Earnings Wrap: BHP and Coles miss analysts estimates, Woodside delivers on growth

BHP (ASX: BHP)

One liner: Double miss, lagged effect of inflation expected to continue to impact business in FY24, record WA iron ore production, achieved full-year guidance for copper, iron ore, coal and nickel.

• Revenue down 17% to US$53.8bn vs. US$54.3bn expected

• Underlying attributable profit down 37% to US$13.4bn vs. $13.7bn expected

• Final dividend of $0.80 cents per share

"Commodity demand has remained relatively robust in China and India even as developed world economies have slowed substantially. In the near term, China’s trajectory is contingent on the effectiveness of recent policy measures. We expect buoyant growth in India with strong construction activity underpinning an expansion in steelmaking capacity," the company said in a statement.

Outlook

• FY24 production guidance for iron ore, copper and nickel unchanged

• Guides to FY24 capex and exploration expenditure of US$10.0bn

• "On the cost front, we expect that the lag effect of the inflation peaks observed in FY23 and continued labour market tightness will continue to impact our cost base throughout FY24."

Kogan (ASX: KGN)

One liner: Profit slightly ahead of consensus, revenue softer-than-expected, inventories down more than 57% year-on-year (now aligned with current demand),

• Revenue down 31.9% to $489.5 million down versus the $504.6 million expected by analysts

• Active customer down 31% to 2.19 million

• Adjusted NPAT of $7.7 million, just ahead of the $7.6 million consensus expectation

“For the first time ever, Kogan's platform-based sales contributed the majority of our Gross Sales and Gross Profit. Importantly this has enabled us to deliver better quality earnings as we successfully transitioned into a higher margin, lower risk, platform and software based business,” said founder and CEO Ruslan Kogan.

Outlook

• Expects the numbers of Kogan First Subscribers to accelerate following the expansion of the program

• Continued growth of vertical businesses,A return to growth in Kogan Marketplace as well as its recently introduced Advertising Platform,

• Launch of a new Vertical in New Zealand, and Continued improvement in its Product Division’s profitability.

Monadelphous (ASX: MND)

One liner: Double beat, secured approximately $2 billion of new contracts and extensions, expects maintenance activity in resource sector is forecast to grow.

• Revenue down 5.2% to $1.82bn, ahead of the $1.78bn expected by analysts

• EBITDA down 1.9% to $109.1m vs. the $107.4m expected

• Net profit up 2.5% to $53.5m vs. the $51.8m expected

“We expect longer-term demand to remain strong across most commodity markets, with high levels of mining and mineral processing development activity anticipated, several new gas construction projects in the development pipeline and maintenance activity levels in the resources and energy sectors forecast to grow," said Managing Director, Zoran Bebic.

Outlook

• No specific FY24 guidance

• Long-term demand trends remain strong despite short-to-medium term uncertainty relating to China and a possible US recession

• Heightened demand for maintenance and decommissioning services is expected from the energy sector over the coming years

• Skilled labour shortages continue to be a challenge

• "The Company anticipates construction revenue will progressively ramp up over the 2024 financial year with overall Group revenue weighted to the second half."

Woodside (ASX: WDS)

One liner: Double beat, interim dividend eases 27%, agreed scale of 10% interest in Scarborough (for ~$880m) and delivering on growth via via Sangomar first oil in mid-2024. The below figures refer to the company's half-year results to 30 June.

• Production volume up 66% to 91.3MMboe due to contributions from former BHP assets

• Revenue up 27% to $7.4bn vs. $7.39bn expected

• Underlying net profit of $1.90bn vs. $1.80bn expected

• Interim dividend of $0.80 cents per share reflecting an 80% payout of underlying net profit after tax

“Our strong financial performance and our focus on disciplined capital management has enabled us to maintain our interim dividend payout ratio through the cycle," said CEO Meg O'Neil.

