Financial Services

Bank margins poised to bottom in the next 12-months: Credit Suisse

Tue 15 Mar 22, 1:10pm (AEST)
CBA 1 Banks

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Key Points

  • Credit Suisse thinks bank margins will bottom in the next 12-months
  • The investment bank favors regional/smaller banks
  • Of the big 4 banks, ANZ was viewed to have the most upside

Credit Suisse analysts upgraded several local banks with the view that looming interest rate hikes will drive higher margins in the short-to-medium term.

Net interest margins at a glance 

Net interest margins (NIM) have been on a steady decline since 2018, primarily driven by:

  • Home loan customer switching

  • Pressure from home loan competition

  • Higher short-term funding costs

  • Low interest rate environment

The below graph depicts Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) margins since FY11.

CBA NIM

CBA's half-year FY22 results reported an all-time low NIM of 1.92%.

Let the tightening begin

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the RBA to raise interest rates by 15 bps to 0.25% in the July-September quarter.

21 of 28 economists expect rates to reach 1.25% by the end of 2023.

Higher interest rates typically expands the difference between the interest banks pay to customers and the interest the bank earns from mortgages.

Credit Suisse believes the rising interest rate environment will see margins bottom somewhere between the second-half of FY22 and first-half of FY23.

There could be a lag between interest rate hikes and NIM expansion, but investment bank expects NIM to recover 11 to 18 basis points thereafter.

Depending on where the margin trough is, this could see NIM rebound back to 2018 levels.

Credit Suisse was more upbeat about regional and smaller banks.

Between the big four banks, Australia and New Zealand Bank (ASX: ANZ) held the largest upside, with an Outperform rating and a $30.80 target price.

Whereas the other big banks were Neutral rated with price targets representing 1-7% upside based on today's prices.

 

Written By

Kerry Sun

Finance Writer & Social Media

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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