ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 3rd July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 3. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

ASX 200 flat, hovering record levels

[4:30 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 finished flat after falling to lows of -0.63% around noon before staging a solid recovery back up to breakeven. The turnaround was powered entirely by a resources rally that highlighted the market's shifting dynamics.

Materials stocks did all the heavy lifting, surging 3.0% led by standout performances from BHP (+5.2%), South32 (+2.7%), Pilbara Minerals (+11.3%), and MinRes (+7.5%). The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index has now climbed 7.1% over the past eight sessions and closed above its key 200-day moving average.

There was a clear rotation into resources, at the expense of banks. Commonwealth Bank finished the session at lows, down 2.1% (and down 6.1% in the last six sessions).

The question now is whether this resource resurgence represents the long-awaited catalyst to bring CBA's stretched valuation back to normal levels.

More broadly, the index continues to chop around record levels, a natural pause as the market digests recent gains while awaiting catalysts like Friday's US jobs report, Trump's reciprocal tariff deadline, and the approaching August reporting season.

A tiny bounce for Domino's

[2:48 pm] Domino's has bounced 2.7%, stuck around the midpoint of today's trading range (+5.0% and +1.5%). The stock experienced a sharp 15.8% selloff on Wednesday, briefly down as much as 26.5% intraday.

The company announced the unexpected resignation of CEO Mark van Dyck. Mr Dyck was appointed less than nine months ago to lead a business reset, seeking to optimise costs and boost franchisee profitability.

Here's what analysts are saying about the move/CEO exit:

• Goldman Sachs: Maintains buy, target remains $37.30. CEO departure seen as premature and destabilising with uncertainty elevated ahead of key strategy event.

• RBC Capital Markets: Maintains sector perform, target lowered to $18 from $30. Leadership volatility undermines strategic credibility with European and Asian headwinds viewed as structural.

• Jefferies: Maintains buy, target remains $42. Market reaction seen as overly punitive short term with balance sheet viewed as manageable despite volatility.

• CLSA: Downgrades to hold from outperform, target lowered to $15.10 from $40.10. Strategic clarity delayed until new CEO appointed with departure signaling internal disarray.

Virgin Australia hovers $3.00

[1:46 pm] Virgin Australia has quietly retreated from its post-IPO euphoria, slumping around 11% from its brief high of $3.41 reached on Thursday, June 26. The airline stock has now declined in five of the past six trading sessions, settling back to $3.02, just 4% above its $2.90 IPO offer price.

New listings often experience an initial surge on debut day, sometimes extending for a few sessions, before coming back down to earth. What you'd want to see here is for the selling to stabilise and for the stock to start trading sideways, setting itself up for a potential breakout in the future (much like previous listings like Cuscal, Alfabs, Tasmea etc.)

A potential rotation from CBA to BHP

[1:15 pm] BHP is performing abnormally strong, currently trading around sessions highs of +4.5% to $38.90. This far outpaces gains from peers Rio Tinto (+1.1%) and Fortescue (+0.9%).

At the same time, Commonwealth Bank shares have slipped another 1.8%.

The below table observes CBA declines of 2.0% or more and how BHP performed on the same day, dating back to August 2024. The results show a clear pattern: when CBA falls sharply, BHP often rallies 3-4%.

Source: Author's own research | 3 July 2025 performance as at 11:00 am AEDT

By Kerry Sun

Gemlife trading 5% higher

[1:12 pm] Gemlife made its ASX debut at 12:00 pm AEST, opening 5.2% higher at $4.38 and briefly up 7.4% to $4.47.

Top gainers and losers at noon.

[12:00 pm] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers at noon.

Massive day for resources

[11:48 am] The resource sector is soaring today, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index up 2.4% and up 6.5% since its 23 June low. The Index is set to cross the key 200-day moving average, though prior breakouts have been relatively short lived.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials Chart (Source: TradingView)

By Kerry Sun

UBS brings forward rate cut call to July from August

[11:31 am] One of Australia's top economic teams has updated its forecasts for a 25 basis point rate cut to July from August.