Outlook

• Production and capex guidance unchanged vs. prior forecasts

• Full-year guidance of 180-190MMboe

• Woodside capex guidance of $6.0-6.5bn

Coles (ASX: COL)

One liner: Net profit of A$1.10 billion, slightly lower than consensus expectations. Revenue by segment:

• Supermarkets A$36.75bn , reflecting sales growth of +5.8% y/y

• Liquor A$3.61bn reflecting sales growth (0.7%) y/y

• Other A$127m (segment includes the product supply arrangement with Viva Energy following the divestment of Coles Express Fuel and convenience business during the financial year, Coles share of FlyBys net result, and net gains/losses from Coles’ property portfolio)

CEO Leah Weckert said ‘Since demerger, our strategy has been to invest, innovate and driver sustainable growth for Coles. This past year we opened our first Automated Distribution Centre, achieved our target of $1 billion in benefits through our Smarter Selling program, divested our Coles Express business to allow greater focus on the core, opened or refreshed more than 300 stores and brought hundreds of exciting new products to market.’

FY24 Outlook

• Supermarkets: Open 15 new stores, close 5 and refresh 50. In light of cost-of-living pressures, focus on delivering trusted benefits to consumers, including expanding offerings of alternatives to dining out

• Liquor: Open 20 new stores, close 6 and refresh 100

• Other: No material property divestments expected, partially offset by full year of product supply arrangement with Viva Energy

• Opex of A$1.2bn to A$1.4bn reflecting investment in Kemps Creek ADC and automated CFCs

• Depreciation and amortisation of A$1.65bn

Monash IVF (ASX: MVF)

One liner: FY23 results mostly in-line with consensus, significant infrastructures completed, optimistic about FY24.

• NPAT of $25.34m up 14.5% (vs. $25.7m expected)

• Revenue up 11.1% to $213.6m (vs. $212.5m expected)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $53.4m up 11% (vs. $55.8m expected)

• Fully franked final dividend of 2.2 cps

CEO MIchael Knap ‘The benefits from our significant recent investment in infrastructure and services are becoming evident, and should underpin market growth in the future.’

FY24 Outlook

• Confident revenue and underlying NPAT will grow in FY24 due to a range of factors including

• Conversation of strong new patient registrations generated in FY23

• Capitalising on growth from reproductive genetic screening

• Increases in domestic ultrasound and IVF patient pricing in 1H24 across all states anticipated to offset cost base increases

• Further progress in South East Asian growth strategy including ramp up of activity in Singapore and Bali fertility clinics.

Megaport (ASX: MP1)

One liner: Shares set to surge after FY24 EBITDA guidance was upgraded to $51-57m (up 152%-182% vs. FY24).

• Revenue of $153.1 million also met analyst estimates

• Net Cash outflow of $35.4 million, an $15.4 million improvement on FY22

• Positive net Cash Flow result of $2.3 million in 4Q2023 was a record, the first positive quarter in its history

“FY23 saw us celebrate record Annual Recurring Revenue of $178.6M, up 39% YoY. Strong revenue growth coupled with improved operating efficiencies resulted in a tremendous turnaround in the Company’s financial position,” said Megaport’s CEO Michael Reid.

Outlook

• Looking for FY24 to be Net Cash Flow positive, excluding any strategic investments.

• Expected FY24 EBITDA growth of between 152% and 182% year on year. This upgrades the previous EBITDA guidance to a range of between $51 million and $57 million.

• Revenue in fiscal 2024 is expected to be in the range $190 million to $195 million, an increase of 24% to 27% on fiscal 2023.

ARB Corp (ASX: ARB)

One liner: Net profit down 27.5% year-on-year to $88.5m, which was well below consensus expectations of $96.0m. Key performance metrics:

• Sales revenue of A$671.2m down 3.4% on pcp, with a shift in revenue share towards the Australian aftermarket, 57.2% up from 53.8% in FY23.

• Result attributed to continuing shortages of fitting personnel and supply chain challenges

• Final dividend 30cps, fully franked

From Chairman Robert Fraser, ‘The company’s outlook remains positive, with ongoing health demand for ARB’s products, improving new vehicle supply around the world, stronger gross profits and new products recently and soon to be released to the market.’

Outlook

• Anticipates sales and profits to grow in FY24

• Gross profit percentage has recovered to historical levels with recent price increases now fully in effect and product costs moderating after a period of strong global inflation

• Outlook remains positive with ongoing healthy demand for ARB's products, improving new vehicle supply around the world, stronger gross profits and new products recently and soon to be released to market

• Pursuing a number of exciting long-term opportunities focusing on export markets, new partners, the release of new products, further expansion of ARB's store network and improved distribution in Australia and internationally