausgold (AUC) – Gold price weakness

• -7.44% G8 Education (GEM) – No news

• -6.31% Boss Energy (BOE) – No news

• -4.92% Titomic (TTT) – No news

Broker notes

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; Price Target: $50.00

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.26

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at Neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $64.00 from $61.00

ALS (ALQ)

• Initiated at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.45

AMP (AMP)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.44 from $1.34

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $0.90 from $1.00

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $43.00 from $45.00

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $40.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.40

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.95

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.35

Brightstar Resources (BTR)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.50

Cuscal (CCL)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.75

Codan (CDA)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.25

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Upgraded to Accumulate from Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.90

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.00

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $14.20 from $23.82

• Upgraded to Hold from Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $15.10 from $40.10

• Upgraded to Neutral from Negative at E&P; Price Target: $21.00 from $28.26

• Retained at Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $37.30

• Retained at Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $42.00 from $39.00

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.00

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $28.00 from $31.00

• Retained at Sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $18.00 from $30.00

Downer EDI (DOW)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50 from $5.73

DroneShield (DRO)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.60

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Upgraded to Hold from Lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.10

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.00

G8 Education (GEM)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.53

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.49

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Initiated at Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.80

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Initiated at Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.00

• Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.60

Helia Group (HLI)

• Retained at Underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.60

• Upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.25

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $89.80 from $84.80

• Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $79.50 from $63.00

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $110.00

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $49.00 from $50.00

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $216.00 from $199.00

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $115.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $105.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $18.10 from $19.40

Neurizon Therapeutics (NUZ)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.42

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi; Price Target: $33.65 from $26.50

• Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $27.90 from $24.30

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.70 from $12.10

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $12.10 from $11.70

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $9.00 from $8.00

• Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $6.00

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Downgraded to Sell from Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.75

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Initiated at Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.70

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $120.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Initiated at Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.75

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.90 from $1.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.50

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.10

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.80 from $2.55

Santana Minerals (SMI)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.18 from $1.30

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.18 from $1.30

• Retained at Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.85

SRG Global (SRG)

• Initiated at Buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $2.00

Santos (STO)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.90 from $9.20

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.20 from $7.90

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.50

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Upgraded to Trim from Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $13.04 from $12.65

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.68

• Initiated at Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.48

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $21.50

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $23.30 from $23.20

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Initiated at Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.50