Lithium futures surge 5.2%, light fire under lithium stocks

[11:16 am] Benchmark spodumene CIF China lithium futures added 5.2% to $US666 a tonne on hopes of stimulus out of Beijing for its industrial and property sectors.

The move lit a fire under local lithium stocks, with Pilbara Minerals adding 12% to $1.53 and Mineral Resources jumping 7%, with Liontown up 6.8%.

NAB on tonight's US jobs data

[10:55 am] NAB's economics team has told investors to note the US Fed's latest dot plot chart for cash rates includes a forecast for the US jobless rate to reach 4.55 through the fourth quarter.

The market now expects 65 basis points in rate cuts from the US Fed through the remainder of 2025.

"Payrolls is the focus tonight, where consensus is for a 110k payrolls gain and a slight lift in the unemployment rate to 4.3%," said NAB. "It would take more than that to dent FOMC members comfort the labour market is resilient enough to wait beyond July for more clarity on inflation and the outlook. CPI data on 15 July also important. There are 6bp priced for July and 65 by year-end, similar to what was priced a week ago."

Broker RBC on Pro Medicus's latest giant contract

[10:49 am] The medical imaging group is up 12% to a record $312 this morning and broker RBC has updated its latest views below.

"Landing another win with $170m 10-Year contract with UCHealth to replace its legacy PACS with Visage Viewer, Workflow, Archive, and Cardiology imaging," RBC said.

"UCHealth is a Colorado-based network of 14 hospitals with affiliate hospitals, clinic locations, and healthcare providers extending throughout Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska. This will see ~$1.7m of minimum annualised contract value added to our contracted revenue build-up with the uptake of Cardiology showing PME is making headway in other 'ologies. Go-live targeted for Q2 of 2026 calendar year."

Iron ore rises to a 3-week high of US$95.65 per tonne

[10:32 am] Westpac says iron ore is rallying on hopes of more stimulus out of Beijing as the country's property sector remains under pressure and it deals with deflation.

Shares in BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are all rising.

Gold miners are also higher across the board as gold climbed overnight to $US3345 a tonne.

BHP jumps 3.8%, heads for best day in 2025

[10:24 am] The big iron and copper miner is up to $38.60 as iron ore prices jumped on Beijing's hints at policy changes related to support its construction sector. Other iron ore heavyweights including Rio Tinto and Fortescue are higher in early trade, with the resources sector up 2%.

Pro Medicus shares top $300

[10:0 5am] The stock hit a high of $301.37 in early trade as investors cheered a giant $170 million 10-year contract in the US.

Morgan Stanley lifts Macquarie price target to $216

[10:00 am] The broker has lifted its valuation on the investment bank's shares to $216 from $199.

"We see a better earnings outlook heading into MQG's 1Q AGM update, given better global capital markets and increasing pressure from LPs [limited partners] on private markets to distribute capital," said analyst Andrei Stadnik.

The broker has pencilled in Macquarie to pay $7.40 per share in dividends in FY 2026.

Trump says Fed chair "should resign immediately"

[09:51 am] US President Trump has used Truth Social to demand US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's immediate resignation.

Trump has claimed the US central bank should cut rates to 1% in quick time.

Wall Street's hottest tech stock adds nearly 500% since IPO

[09:40 am] Shares in stablecoin and tokenisation giant Circle eased 7.5% overnight, but the stocks is still up nearly 6-fold or 500% since its initial public offer on June 7 at $US31 per share. Shares closed at $US177.97 on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, overnight on Wall Street Tesla shares jumped more than 5% after it reported June quarter deliveries around 384,000, which is down more than 13% on the prior corresponding quarter. The EV giant will post earnings on July 25.

UBS is buy rated on Judo Bank

[09:30 am] In a research note last week UBS said business lender Judo Bank could grow earnings per share at a 3-year compound growth rate of 40% out to FY 2027. The broker is one of a number that is buy rated and values the stock at $2.20, versus a market price of $1.60.

GemLife Communities to hit ASX boards

[9:19 am] The retirement homes group will float this morning at an issue price of $4.16 per share after raising $750 million in a bookbuild run by Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan. It will trade under the ticker ASX:GLF

Gold miner Anitpa Minerals to raise money, touted as takeover target

[9:20 am] Specualtive gold explorer Antipa Minerals is in a trading halt as it flags plans to rasie capital. The West Australian business has been touted as a takeover target, with broker Euroz Hartleys even claiming it's "only a matter of time" before Greatland Gold makes a bid. Greatland is part owned by Andrew Forrest's Wyloo investment group.

Pro Medicus signs $170 million 10-year contract with UCHealth

[9:17 am] Shares in the medical software juggernaut have soared nearly 1000% over the past years as it proves itself a market leader in the lucrative US healthcare market. The company's profit margins are very high and investors are now running the ruler on how it can use AI to improve its software services.

UK bond yields jump, sterling falls

[9:06 am] Investors worried about the UK's fiscal position and debt under the policies of its Labour government pushed yields on UK 10-year government bonds 20 basis points higher to 4.7% overnight. The UK pound also slid against major currencies including the Australian dollar that added 0.8% to buy 48.2 pence.

Key long term US borrowing rates have edged lower over the past week to encourage investors to push US stocks to new record highs. The US 10-year fell 1 basis point to 4.28% and the 30-year is down 2 basis points to 4.81%.

Lower borrowing costs are generally cheered by share market investors.

US banks lift dividends, approve new buybacks

[8:59 am] Major US banks hiked their quarterly dividends and approved new buyback programs after passing the Federal Reserve's 2025 stress tests. These tests confirmed that the banks are well-positioned to weather a severe economic downturn, enabling them to return excess capital to shareholders. Notable moves include:

• JPMorgan lifted its quarterly dividend from US$1.40 to US$1.50, approved a new US$50bn share buyback program

• Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend by 8% from 26 cents to 28 cents, no specific new buyback program was detailed in the announcement

• Wells Fargo hiked its quarterly dividend by 12.5% from 40 cents to 45 cents, did not commit to a specific new buyback program but indicated capacity to repurchase shares over the four quarters

• Citi raised its quarterly dividend from 56 cents to 60 cents

By Kerry Sun

Broker upgrades, downgrades and target changes

[8:50 am] Here's a list of broker updates that have crossed our desk this morning.

• ALS initiated Buy with $19.45 target (CITI)

• Bellevue Gold downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $0.90 from $1.00 (JPM)

• G8 Education downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $1.15 from $1.53 (GEM)

• Genesis Minerals initiated Neutral with $5.00 target (GS)

• Genesis Minerals downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $4.40 from $4.60 (JPM)

• Greatland Resources initiated Neutral with $7.80 target (GS)

• Helia Group upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target up to $3.35 from $3.25 (MQG)

• Paladin Energy downgraded to Underweight from Neutral; target remains $6.00 (JPM)

• Pantoro initiated Buy with $3.70 target (GS)

• Ramelius Resources initiated Neutral with $2.75 target (GS)

• South32 downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $3.30 from $3.50 (JPM)

• Vault Minerals initiated Buy with $0.48 target (GS)

• Westgold Resources initiated Buy with $3.50 target (GS)

By Kerry Sun

What's driving stocks?

[8:45 am] On Wednesday, investors rotated out of high-flying tech stocks and into defensive, value and small caps (Nasdaq down 0.82% vs. Dow up 0.91%). Today, it was the opposite, with the Dow slightly lower and Nasdaq up 0.94% to a fresh all-time high.

• Reversal of yesterday's rotation, led by names like Tesla (+4.9%), Nvidia (+2.5%) and Apple (+2.2%)

• Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, which includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US and a 40% levy on goods that have been transshipped through the country

• US private payrolls unexpectedly contracted ~33,000 vs. expectations of a 115,000 gain, marking the first negative month since March 2023

• Tesla's second quarter deliveries were relatively in-line with expectations, a solid outcome given deteriorating sales and fierce price competition in China

• Major US banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi announced new buybacks and higher dividends after passing recent Fed stress tests

By Kerry Sun

Good morning!

[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are down 11pts (-0.12%) despite a strong lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh all-time highs.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.